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Trainer profile

Stella Barclay

955 runners in the last 5 seasons · 80 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 291 days ago 91% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)
from 1 Jan 2022
73–955
Wins / Runs
7.6%
Strike rate
n=955
222 (23%)
Placed
0.97
Fair A/E
n=946 · 0.82 incl. margin
−190.97
£1 level stake
n=955 at SP · −20.0%
£575k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 190 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.97). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 9% (43 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 955 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr 31% when favourite Shane Gray: 3.8% from 80 Sends off the favourite in 4% of races
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3.8% (n=132, Fair A/E 0.95). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 6.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.79 and −118.68 to a £1 stake over 259 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Shane Gray rides 8% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (3.8% vs 7.6%, A/E 0.65). The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (18%, n=50). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 44 runners, 7.6pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Basholo (IRE) — 8 wins from 48 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.8%−3.8
n=132 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −44.38
New recruits · first run for the yard
4.4%−3.2
n=45 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +0.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.6
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.6
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
9.3%+1.7
n=43 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +12.50
When favourite
31%
n=42 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −6.79
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.2%−1.4
n=259 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −118.68
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.6
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Jason Hart 24.1% vs 7.6% · n=58
On last-time-out winners 22.4% vs 7.6% · n=76
Off a 0-7-day break 18% vs 7.6% · n=50
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 7.6% · n=44
With Callum Rodriguez 15.6% vs 7.6% · n=32
With Faye McManoman 1.4% vs 7.6% · n=74
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 866 67 7.7% −169.80
Hurdle 48 2 4.2% −20.00
Chase 34 4 11.8% +5.83
NH Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 542 45 8.3% −194.79
Good 147 13 8.8% −23.93
Good to Soft 95 6 6.3% +116.50
Soft 81 3 3.7% −37.50
Good to Firm 68 5 7.4% −36.25
Heavy 22 1 4.5% −15.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW) 238 19 8% −73.63
Wolverhampton (AW) 192 16 8.3% −66.70
Southwell (AW) 104 10 9.6% −46.46
Hamilton 45 4 8.9% +118.91
Carlisle 42 4 9.5% −13.25
Haydock 38 1 2.6% −32.50
Catterick 31 4 12.9% +27.83
Thirsk 25 3 12% +6.50
Ayr 25 0 0% −25.00
Doncaster 24 1 4.2% −17.00
Redcar 18 2 11.1% −7.67
Nottingham 18 1 5.6% −9.00
Uttoxeter 16 1 6.3% +1.00
Beverley 15 1 6.7% −8.50
Pontefract 14 0 0% −14.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 619 54 8.7% −55.05
Class 5 221 15 6.8% −68.67
Class 4 93 4 4.3% −45.25
Class 3 13 0 0% −13.00
Class 2 8 0 0% −8.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 52 14 26.9% 0.95 −11.79
2nd–3rd fav 157 22 14% 0.93 −44.18
4th–6th fav 293 25 8.5% 1.07 −33.00
7th+ in betting 453 12 2.6% 0.88 −102.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Sir Benedict (IRE)from Charlie Fellowes · then Tony Culhane & Stella Barclay 57 5 18 13 Dec 25
Basholo (IRE)from Brian Meehan · then Tony Culhane & Stella Barclay 48 8 21 2 Jan 26
Balqaa (GB)from Ivan Furtado · then Tony Culhane & Stella Barclay 42 3 14 1 Aug 25
Glorious Rio (IRE)from Charles Hills 40 2 8 24 Jun 24
Danzart (IRE)from Mick Channon 38 4 10 9 Oct 25
Cloch Nua (GB)from George Scott · then Tony Culhane & Stella Barclay 35 6 13 29 Dec 25
Bossy Parker (IRE)from J P Murtagh · then Tony Culhane & Stella Barclay 30 2 5 22 Nov 25
Ghostly (GB)from Mick Channon 30 4 10 7 Mar 24
Mighty Power (IRE)from Alice Haynes · then Lisa Williamson 29 3 6 17 Dec 24
Spirit Of Bowland (GB)then Tony Culhane & Stella Barclay 28 4 6 19 Dec 25
Eva Rosie (GB) 26 4 10 15 Sep 25
Sharrabang (GB) 26 0 5 17 Oct 23
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 80 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 44 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mick Channon (5) and David Loughnane (3); 16 had their first archived run for this yard.

19 have since run for another yard, most often for Tony Culhane & Stella Barclay (14); 41 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
1231212876106452
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderShane Gray
8% of all rides
3.8% SR · A/E 0.65
RiderRWSR£1
Shane Gray 80 3 3.8% +65.50
Faye McManoman 74 1 1.4% −40.00
Callum Shepherd 65 8 12.3% −3.02
Jason Hart 58 14 24.1% +23.13
Zak Wheatley 56 4 7.1% −2.75
Paul Mulrennan 54 5 9.3% −15.75
Alex Jary 33 3 9.1% −19.17
Callum Rodriguez 32 5 15.6% +5.20
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→
106
Archived wins
£809k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 22 wins
Papa Cocktail (IRE) — Penrith Handicap Carlisle · May 2023 · Class 4
£6,543
The Nu Form Way (FR) — Roman Day Community Zone Handicap Chester · May 2023 · Class 4
£6,185
Bossy Parker (IRE) — BetMGM: It's Showtime Handicap Wolverhampton (AW) · Feb 2024 · Class 6
£5,757
Notable horses
Basholo (IRE) Glorious Rio (IRE) Ghostly (GB) Sharrabang (GB) Cloch Nua (GB) Sir Benedict (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Coach House (IRE) 6.5% · 8–124
Progeny have won 8.6% of 2,476 runs since 2008 (145 horses).
Dandy Man (IRE) 9.5% · 9–95
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,917 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
Exceed and Excel (AUS) 10.9% · 6–55
Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,025 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.
Outstrip (GB) 9.4% · 5–53
Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,273 runs since 2008 (239 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 631. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.7% from 263.
Caravaggio (USA) 16.7% · 8–48
Progeny have won 11.7% of 1,767 runs since 2008 (201 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.5% from 164.
Cable Bay (IRE) 7.1% · 3–42
Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,711 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.9% from 641. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 290.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,545 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,545 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 May 2018 to 2 January 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
02 Jan 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Basholo (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 5th 33/1
29 Dec 25 Newcastle (AW) Cloch Nua (GB)J: Zak Wheatley Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 9/1
28 Dec 25 Catterick Rostello (FR)J: Luke Scott Sky Bet Club Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25f · Good · 14 ran 11th 66/1
20 Dec 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Skycutter (FR)J: Stevie Donohoe Midnite, Building The Future Of Betting Handicap (Div 1)Class 5 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 22/1
19 Dec 25 Southwell (AW) Spirit Of Bowland (GB)J: Billy Garritty Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 25/1
13 Dec 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Cloch Nua (GB)J: Stevie Donohoe Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 40/1
13 Dec 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Sir Benedict (IRE)J: Stevie Donohoe Midnite A Next Generation Betting App HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 10/1
01 Dec 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Sir Benedict (IRE)J: Stevie Donohoe Midnite A Next Generation Betting App HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 20/1
27 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Wolf Of Badenoch (GB)J: Stevie Donohoe Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 15/2
27 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Platoon (IRE)J: Paul Mulrennan Win 250,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals HandicapClass 3 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 100/1
25 Nov 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Skycutter (FR)J: Stevie Donohoe Ministry Of Sound Concert 31st August HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 40/1
24 Nov 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Basholo (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Midnite A Next Generation Betting App HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 28/1
24 Nov 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Cloch Nua (GB)J: Stevie Donohoe Win 250,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals Handicap (Div 2)Class 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 50/1
22 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Bossy Parker (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Use Safer Gambling Tools At BetMGM HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 40/1
22 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Present Times (GB)J: Zak Wheatley Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Apprentice HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 33/1
20 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Ada's Day (FR)J: Barry McHugh Midnite: Built For 2025 Not 2005 Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 10f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 250/1
08 Nov 25 Doncaster Platoon (IRE)J: Robert Havlin Virgin Bet November Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 12f · Heavy · 22 ran 18th 150/1
07 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Basholo (IRE)J: Zak Wheatley Make The Move To Midnite HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 33/1
07 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Skycutter (FR)J: Rowan Scott Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12.5f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 100/1
05 Nov 25 Musselburgh Sir Benedict (IRE)J: Joe Fanning Happy 70th Birthday John Grossick HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Soft · 12 ran 5th 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Stella Barclay's strike rate?
Stella Barclay has won 73 of 955 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Stella Barclay do best at?
Catterick by strike rate: 4 wins from 31 runners (12.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Stella Barclay?
Shane Gray, with 80 runners since 2022 — 8% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (3.8%).
What is Stella Barclay's Fair A/E?
0.97, from 946 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).