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Trainer profile

Timothy Jarvis

207 runners in the lifetime window · 28 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Oct 2015 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2014→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
18–207
Wins / Runs
8.7%
Strike rate
n=207
45 (22%)
Placed
1.10
Fair A/E
n=207 · 0.93 incl. margin
−19.88
£1 level stake
n=207 at SP · −9.6%
£149k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
11.6%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 100 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.10). With a claiming rider up the record reads 12% (81 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 207 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 12.3%
The read

It is weakest at Kempton (AW) (2.2% over 46 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 12.3% (n=81, Fair A/E 1.50), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3.2% (n=31, Fair A/E 0.59). The yard also read well on Good to Firm going (12.8%, n=47) and off a 8-14-day break (13.3%, n=30). The record read poorly on Standard (AW) going — 3.4% over 59 runners, 5.3pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Dubai Duty Free Cup at Newbury (Sep 2014, £20,983).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.2%−5.5
n=31 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −25.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
10%+1.3
n=20 · A/E 1.78 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.7
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.7
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−8.7
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
14.3%
n=7 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −5.38
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
12.3%+3.6
n=81 · A/E 1.50 · £1 +8.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
25%+16.3
n=4 · A/E 3.31 · £1 +3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Kempton (AW) 2.2% vs 8.7% · n=46
On Standard (AW) going 3.4% vs 8.7% · n=59
With claiming riders up 12.3% vs 8.7% · n=81
On Good to Firm going 12.8% vs 8.7% · n=47
Off a 8-14-day break 13.3% vs 8.7% · n=30
On Good to Soft going 12.9% vs 8.7% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 59 2 3.4% −45.50
Good 52 4 7.7% +23.50
Good to Firm 47 6 12.8% +6.12
Good to Soft 31 4 12.9% +3.50
Soft 16 1 6.3% −12.00
Heavy 2 1 50% +4.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Kempton (AW) 46 1 2.2% −41.50
Haydock 26 5 19.2% +56.00
Newbury 18 4 22.2% +8.50
Nottingham 13 1 7.7% −11.38
Windsor 13 1 7.7% +2.00
York 12 0 0% −12.00
Ascot 9 0 0% −9.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 8 1 12.5% +1.00
Salisbury 8 1 12.5% +7.00
Epsom Downs 7 2 28.6% +6.50
Brighton 6 0 0% −6.00
Lingfield 5 0 0% −5.00
Lingfield (AW) 4 0 0% −4.00
Ayr 4 0 0% −4.00
Leicester 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 81 8 9.9% +20.12
Class 4 50 5 10% −13.00
Class 6 43 3 7% −10.00
Class 2 16 1 6.3% −7.00
Class 3 12 0 0% −12.00
Class 1 4 1 25% +3.00
Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 12 2 16.7% 0.64 −6.38
2nd–3rd fav 27 5 18.5% 1.23 +0.00
4th–6th fav 73 10 13.7% 1.76 +30.50
7th+ in betting 95 1 1.1% 0.28 −44.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Prince Regal (GB)from K R Burke 14 0 3 19 Oct 15
Above The Rest (IRE)from K R Burke · then David Barron 14 3 7 9 Oct 15
Albonny (IRE)from K R Burke 13 1 2 23 Oct 15
Italian Beauty (IRE)then Brian Ellison 12 4 4 23 Oct 15
Always Resolute (GB)from Alan Jarvis · then Brian Ellison 12 2 4 16 Oct 15
Navajo Chief (GB)from Alan Jarvis 12 0 1 10 Oct 15
Rogue Wave (IRE)from Alan Jarvis 12 0 3 12 Sep 15
Lady Gibraltar (GB)from Alan Jarvis 11 2 3 28 Jul 15
Another Try (IRE)from K R Burke 9 0 1 23 Jun 15
Azzir (IRE)then K R Burke 8 1 4 28 Oct 15
I Am Not Here (IRE)from Alan Jarvis · then Brian Ellison 8 2 3 25 Jun 15
Substantivo (IRE)from Alan Jarvis 8 0 2 15 Jun 15
All 28 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 28 horses listed, 20 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alan Jarvis (14) and K R Burke (6); 8 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for K R Burke (4) and Brian Ellison (3); 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
···001710720300
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderJordan Vaughan
16% of all rides
9.1% SR · A/E 1.01
RiderRWSR£1
Jordan Vaughan 33 3 9.1% −15.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2014→
18
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£149k
Prize money
2015
Best season · 11 wins
Lady Lara (IRE) — Dubai Duty Free Cup (Listed) (Str) Newbury · Sep 2014 · Listed
£20,983
Above The Rest (IRE) — Bingo At Bet365 Handicap Haydock · Jul 2015 · Class 2
£12,938
Lady Gibraltar (GB) — Veterans' Handicap Goodwood · Jun 2015 · Class 4
£6,469
Notable horses
Italian Beauty (IRE) Above The Rest (IRE) Always Resolute (GB) Lady Gibraltar (GB) I Am Not Here (IRE) Albonny (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Excellent Art (GB) 22.2% · 4–18
Progeny have won 9.9% of 4,555 runs since 2008 (298 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 451.
Thewayyouare (USA) 22.2% · 4–18
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,151 runs since 2008 (166 horses).
Refuse To Bend (IRE) 17.6% · 3–17
Progeny have won 9.8% of 4,868 runs since 2008 (320 horses).
Iffraaj (GB) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 10.6% of 13,952 runs since 2008 (1,089 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.6% from 489.
Cockney Rebel (IRE) 0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,864 runs since 2008 (179 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.1% from 206.
Aussie Rules (USA) 7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 9.8% of 4,515 runs since 2008 (297 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.6% from 177.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 207 · newest first

The latest 50 of 207 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 June 2014 to 28 October 2015.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
28 Oct 15 Nottingham Azzir (IRE)J: Graham Gibbons 32Red HandicapClass 4 · 14f · Heavy · 9 ran 3rd 6/1
23 Oct 15 Newbury Albonny (IRE)J: Patrick O'Donnell newburyracecourse.co.uk 'Hands And Heels' Apprentice Series Final HandicapClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 10th 16/1
23 Oct 15 Newbury Italian Beauty (IRE)J: Patrick O'Donnell ALMR Fillies' HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 11/1
23 Oct 15 Newbury Never Give In (GB)J: Patrick O'Donnell New Hot To Trot Syndicate EBF Stallions Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) (Div 2)Class 4 · 6.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 4th 33/1
19 Oct 15 Windsor Prince Regal (GB)J: Patrick O'Donnell Unibet90+ Cashback Offer Classified Claiming StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 13th 8/1
16 Oct 15 Haydock Always Resolute (GB)J: Tom Marquand ApolloBet Worldwide Lotteries HandicapClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 6th 10/1
16 Oct 15 Haydock Navajo War Dance (GB)J: Jim Crowley ApolloBet Best Odds Guaranteed EBF Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 6/5F
10 Oct 15 York Navajo Chief (GB)J: Jim Crowley Coldstream Guards Association Cup (Handicap)Class 4 · 10.5f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 19th 11/1
09 Oct 15 York Above The Rest (IRE)J: Jordan Vaughan Stan James Bet On Your Mobile HandicapClass 2 · 8.5f · Soft · 13 ran 13th 10/1
30 Sep 15 Nottingham Italian Beauty (IRE)J: Patrick O'Donnell ROA/Racing Post Owners Jackpot HandicapClass 4 · 8.5f · Good · 11 ran 8th 8/1
18 Sep 15 Newbury Navajo Chief (GB)J: William Buick Al Basti Equiworld Handicap (Div 1)Class 4 · 10f · Soft · 9 ran 3rd 8/1
18 Sep 15 Newbury Navajo War Dance (GB)J: William Buick Haynes, Hanson & Clark Conditions Stakes (Plus 10) (Str)Class 2 · 8f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 9/1
16 Sep 15 Sandown Sabha (IRE)J: Martin Dwyer Wildwood Golf And Country Club Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Soft · 11 ran 10th 25/1
12 Sep 15 Lingfield Rogue Wave (IRE)J: Ryan Powell FSB Card Payment Processing HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 6/1
10 Sep 15 Epsom Downs Prince Regal (GB)J: Jordan Vaughan Hyperion HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good · 11 ran 5th 10/1
10 Sep 15 Epsom Downs Azzir (IRE)J: Jordan Vaughan JRA HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good · 8 ran 1st 9/2
10 Sep 15 Epsom Downs Italian Beauty (IRE)J: Patrick O'Donnell Pinsent Masons HandicapClass 5 · 8.5f · Good · 9 ran 1st 7/1
05 Sep 15 Ascot Navajo War Dance (GB)J: Joey Haynes McGee Group EBF Stallions Maiden Stakes (Div 2) (Plus 10)Class 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 4/1
05 Sep 15 Ascot Above The Rest (IRE)J: Joey Haynes Fly London Southend Airport Handicap (Qualifier For The Balmoral Handicap)Class 2 · 7f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 8th 10/1
04 Sep 15 Haydock Always Resolute (GB)J: Joey Haynes Betfred 'Please Support Jack Berry House' HandicapClass 4 · 14f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 10/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Timothy Jarvis's strike rate?
Timothy Jarvis has won 18 of 207 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.7% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Timothy Jarvis do best at?
Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 46 runners (2.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Timothy Jarvis's Fair A/E?
1.10, from 207 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).