What is Paddy Aspell's strike rate?

Paddy Aspell has won 116 of 2,607 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 4.4% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paddy Aspell do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 8 wins from 107 rides (7.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Paddy Aspell ride most for?

John Wainwright, with 247 rides since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (0.8%).

What is Paddy Aspell's Fair A/E?

0.76, from 2,594 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Paddy Aspell

2,607 rides in the lifetime window · 1,062 individual horses

As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Dec 2018

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

116–2,607

Wins / Runs

4.4%

Strike rate

n=2,607

460 (18%)

Placed

0.76

Fair A/E

n=2,594 · 0.65 incl. margin

−1,321.14

£1 level stake

n=2,607 at SP · −50.7%

£927k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.3%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 240 times a season, across both codes, winning on 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.76). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 10% (135 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,607 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Dec–Mar 24.3% when favourite John Wainwright: 0.8% from 247 LTO winners: 9.6% Rode the favourite in 3% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 9.6% (n=135, Fair A/E 0.75). The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 2% strike, Fair A/E 0.53 and −304.00 to a £1 stake over 497 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. John Wainwright supplied 9% of the rides and sits below the rider's average (0.8% vs 4.4%, A/E 0.16). The rider also read well in Chase races (8.8%, n=386). The standout partner of the record was Silver Sedge (IRE) — 6 wins from 21 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Dec–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.4% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

3.6%−0.8

n=995 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −525.75

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

9.6%+5.2

n=135 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −38.92

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

2.9%−1.5

n=487 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −237.50

When favourite

24.3%

n=70 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −14.22

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

0%−4.4

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Big fields · 14+ runners

2%−2.4

n=497 · A/E 0.53 · £1 −304.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−4.4

n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Phil McEntee 14.3% vs 4.4% · n=63

In Chase races 8.8% vs 4.4% · n=386

On last-time-out winners 9.6% vs 4.4% · n=135

With Richard Guest 9.6% vs 4.4% · n=125

With Ann Hamilton 10% vs 4.4% · n=80

With J R Jenkins 10% vs 4.4% · n=40

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,441 62 4.3% −725.00

Hurdle 675 18 2.7% −501.50

Chase 386 34 8.8% −63.14

NH Flat 105 2 1.9% −31.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 693 26 3.8% −451.77

Standard (AW) 536 30 5.6% −238.50

Good to Firm 488 20 4.1% −262.20

Good to Soft 420 21 5% −196.00

Soft 344 14 4.1% −88.00

Heavy 119 5 4.2% −77.67

Firm 7 0 0% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 261 18 6.9% −99.75

Newcastle 154 5 3.2% −132.87

Sedgefield 133 7 5.3% −42.00

Catterick 128 4 3.1% −106.65

Kelso 119 8 6.7% −65.37

Southwell (AW) 107 8 7.5% −37.75

Redcar 107 2 1.9% −85.00

Wetherby 103 3 2.9% −79.50

Hexham 96 3 3.1% −57.50

Carlisle 95 5 5.3% −33.50

Hamilton 90 6 6.7% −39.25

Musselburgh 86 5 5.8% −42.50

Market Rasen 86 4 4.7% −50.50

Doncaster 83 5 6% +25.00

Ayr 81 3 3.7% −16.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 826 34 4.1% −409.50

Class 4 794 40 5% −272.94

Class 6 654 24 3.7% −465.25

Class 3 205 13 6.3% −107.70

Class 2 64 3 4.7% −39.25

Class 1 36 1 2.8% −2.00

Class 7 26 1 3.8% −22.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 92 23 25% 1.05 −9.47

2nd–3rd fav 297 31 10.4% 0.73 −115.67

4th–6th fav 702 40 5.7% 0.83 −282.00

7th+ in betting 1,516 22 1.5% 0.55 −914.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Oniz Tiptoes (IRE) 31 1 8 20 Aug 11

Flying Power (GB) 26 4 8 22 Sep 17

Astrophysics (GB) 23 1 7 17 Oct 18

Blue Noodles (GB) 23 1 5 16 Jan 14

Economic Crisis (IRE) 22 3 10 12 Nov 13

Fred Bojangals (IRE) 20 3 8 27 Jan 10

Knockamany Bends (IRE) 18 0 5 31 May 17

Ormus (GB) 18 2 6 19 Nov 10

Ursus (GB) 17 1 6 6 Sep 13

American Lover (FR) 17 0 3 28 Mar 13

Railway Park (IRE) 16 0 1 13 Aug 11

Nile Moon (IRE) 16 2 5 20 Jun 10

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,062 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

666552343358

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardJohn Wainwright

9% of all rides
0.8% SR · A/E 0.16

TrainerRWSR£1

John Wainwright 247 2 0.8% −215.00

James Moffatt 179 9 5% −76.15

Richard Guest 125 12 9.6% −27.50

Michael Easterby 122 8 6.6% −52.75

Lynn Siddall 111 5 4.5% −66.50

Christopher Wilson 98 6 6.1% −53.87

John Norton 97 4 4.1% −71.00

Sandy Forster 90 6 6.7% −32.00

Ann Hamilton 80 8 10% +12.80

Philip Kirby 73 3 4.1% −35.00

Alan Berry 69 5 7.2% −22.00

Phil McEntee 63 9 14.3% +1.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

169

Archived wins

£1.30m

Prize money

2006

Best season · 24 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Chief Dan George (IRE) — William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cheltenham · Mar 2010 · Class 1

£45,608

European Dream (IRE) — John Smith's Scottish County Handicap Hurdle Musselburgh · Feb 2009 · Class 2

£21,917

Chief Dan George (IRE) — Sportingbet.com Veterans' Handicap Chase Doncaster · Feb 2010 · Class 2

£13,010

Notable horses

Silver Sedge (IRE) Flying Power (GB) Chief Dan George (IRE) Little Task (GB) Economic Crisis (IRE) Fred Bojangals (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dubai Destination (USA) 11.8% · 6–51

Progeny have won 11% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.9% from 136.

Rambling Bear (GB) 7.9% · 3–38

Progeny have won 6.6% of 362 runs since 2008 (21 horses).

Paco Boy (IRE) 5.7% · 2–35

Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,449 runs since 2008 (269 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 103.

Russian Revival (USA) 3.2% · 1–31

Progeny have won 5.8% of 104 runs since 2008 (4 horses).

Excellent Art (GB) 11.1% · 3–27

Progeny have won 9.9% of 4,555 runs since 2008 (298 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 451.

Oratorio (IRE) 7.4% · 2–27

Progeny have won 10.6% of 5,063 runs since 2008 (370 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.3% from 455.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,588 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,588 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 February 2005 to 5 December 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

05 Dec 18 Newcastle (AW) Royal Rattle (GB)T: John Norton Follow Top Tipster Templegate At Sunracing Handicap (Div 1)Class 7 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 40/1

30 Nov 18 Southwell (AW) Aljunood (IRE)T: John Norton Follow Sun Racing On Twitter Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 16/1

28 Nov 18 Newcastle (AW) Cool Walk (GB)T: Derek Shaw Ladbrokes Home Of The Odds Boost NurseryClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 100/1

27 Nov 18 Southwell (AW) Evanescent (IRE)T: Stella Barclay Betway Sprint Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 7th 100/1

21 Nov 18 Wolverhampton (AW) Prince of Time (GB)T: Stella Barclay Play 4toScore At Betway Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 50/1

21 Nov 18 Wolverhampton (AW) Mansfield (GB)T: Stella Barclay Play 4toScore At Betway Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 14/1

13 Nov 18 Lingfield Final Choice (GB)T: Adam West starsports.bet Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Heavy · 7 ran 1st 6/1

12 Nov 18 Southwell (AW) Archie Stevens (GB)T: Clare Ellam Betway HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 14th 28/1

10 Nov 18 Doncaster Allsfineandandy (IRE)T: Lynn Siddall Download The Marathonbet App Cock O'The North EBF Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) (Div 1)Class 4 · 6f · Soft · 14 ran 8th 100/1

09 Nov 18 Newcastle (AW) Evanescent (IRE)T: Stella Barclay Sun Racing Top Tips And Previews Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 80/1

07 Nov 18 Nottingham Romany Rose (IRE)T: Conor Dore B&M Installations Maiden Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 8.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 12th 200/1

06 Nov 18 Redcar Ad Vitam (IRE)T: Suzzanne France racinguk.com/freetrial HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Soft · 20 ran 18th 50/1

03 Nov 18 Newcastle (AW) Cosmic Ray (GB)T: Les Eyre Follow Sun Racing On Twitter Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 40/1

03 Nov 18 Newcastle (AW) Little Thornton (GB)T: Stella Barclay Ladbrokes Home Of The Odds Boost Novice Median Auction StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 6 ran 6th 50/1

01 Nov 18 Newcastle (AW) Prince of Time (GB)T: Stella Barclay Betway HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 25/1

01 Nov 18 Newcastle (AW) Mount Cheiron (USA)T: Stella Barclay Follow Sun Racing On Twitter HandicapClass 7 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 33/1

01 Nov 18 Newcastle (AW) Mystical Moon (IRE)T: David C Griffiths sunracing.co.uk HandicapClass 7 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 12/1

30 Oct 18 Catterick Evanescent (IRE)T: Stella Barclay Jump Season Starts 23rd November Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 8th 25/1

29 Oct 18 Redcar Allsfineandandy (IRE)T: Lynn Siddall British Stallion Studs EBF Novice StakesClass 5 · 6f · Soft · 14 ran 8th 80/1

20 Oct 18 Wolverhampton (AW) Mount Cheiron (USA)T: Stella Barclay Watch Today's Replays On The ATR App Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paddy Aspell's strike rate?: Paddy Aspell has won 116 of 2,607 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 4.4% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paddy Aspell do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 8 wins from 107 rides (7.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Paddy Aspell ride most for?: John Wainwright, with 247 rides since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (0.8%).
What is Paddy Aspell's Fair A/E?: 0.76, from 2,594 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.