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Jockey profile

Niall Prendergast

176 rides in the last 5 seasons · 64 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Oct 2025 99% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)
from 1 Jan 2022
6–176
Wins / Runs
3.4%
Strike rate
n=176
25 (14%)
Placed
0.87
Fair A/E
n=176 · 0.68 incl. margin
−95.50
£1 level stake
n=176 at SP · −54.3%
£83,275
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
18.8%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 40 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.87).

Deterministic profile computed from 176 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 6 Nov 2026
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=33, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 2.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.76 and −59.00 to a £1 stake over 112 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. The rider also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (8%, n=50) and off a 31-60-day break (6.5%, n=31). The record reads poorly over 2m5f – 3m — 0% over 58 rides, 3.4pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.4% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
1.8%−1.6
n=57 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −31.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
37.5%+34.1
n=8 · A/E 3.75 · £1 +21.50
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−3.4
n=33 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −33.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
3.4%+0.0
n=175 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −94.50
Big fields · 14+ runners
2.7%−0.7
n=112 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −59.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.4
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Paul Hennessy 12.9% vs 3.4% · n=31
Over 1m5f – 2m 8% vs 3.4% · n=50
Over 2m5f – 3m 0% vs 3.4% · n=58
On Heavy going 0% vs 3.4% · n=31
Off a 31-60-day break 6.5% vs 3.4% · n=31
With John Patrick Ryan 6.3% vs 3.4% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 133 5 3.8% −57.00
Chase 36 1 2.8% −31.50
NH Flat 5 0 0% −5.00
Flat 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 72 3 4.2% −40.50
Good 38 1 2.6% −23.00
Good to Soft 35 2 5.7% −1.00
Heavy 31 0 0% −31.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Clonmel 25 2 8% +0.00
Ballinrobe 19 0 0% −19.00
Punchestown 16 1 6.3% +1.00
Kilbeggan 13 2 15.4% −0.50
Gowran Park 13 0 0% −13.00
Tramore 12 0 0% −12.00
Cork 11 0 0% −11.00
Limerick 10 0 0% −10.00
Wexford 7 0 0% −7.00
Naas 6 0 0% −6.00
Fairyhouse 5 0 0% −5.00
Thurles 5 0 0% −5.00
Downpatrick 5 0 0% −5.00
Listowel 4 0 0% −4.00
Leopardstown 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 0 0% 0.00 −2.00
2nd–3rd fav 12 2 16.7% 1.28 +0.50
4th–6th fav 40 2 5% 0.84 −15.00
7th+ in betting 122 2 1.6% 0.73 −79.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
81.7% completed · 169 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 36 72.2% 3 2 5 0 0
Hurdle 133 84.2% 5 2 13 1 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Falcon Park (IRE) 12 2 4 23 Jan 25
Roccorionach (IRE) 12 0 3 17 Jun 24
Ella Rose (IRE) 11 0 1 3 Dec 24
Steelers Appeal (IRE) 9 0 0 9 Sep 24
Gonedairy (IRE) 7 0 1 15 Sep 23
Saint Bernadette (IRE) 7 0 2 26 May 23
Angelofthemorning (IRE) 6 0 0 7 Jun 24
Littletwinklestar (IRE) 6 0 1 14 Aug 23
Karetta Davis (FR) 6 0 0 29 Sep 22
Apples In Winter (IRE) 5 0 2 3 Mar 25
Highland Sting (IRE) 5 0 0 30 May 23
Badgerisland (IRE) 5 0 0 17 Nov 22
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 64 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
500090055009
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardJohn Patrick Ryan
18% of all rides
6.3% SR · A/E 1.69
TrainerRWSR£1
John Patrick Ryan 32 2 6.3% +9.00
Paul Hennessy 31 4 12.9% +8.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→
7
Archived wins
£107k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 3 wins
Gaelic Arc (IRE) — Botanica International Rated Novice Hurdle Clonmel · May 2022
£9,440
Falcon Park (IRE) — Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-95) Punchestown · Dec 2024
£7,375
Heaven Help Us (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race Navan · Jan 2019
£6,776
Notable horses
Falcon Park (IRE) Gaelic Arc (IRE) Heaven Help Us (IRE) Ocean Of Mercy (IRE) Faithful Follower (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Arcadio (GER) 26.7% · 4–15
Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,979 runs since 2011 (375 horses).
Ask (GB) 8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,218 runs since 2014 (283 horses).
Shirocco (GER) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 11.1% of 9,185 runs since 2010 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.
Leading Light (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 8.2% of 2,214 runs since 2018 (226 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.6% from 241.
Beneficial (GB) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Policy Maker (IRE) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 9% of 1,249 runs since 2010 (144 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.5% from 199. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.7% from 127.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 269 · newest first

The latest 50 of 269 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 1 January 2016 to 2 October 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
02 Oct 25 Clonmel Ocean Of Mercy (IRE)T: Paul Hennessy Irish Stallion Farms EBF Captain Christy Rated Novice Chase24f · Good To Yielding · 6 ran F 7/2
25 Sep 25 Listowel Kilbarry Ce Ce (IRE)T: C O'Keeffe Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 11th 11/1
20 Sep 25 Navan Jacovec Cavern (GB)T: Paul Hennessy Meath Farm Machinery Maiden Hurdle21f · Yielding · 14 ran 2nd 9/2
20 Sep 25 Navan Faithful Follower (IRE)T: Paul Hennessy SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle16f · Yielding · 16 ran 11th 16/1
12 Sep 25 Ballinrobe Kilbarry Ce Ce (IRE)T: C O'Keeffe Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle18f · Soft · 14 ran 5th 8/1
05 Sep 25 Kilbeggan Ocean Of Mercy (IRE)T: Paul Hennessy Clarke's Bar Mullingar Beginners Chase20.5f · Yielding · 8 ran 1st 7/2
27 Aug 25 Bellewstown Jacovec Cavern (GB)T: Paul Hennessy Bective Stud Tea Rooms & Apartments Mullacurry Cup Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good · 13 ran 3rd 8/1
09 Aug 25 Kilbeggan Faithful Follower (IRE)T: Paul Hennessy Jim Ryan Racecourse Services Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 7 ran 1st 7/1
25 Apr 25 Kilbeggan Onyx Storm (IRE)T: Paul Hennessy Spring Two Day N.H. Race Meeting Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 14 ran UR 12/1
14 Apr 25 Tramore Onyx Storm (IRE)T: Paul Hennessy Ladies Day August 16th Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 8 ran 2nd 33/1
20 Mar 25 Cork Jacovec Cavern (GB)T: Paul Hennessy Albert Bartlett Triple Crown Series At Punchestown Festival 2025 Qualifier Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 20 ran F 6/1J
03 Mar 25 Leopardstown Apples In Winter (IRE)T: Liam Casey QuinnBet Handicap Hurdle24f · Yielding · 16 ran 10th 20/1
15 Feb 25 Gowran Park Onyx Storm (IRE)T: Paul Hennessy Ronan Lawlor Memorial Irish EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race17f · Soft · 14 ran 9th 80/1
25 Jan 25 Fairyhouse Onyx Storm (IRE)T: Paul Hennessy SBK (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Soft · 7 ran 7th 50/1
23 Jan 25 Gowran Park Falcon Park (IRE)T: Paul Hennessy Langtons Kilkenny Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Soft To Heavy · 16 ran 2nd 6/1
15 Jan 25 Clonmel Falcon Park (IRE)T: Paul Hennessy Lisronagh Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Soft · 15 ran 1st 9/1
31 Dec 24 Punchestown Falcon Park (IRE)T: Paul Hennessy Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16.5f · Soft · 18 ran 1st 16/1
28 Dec 24 Leopardstown Finest Evermore (IRE)T: Paul Hennessy Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier)23.5f · Yielding · 20 ran PU 66/1
16 Dec 24 Naas Falcon Park (IRE)T: Paul Hennessy Kieron Gammel Naas Member Handicap Chase (0-102)16f · Yielding · 18 ran UR 50/1
03 Dec 24 Clonmel Ella Rose (IRE)T: D E Prendergast Kilsheelan Handicap Hurdle (80-95)19.5f · Yielding · 15 ran 11th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Niall Prendergast's strike rate?
Niall Prendergast has won 6 of 176 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 3.4% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Niall Prendergast's Fair A/E?
0.87, from 176 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).