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Trainer profile

Paul Hennessy

97 runners in the last 5 seasons · 14 individual horses
As at 26 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 23 days ago 90% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)
from 1 Jan 2022
8–97
Wins / Runs
8.2%
Strike rate
n=97
22 (23%)
Placed
1.26
Fair A/E
n=97 · 1.02 incl. margin
+12.70
£1 level stake
n=97 at SP · +13.1%
£125k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
9.5%
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 11.1%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.7%+0.5
n=23 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +13.20
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.1%+2.9
n=9 · A/E 2.07 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.2
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.2
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
25%+16.8
n=4 · A/E 4.01 · £1 +13.00
When favourite
25%
n=4 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −1.80
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
11.1%+2.9
n=54 · A/E 1.90 · £1 +38.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.2
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking 0% vs 8.2% · n=35
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 13.3% vs 8.2% · n=30
With Niall Prendergast 12.9% vs 8.2% · n=31
With claiming riders up 11.1% vs 8.2% · n=54
On Soft going 11.1% vs 8.2% · n=36
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 61 5 8.2% +10.20
NH Flat 14 1 7.1% +1.00
Chase 12 2 16.7% +11.50
Flat 10 0 0% −10.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 36 4 11.1% +29.50
Good 24 1 4.2% −21.80
Heavy 19 2 10.5% +15.00
Good to Soft 15 1 6.7% −7.00
Standard (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown 13 2 15.4% +38.00
Gowran Park 11 1 9.1% +8.00
Kilbeggan 8 2 25% +4.50
Clonmel 6 1 16.7% +4.00
Naas 6 0 0% −6.00
Cheltenham 5 0 0% −5.00
Ballinrobe 5 1 20% −2.80
Fairyhouse 5 0 0% −5.00
Cork 5 0 0% −5.00
Bellewstown 4 0 0% −4.00
Limerick 4 1 25% +11.00
Dundalk (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00
Wexford 3 0 0% −3.00
Tramore 3 0 0% −3.00
Navan 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 14 0 0% −14.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 6 1 16.7% 0.65 −3.80
2nd–3rd fav 12 2 16.7% 1.14 +0.50
4th–6th fav 22 2 9.1% 1.16 +3.00
7th+ in betting 57 3 5.3% 2.24 +13.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
78.1% completed · 73 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 12 75% 1 1 1 0 0
Hurdle 61 78.7% 3 2 8 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Jacovec Cavern (GB)from Mick Channon 26 2 8 3 Oct 26
Falcon Park (IRE)then John Joseph Hanlon 18 2 4 23 Jan 25
Faithful Follower (IRE) 9 1 1 19 Jun 26
Ocean Of Mercy (IRE) 8 2 4 2 Oct 25
Onyx Storm (IRE) 6 0 1 29 Aug 25
Of Land And Sea (IRE)from Ms Margaret Mullins 5 1 1 24 Sep 26
Heaven Help Us (IRE) 5 0 2 19 Nov 22
Another Belter (IRE)from David K Walsh 4 0 1 27 Oct 25
Finest Evermore (IRE)from W P Mullins 4 0 0 17 Jan 25
Daily Devotion (IRE) 3 0 0 17 Jul 26
Marys Call (IRE) 3 0 0 31 Oct 23
Slate Lane (IRE)then Emmet Mullins 3 0 0 11 Mar 23
All 14 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 14 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from W P Mullins (2); 8 had their first archived run for this yard.

2 have since run for another yard; 12 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
101309000181402525
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderNiall Prendergast
32% of all rides
12.9% SR · A/E 2.42
RiderRWSR£1
Niall Prendergast 31 4 12.9% +8.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→
19
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£363k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 5 wins
Heaven Help Us (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) Leopardstown · Feb 2021 · Grade B
£59,000
Heaven Help Us (IRE) — Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2021 · Grade 3
£42,203
Jacovec Cavern (GB) — Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle Punchestown · Apr 2026
£17,670
Notable horses
Heaven Help Us (IRE) First Friday (IRE) Jacovec Cavern (GB) Falcon Park (IRE) Cheers Buddy (IRE) Ocean Of Mercy (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Sixties Icon (GB) 7.7% · 2–26
Progeny have won 10% of 5,667 runs since 2008 (337 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 264. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.4% from 1,332.
Arcadio (GER) 11.1% · 2–18
Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,977 runs since 2008 (375 horses).
Policy Maker (IRE) 6.7% · 1–15
Progeny have won 9.1% of 1,244 runs since 2008 (143 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.6% from 197. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.8% from 125.
Ask (GB) 18.2% · 2–11
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,215 runs since 2008 (283 horses).
Yeats (IRE) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,820 runs since 2008 (705 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 203. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 818.
Crystal Ocean (GB) 20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 12.7% of 432 runs since 2008 (121 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 268 · newest first

The latest 50 of 268 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 29 April 2011 to 3 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
03 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Jack Duggan Memorial Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 4th 14/1
24 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Of Land And Sea (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 14 ran PU 9/2
08 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Poolcourt Engineering Handicap Steeplechase25f · Good · 7 ran 6th 17/2
17 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Lee Strand Handicap Hurdle23f · Good · 16 ran PU 7/1
17 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Daily Devotion (IRE)J: Richard Condon Killarney Grand Mares Maiden Hurdle23f · Good · 15 ran PU 300/1
19 Jun 26 Limerick Faithful Follower (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan McMahons Builders Providers Maiden12.5f · Soft · 12 ran 11th 100/1
15 Jun 26 Kilbeggan Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Paul & Carmel Fay Memorial Handicap Hurdle24.5f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 3rd 3/1F
15 Jun 26 Kilbeggan Maximillian Lady (IRE)J: Richard Condon Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Mares Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran PU 6/1
25 May 26 Ballinrobe Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon McHale Mayo Handicap Hurdle22.5f · Good · 16 ran 2nd 7/1
13 May 26 Punchestown Daily Devotion (IRE)J: Alan O'Sullivan Ladbrokes (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 13th 50/1
05 May 26 Gowran Park Faithful Follower (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Thomastown Maiden8f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 15th 250/1
29 Apr 26 Punchestown Maximillian Lady (IRE)J: Mr O McGill Weatherbys General Stud Book Irish EBF Mares Flat Race (Grade 3)16.5f · Yielding · 16 ran 12th 16/1
29 Apr 26 Punchestown Of Land And Sea (IRE)J: Mr O McGill Race & Stay At Punchestown Champion I.N.H. Flat Race (Grade 1)16.5f · Yielding · 10 ran 10th 66/1
29 Apr 26 Punchestown Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Yielding · 24 ran 1st 33/1
11 Apr 26 Bellewstown Faithful Follower (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan David McKeown A1 Generators Maiden11.5f · Soft · 15 ran 13th 100/1
11 Mar 26 Cheltenham Of Land And Sea (IRE)J: Richard Condon Weatherbys Champion Bumper (In Memory Of Sir Johnny Weatherby) (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Grade 1) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good · 21 ran 21st 150/1
07 Mar 26 Gowran Park Daily Devotion (IRE)J: Ms C Horgan 'Doc's Bumper' Flat Race18f · Heavy · 9 ran 8th 40/1
14 Feb 26 Gowran Park Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Albert Bartlett Triple Crown Series At Punchestown Festival 2026 Qualifier Handicap Hurdle20f · Heavy · 14 ran 10th 13/2
10 Feb 26 Limerick Of Land And Sea (IRE)J: Mr P W Mullins Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction (Pro/Am) Flat Race15.5f · Heavy · 7 ran 1st 14/1
25 Jan 26 Naas Jacovec Cavern (GB)J: Richard Condon Clinton Higgins Chartered Accountants Novice Handicap Chase20f · Heavy · 11 ran 10th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Hennessy's strike rate?
Paul Hennessy has won 8 of 97 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.2% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Paul Hennessy's Fair A/E?
1.26, from 97 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 26 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).