What is Paul Lucas's strike rate?

Paul Lucas has won 5 of 88 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.7% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Lucas do best at?

Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 2 wins from 35 rides (5.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is Paul Lucas's Fair A/E?

0.61, from 74 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Paul Lucas

88 rides in the lifetime window · 70 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Feb 2019 98% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2010→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

5–88

Wins / Runs

5.7%

Strike rate

n=88

15 (17%)

Placed

0.61

Fair A/E

n=74 · 0.62 incl. margin

−41.00

£1 level stake

n=83 at SP · −49.4%

£143k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB at a glance Claiming: 6.7%

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.7% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

4.3%−1.4

n=70 · A/E 0.30 · £1 −38.70

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

0%−5.7

n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

2.6%−3.1

n=38 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −33.70

When favourite

20%

n=5 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −0.70

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

6.7%+1.0

n=45 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −25.00

Big fields · 14+ runners

8%+2.3

n=25 · A/E 1.62 · £1 −10.70

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−5.7

n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Chase races 0% vs 5.7% · n=36

Over 2m1f – 2m4f 3.2% vs 5.7% · n=62

In Hurdle races 8% vs 5.7% · n=50

On first rides for the horse 4.3% vs 5.7% · n=70 · A/E 0.30

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 50 4 8% −7.00

Chase 36 0 0% −33.00

Flat 2 1 50% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 44 3 6.8% −15.30

Heavy 37 2 5.4% −21.70

Good to Soft 3 0 0% −2.00

Good 3 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Auteuil (FR) 35 2 5.7% −19.30

Enghien (FR) 27 1 3.7% −22.70

Compiegne 8 0 0% −8.00

Pau 5 0 0% −5.00

Nancy 2 0 0% −2.00

Angers 2 1 50% −1.00

Hyeres 1 0 0% —

Marseille Borely 1 0 0% −1.00

Strasbourg 1 0 0% −1.00

Maure-De-Bretagne 1 0 0% —

Meral 1 0 0% —

Fontainebleau 1 0 0% −1.00

Vichy 1 1 100% +21.00

Toulouse (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

La Roche-Posay 1 0 0% —

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 6 1 16.7% 0.66 −1.70

2nd–3rd fav 14 1 7.1% 0.74 −8.30

4th–6th fav 20 2 10% 0.92 +12.00

7th+ in betting 43 0 0% 0.00 −43.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

57% completed · 86 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 36 52.8% 6 0 10 0 1

Hurdle 50 60% 4 0 14 0 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Shimba Hills (FR) 4 1 2 9 May 14

Ble En Herbe (FR) 3 0 2 29 Nov 15

Spirit Or Soul (FR) 2 0 0 5 Mar 18

Galant Du Tertre (FR) 2 0 0 5 Mar 18

Kabanos (FR) 2 0 0 29 Oct 15

Olijeff (FR) 2 0 1 5 Nov 14

Liberalis (FR) 2 0 2 22 May 14

Rose D'Amour (FR) 2 0 0 1 Apr 14

Roli Talisker (FR) 2 1 1 21 Apr 13

Brainstormer (FR) 2 0 0 10 Apr 13

Sun Derby Day (FR) 2 0 1 27 Mar 13

Kinsail (FR) 2 1 2 20 Oct 12

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 70 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

0068110·0011020

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

TrainerRWSR£1

J Bertran De Balanda 17 0 0% −17.00

J Bigot 5 0 0% −5.00

Yannick Fouin 5 1 20% +0.70

Emmanuel Clayeux 4 1 25% +18.00

Y Fertillet 4 0 0% −3.00

Augustin Adeline De Boisbrunet 4 0 0% −3.00

E Vagne 3 0 0% −3.00

P Adda 3 0 0% −3.00

X-L Le Stang 2 0 0% −2.00

A Pereira Da Silva 2 0 0% −2.00

W Menuet 2 1 50% +2.30

E De Chitray 2 0 0% −1.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2010→

Archived wins

£143k

Prize money

2015

Best season · 1 win

Shimba Hills (FR) — Prix la Belle Ferronniere (Hurdle) (Claimer) (4yo Fillies) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Apr 2014

£9,200

Kinsail (FR) — Prix De L'Aisne (Hurdle) (Claimer) (3yo) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Oct 2012

£9,200

Roli Talisker (FR) — Prix de la Vanoise (Hurdle) (Claimer) (3yo Colts & Geldings) (Turf) Enghien (FR) · Mar 2013

£8,976

Notable horses

Shimba Hills (FR) Roli Talisker (FR) Kinsail (FR) Apple's Jade (FR) Ruphery Borget (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Poliglote (GB) 14.3% · 1–7

Progeny have won 15.6% of 4,224 runs since 2008 (417 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.8% from 234. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19% from 691. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.1% from 196.

Martaline (GB) 0% · 0–6

Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,347 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.

Fragrant Mix (IRE) 0% · 0–4

Progeny have won 11.3% of 1,084 runs since 2008 (149 horses).

Lost World (IRE) 0% · 0–3

Progeny have won 9.8% of 880 runs since 2008 (88 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.6% from 140.

Saint Des Saints (FR) 33.3% · 1–3

Progeny have won 15% of 5,359 runs since 2008 (643 horses).

Bering (GB) 0% · 0–2

Progeny have won 8.8% of 701 runs since 2008 (69 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.9% from 108. Weakest on Heavy going: 4.6% from 109. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 156.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 88 · newest first

The latest 50 of 88 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 December 2010 to 12 February 2019.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

12 Feb 19 Toulouse (FR) Brezil En Fete (FR)T: C Cheminaud Prix de la Trinite (Chase) (Conditions) (5yo+) (Turf)17.5f · Very Soft · 12 ran PU 49/1

11 Feb 19 Angers (FR) Get Up (FR)T: X-L Le Stang Prix du Parc de la Garenne (Chase) (Claimer) (5yo+) (Turf)19f · Heavy · 16 ran PU 108/1

05 Mar 18 Compiegne (FR) Galant Du Tertre (FR)T: J Bigot Prix Gaston de la Motte (Chase) (Conditions) (5yo+) (Turf)19f · Heavy · 9 ran 6th 55/1

05 Mar 18 Compiegne (FR) Spirit Or Soul (FR)T: J Bigot Prix Bougie (Hurdle) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)18f · Heavy · 14 ran PU 62/1

25 Dec 17 Pau (FR) Le Lescarien (FR)T: J Ortet Prix Joseph d'Ariste (Cross-Country Chase) (Conditions) (6yo+) (Turf)20.5f · Very Soft · 11 ran PU 43/1

10 Nov 17 Compiegne (FR) Via Tennise (FR)T: H Despont Grand Steeple Chase-Cross-Country de Compiegne (Conditions) (5yo+) (Turf)27f · Very Soft · 12 ran RO 24/1

10 Nov 17 Compiegne (FR) Gentiane De L'Aube (FR)T: J-P Bernhardt Prix Daniel Merle (Chase) (Conditions) (3yo) (Turf)16.5f · Very Soft · 8 ran F 50/1

02 Nov 17 Compiegne (FR) Djulia Du Rivage (FR)T: J Bigot Prix La Fregate (Hurdle) (Conditions) (4yo Fillies) (Turf)18f · Very Soft · 11 ran PU 66/1

24 Oct 17 Auteuil (FR) Spirit Or Soul (FR)T: J Bigot Prix Hunorisk (Hurdle) (Conditions) (5yo+) (Turf)18f · Very Soft · 15 ran 6th 64/1

05 Oct 17 Compiegne (FR) Galant Du Tertre (FR)T: J Bigot Prix de Pau (Cross-Country Chase) (Conditions) (5yo+) (Turf)23.5f · Heavy · 5 ran F 12/1

04 Apr 17 Compiegne (FR) Irish Dance (FR)T: A Chaille-Chaille Prix Saccageur (Chase) (Handicap) (4yo) (Turf)17f · Good To Soft · 6 ran F 11/2

12 Mar 17 Auteuil (FR) Mister Flight (FR)T: A Chaille-Chaille Prix Jean Claude Evain (Chase) (Conditions) (5yo+) (Turf)18.5f · Heavy · 11 ran PU 75/1

06 Sep 16 Auteuil (FR) Theme Astral (FR)T: X-L Le Stang Prix Achille-Fould (Hurdle) () (4yo+) (Turf)18f · Very Soft · 15 ran PU 44/1

28 Feb 16 Hyeres Super Blue Cat (USA)T: J Heloury Prix Paul Klein (Hurdle)19f · Heavy · 3 ran 3rd —

05 Dec 15 Pau Sulon (FR)T: Patrice Quinton Prix Du Pau Hunt races (Cross-Country Chase)23f · Good To Soft · 7 ran F 78/10

03 Dec 15 Pau Unbrin De L'Isle (FR)T: Emmanuel Clayeux Prix Hubert De Navailles (Cross-Country Chase)23f · Soft · 6 ran 6th 47/1

29 Nov 15 Auteuil (FR) Ble En Herbe (FR)T: E Vagne Prix Nupsala (Chase) (Conditions) (4yo Non-Thoroughbreds) (Turf)21.5f · Heavy · 10 ran 5th 6/1

25 Nov 15 Auteuil (FR) Katkody (FR)T: J-P Gallorini Prix Elseneur (Chase) (Conditions) (3yo) (Turf)17.5f · Heavy · 8 ran 6th 34/1

23 Nov 15 Enghien (FR) Krocoleon (FR)T: Emmanuel Clayeux Prix de l'Orne (Chase) (Claimer) (5yo+) (Turf)18.5f · Heavy · 12 ran PU 28/1

23 Nov 15 Enghien (FR) Art And Co (FR)T: Emmanuel Clayeux Prix Thuya (Chase) (Conditions) (5yo Non-Thoroughbreds) (Turf)22.5f · Heavy · 5 ran 4th 111/10

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Lucas's strike rate?: Paul Lucas has won 5 of 88 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.7% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Lucas do best at?: Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 2 wins from 35 rides (5.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Paul Lucas's Fair A/E?: 0.61, from 74 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.