Skip to content
Trainer profile

S M Duffy

265 runners in the last 5 seasons · 35 individual horses
As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)
from 1 Jan 2022
7–265
Wins / Runs
2.6%
Strike rate
n=265
34 (13%)
Placed
0.72
Fair A/E
n=265 · 0.56 incl. margin
−180.00
£1 level stake
n=265 at SP · −67.9%
£86,089
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
4.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 50 runners a season, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.72).

Deterministic profile computed from 265 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 1.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.57 and −102.50 to a £1 stake over 114 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well on Heavy going (10%, n=30). The market has consistently overbet the yard on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 0.00 across 56 runners (0% strike, −56.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: War Room (IRE) — 7 wins from 48 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−2.6
n=46 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −46.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.6
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.6
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.6
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.6
n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +0.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.8%−0.8
n=114 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −102.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Heavy going 10% vs 2.6% · n=30
Over 1m5f – 2m 5.5% vs 2.6% · n=55
On Standard (AW) going 0% vs 2.6% · n=56
At Dundalk (AW) 0% vs 2.6% · n=55
In Hurdle races 0% vs 2.6% · n=33
Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 2.6% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 232 7 3% −147.00
Hurdle 33 0 0% −33.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 81 2 2.5% −71.00
Good 69 1 1.4% −63.00
Standard (AW) 56 0 0% −56.00
Heavy 30 3 10% +36.00
Good to Soft 23 0 0% −23.00
Good to Firm 6 1 16.7% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 55 0 0% −55.00
Gowran Park 27 1 3.7% −24.00
Curragh 20 0 0% −20.00
Navan 18 2 11.1% +11.00
Listowel 18 0 0% −18.00
Leopardstown 16 0 0% −16.00
Galway 14 2 14.3% −0.50
Cork 10 1 10% +24.00
Limerick 10 0 0% −10.00
Killarney 9 0 0% −9.00
Roscommon 8 0 0% −8.00
Fairyhouse 7 0 0% −7.00
Bellewstown 7 0 0% −7.00
Clonmel 6 0 0% −6.00
Naas 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 6 1 16.7% 0.83 −3.00
2nd–3rd fav 11 3 27.3% 2.13 +5.00
4th–6th fav 40 1 2.5% 0.36 −31.00
7th+ in betting 208 2 1% 0.46 −151.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Talking Tough (IRE)from Michael Mulvany 37 0 2 23 Sep 26
Deluca Chop (FR)from Gerard O'Leary 27 2 11 25 Sep 26
Chopsticks (IRE) 17 0 7 25 Sep 26
Zentopia (IRE)from Gavin Cromwell 16 0 0 26 Sep 25
Phoenix Open (USA)from G M Lyons 15 1 3 15 Dec 23
Purring Along (IRE)from J H Scott · then Lee Smyth 13 2 3 30 Oct 23
Piatra Neamt (IRE) 12 0 0 12 Oct 26
Bright Start (USA)from Denis Gerard Hogan · then Patrick Morris 12 0 2 27 Jun 25
Cannonball Queen (IRE) 11 0 1 19 Oct 26
Molly Kaye (GB) 11 2 3 31 Jan 23
Roman Harry (IRE)from Ms Claire O'Connell 9 0 2 10 Sep 26
May Night (GB)from Denis Gerard Hogan · then Raymond Hurley 9 0 0 19 Jun 25
All 35 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 35 horses listed, 23 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Denis Gerard Hogan (2) and Gerard O'Leary (2); 12 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for Emmet Mullins (2) and Lee Smyth (2); 25 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
000037042700
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Nathan Crosse 27 2 7.4% +11.50
Killian Leonard 25 0 0% −25.00
Shane Foley 16 1 6.3% −7.00
Dylan Browne McMonagle 13 1 7.7% +10.00
Alan Casey 12 0 0% −12.00
Chris Hayes 12 0 0% −12.00
N G McCullagh 9 0 0% −9.00
Patrick McGettigan 9 1 11.1% −3.00
Keithen Kennedy 9 0 0% −9.00
Nicola Burns 8 0 0% −8.00
Jimmy Dalton 8 0 0% −8.00
Cian Horgan 8 0 0% −8.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→
32
Archived wins
£312k
Prize money
2015
Best season · 5 wins
Eadbhard (IRE) — vaughanshoes.ie Ladies Day Today Claiming Maiden Ballinrobe · Jun 2018
£7,700
Akiliyna (IRE) — Tote Best Value For The Galway Festival Maiden Ballinrobe · Jul 2015
£7,590
Faranadooney (USA) — Dr. Louis O'carroll Maiden Hurdle Listowel · Jun 2012
£6,900
Notable horses
War Room (IRE) Molly Kaye (GB) Waterloo Sunrise (IRE) Hello Man (IRE) Deluca Chop (FR) Faranadooney (USA)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Tough As Nails (IRE) 0% · 0–37
Progeny have won 7.4% of 732 runs since 2008 (40 horses).
Panis (USA) 7.4% · 2–27
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,974 runs since 2008 (211 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.3% from 146. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 4.3% from 116.
Zoffany (IRE) 0% · 0–17
Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,761 runs since 2008 (799 horses).
Footstepsinthesand (GB) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,780 runs since 2008 (936 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.
Kuroshio (AUS) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 7.3% of 1,298 runs since 2008 (118 horses). Weakest on Good going: 3.8% from 288.
Scat Daddy (USA) 6.7% · 1–15
Progeny have won 14.2% of 906 runs since 2008 (99 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 19.7% from 198. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 27.4% from 124. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.5% from 134.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 833 · newest first

The latest 50 of 833 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 21 May 2009 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Cannonball Queen (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Racing Club Membership Handicap (Div I)8.5f · Soft · 16 ran 13th 14/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Piatra Neamt (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Thank You For Your Support Handicap12f · Soft · 16 ran 5th 15/2
25 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Chopsticks (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap12f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 22/1
25 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Deluca Chop (FR)J: Patrick McGettigan Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap12f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 10/1
23 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Talking Tough (IRE)J: Mr C G Ryan McSweeney Brothers Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 16 ran F 300/1
21 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Place Your Regrets (IRE)J: Scott McCullagh Eric Browne Memorial Maiden12f · Yielding · 11 ran 11th 500/1
16 Sep 26 Clonmel (IRE) Piatra Neamt (IRE)J: Ms Aine Connolly John Thomas McNamara Series (Q.R.) Handicap17f · Yielding · 7 ran 5th 12/1
16 Sep 26 Clonmel (IRE) Talking Tough (IRE)J: Shane Foley Camida Winning Solution Handicap10f · Yielding · 14 ran 14th 40/1
16 Sep 26 Clonmel (IRE) Place Your Regrets (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Slievenamon Maiden10f · Yielding · 7 ran 7th 200/1
10 Sep 26 Laytown (IRE) Roman Harry (IRE)J: Chris Hayes O'NEILLS.COM Handicap7f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 11/2
09 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Cannonball Queen (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Follow Us On X Handicap7f · Good · 22 ran 7th 8/1
02 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Darwin's Angel (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Navan Handicap (Div II)8f · Good · 16 ran 13th 66/1
02 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Cannonball Queen (IRE)J: Ben Coen Navan Handicap (Div I)8f · Good · 16 ran 6th 17/2
27 Aug 26 Navan (IRE) Deluca Chop (FR)J: Paddy Harnett Racing Next At Navan On Saturday September 5th Handicap14f · Good · 22 ran 3rd 14/1
15 Aug 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Roman Harry (IRE)J: Chris Hayes BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 20/1
06 Aug 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Cannonball Queen (IRE)J: Ben Coen Carnival de Leop Handicap7f · Good · 17 ran 4th 12/1
05 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) Piatra Neamt (IRE)J: Nicola Burns Rockshore Cider Handicap13.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 8th 20/1
05 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) Deluca Chop (FR)J: Patrick McGettigan Rockshore Cider Handicap13.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 5th 13/2
25 Jul 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Darwin's Angel (IRE)J: Leigh Roche O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Handicap (Div II)7f · Good · 16 ran 13th 50/1
25 Jul 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Roman Harry (IRE)J: N G McCullagh O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Handicap (Div I)7f · Good · 14 ran 8th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is S M Duffy's strike rate?
S M Duffy has won 7 of 265 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 2.6% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does S M Duffy do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 0 wins from 55 runners (0%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is S M Duffy in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is S M Duffy's Fair A/E?
0.72, from 265 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 21 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).