Patrick O'Donnell
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 60 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.21). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 14% (42 rides).
Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 3.9% (n=76, Fair A/E 0.71). First rides on a horse are the standout value angle: 12.7% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.23 and +105.71 to a £1 stake over 213 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Ralph Beckett supplied 34% of the rides and edges the rider's average (16% vs 12.6%, A/E 1.18) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well at trips under 6f (22.2%, n=36) and in Class 5 (18.4%, n=103). The market has also underrated the rider on Good to Firm going: Fair A/E 1.81 across 53 rides (17% strike, +22.50 to a £1 stake). The record read poorly on Soft going — 4.8% over 42 rides, 7.8pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fired Jun–Jul.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12.6% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2012→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 348 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 348 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 February 2012 to 19 September 2017.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Patrick O'Donnell's strike rate?
- Patrick O'Donnell has won 44 of 348 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 12.6% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Patrick O'Donnell do best at?
- Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 5 wins from 35 rides (14.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Patrick O'Donnell ride most for?
- Ralph Beckett, with 119 rides since 2008 — 34% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (16%).
- What is Patrick O'Donnell's Fair A/E?
- 1.21, from 348 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.