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Jockey profile

Raphael Marchelli

1,000 rides in the lifetime window · 500 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Nov 2017 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
85–1,000
Wins / Runs
8.5%
Strike rate
n=1,000
207 (21%)
Placed
0.86
Fair A/E
n=851 · 0.86 incl. margin
−270.77
£1 level stake
n=874 at SP · −31.0%
£2.04m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
10%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 100 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.86). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (86 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,000 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance 28.1% when favourite A Bonin: 9.6% from 125 First rides: 8.7% LTO winners: 18.6% Rode the favourite in 6% of races
The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 18.6% (n=86, Fair A/E 1.75), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.3% (n=607, Fair A/E 0.92). A Bonin supplied 13% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (9.6%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record read poorly on Good going — 5.5% over 236 rides, 3pts below the baseline. 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the QNB Prix Dollar at Longchamp (FR) (Oct 2014, £36,667).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.5% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
8.7%+0.2
n=496 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −85.07
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
18.6%+10.1
n=86 · A/E 1.75 · £1 −1.77
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
8.3%−0.2
n=277 · A/E 0.89 · £1 +13.10
When favourite
28.1%
n=57 · A/E 0.95 · £1 +5.20
Big fields · 14+ runners
5.3%−3.2
n=607 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −177.70
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
5.8%−2.7
n=69 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −13.97

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 18.6% vs 8.5% · n=86
With S Wattel 16.2% vs 8.5% · n=117
With first-time headgear 3.6% vs 8.5% · n=55
With T Castanheira 4.5% vs 8.5% · n=110
With debutants 12.2% vs 8.5% · n=123
On Good going 5.5% vs 8.5% · n=236
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 362 30 8.3% −115.70
Good 236 13 5.5% −100.57
Soft 222 23 10.4% −27.50
Good to Soft 108 13 12% −21.40
Heavy 65 6 9.2% −0.60
Good to Firm 4 0 0% −4.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Deauville 293 21 7.2% −148.50
Chantilly (FR) 175 16 9.1% −45.80
Saint-Cloud (FR) 171 14 8.2% +5.30
Longchamp (FR) 146 8 5.5% −111.07
Maisons-Laffitte (FR) 141 8 5.7% −9.70
Fontainebleau 8 0 0% −4.00
Cagnes-Sur-Mer 7 2 28.6% +25.60
Vichy 6 0 0% −3.00
Compiegne 6 0 0% −2.00
Toulouse 6 3 50% +9.50
La Teste De Buch 5 1 20% −2.00
Clairefontaine 5 0 0% −3.00
Chateaubriant 3 2 66.7% +11.10
Le Croise-Laroche 3 0 0% −2.00
Mont-De-Marsan 2 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 69 4 5.8% −13.97

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 58 17 29.3% 0.95 +8.20
2nd–3rd fav 109 18 16.5% 1.10 +28.53
4th–6th fav 164 9 5.5% 0.75 −43.40
7th+ in betting 543 12 2.2% 0.70 −264.10
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Kfar Yona (FR) 16 2 3 12 Mar 11
Maher Senora (FR) 14 2 5 17 Oct 17
Taverny (GB) 13 1 7 31 Jul 12
Chene Boppe (FR) 12 0 4 10 Mar 15
Bombineta (FR) 10 1 2 8 Jul 16
Ice Love (FR) 10 2 2 29 Jun 15
Source Antique (FR) 10 0 2 4 Apr 11
Full Dance (FR) 9 2 3 10 Oct 17
Apsis Dream (FR) 9 0 2 26 Jun 15
Saon Secret (FR) 9 0 2 23 Apr 15
Aventador (FR) 9 1 5 1 Jun 14
Un Air De Salsa (FR) 9 3 5 21 May 11
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 500 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
771367119761277
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardA Bonin
13% of all rides
9.6% SR · A/E 1.01
TrainerRWSR£1
A Bonin 125 12 9.6% −48.90
S Wattel 117 19 16.2% −2.40
T Castanheira 110 5 4.5% −28.20
B Dutruel 36 4 11.1% +32.70
Rod Collet 31 3 9.7% −13.80
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
109
Archived wins
5
Pattern / graded wins
£2.51m
Prize money
2010
Best season · 17 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Fractional (IRE) — QNB Prix Dollar (3yo+) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2014 · Group 2
£36,667
Alpine Snow (IRE) — Prix Urban Sea () (Fillies) Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) · Jun 2009 · Listed
£26,699
Southwold (FR) — Prix du Nabob (Handicap) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2009
£26,466
Notable horses
Un Air De Salsa (FR) Kfar Yona (FR) Maher Senora (FR) Ice Love (FR) Full Dance (FR) Timelord (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Marchand De Sable (USA) 16.7% · 7–42
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,093 runs since 2008 (128 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.2% from 167. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.8% from 148.
My Risk (FR) 9.4% · 3–32
Progeny have won 10.2% of 973 runs since 2008 (148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.5% from 110. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.9% from 287. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 17.8% from 129. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5% from 140.
Muhtathir (GB) 12.9% · 4–31
Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,710 runs since 2008 (494 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.9% from 967.
Green Tune (USA) 19% · 4–21
Progeny have won 10% of 1,943 runs since 2008 (227 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.6% from 265. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 457. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 13.1% from 244.
Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) 16.7% · 3–18
Progeny have won 9.8% of 11,563 runs since 2008 (871 horses).
Diktat (GB) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 8.2% of 4,931 runs since 2008 (337 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.4% from 431. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 156.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,121 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,121 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 25 March 2005 to 2 November 2017.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
02 Nov 17 Lingfield (AW) Val De Marne (GB)T: A Fabre 32Red EBF Stallions River Eden Fillies' Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 13f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 7/1
26 Oct 17 Maisons-Laffitte (FR) Champenoise (FR)T: M Seror Prix des Aunettes (Handicap) (3yo+) (Turf)6f · Very Soft · 16 ran 10th 13/1
26 Oct 17 Maisons-Laffitte (FR) Deesse Du Seuil (FR)T: M Seror Prix Chloris (AQPS (4-5yo Fillies & Mares) (Turf)12.5f · Very Soft · 7 ran 1st 103/10
23 Oct 17 Chantilly (FR) Passior (FR)T: D De Waele Prix de Neuilly-en-Thelle (Handicap) (4yo+) (Polytrack)7f · Standard · 17 ran 15th 195/10
23 Oct 17 Chantilly (FR) As De Coeur (IRE)T: Mme Y Vollmer Prix de Crouy-en-Thelle (Handicap) (4yo+) (Polytrack)7f · Standard · 17 ran 2nd 162/10
21 Oct 17 Chantilly (FR) Sunday Sister (IRE)T: A Fabre Prix de Magdeleine (Maiden) (3yo) (Polytrack)8.5f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 16/1
17 Oct 17 Deauville (FR) Maher Senora (FR)T: Y Barberot Prix Galop Expo (Handicap) (4yo+) (Polytrack)9.5f · Standard · 16 ran 2nd 136/10
13 Oct 17 Maisons-Laffitte (FR) Champenoise (FR)T: M Seror Prix d'Uzes (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf)6f · Soft · 13 ran 1st 118/10
10 Oct 17 Saint-Cloud (FR) Full Dance (FR)T: A Bonin Prix de Chemoitou (Handicap) (3yo) (Turf)12f · Soft · 15 ran 1st 89/10
04 Oct 17 Saint-Cloud (FR) Deniaville (FR)T: E Vagne Prix Glorieuse (AQPS (4-5yo Fillies & Mares) (Turf)12.5f · Very Soft · 8 ran 5th 76/10
02 Oct 17 Maisons-Laffitte (FR) Champenoise (FR)T: M Seror Prix du Rond Tesse (Handicap) (4yo) (Round) (Turf)8f · Soft · 11 ran 4th 76/10
24 Sep 17 Nancy (FR) Kalibur (GER)T: Mlle Y Vollmer Prix de Luneville (Claimer) (4yo+) (Turf)12f · Soft · 8 ran 5th 76/10
11 Sep 17 Maisons-Laffitte (FR) Full Dance (FR)T: A Bonin Prix du Charolais (Handicap) (3yo) (Round) (Turf)10f · Very Soft · 17 ran 5th 32/5
05 Sep 17 Maisons-Laffitte (FR) Champenoise (FR)T: M Seror Prix de la Route Neuve (Handicap) (4yo) (Round) (Turf)8f · Soft · 12 ran 1st 101/10
27 Aug 17 Deauville (FR) Zohar (FR)T: Remy Nerbonne Prix Hotel Barrire l'Hotel du Golf Deauville (Handicap) (3yo) (Polytrack)9.5f · Standard · 15 ran 9th 29/1
27 Aug 17 Deauville (FR) Immortal Joe (FR)T: Mme Y Vollmer Prix Hotel Barriere Le Normandy Deauville (Handicap) (3yo) (Polytrack)9.5f · Standard · 16 ran 11th 197/10
18 Aug 17 Clairefontaine (FR) Chalco (FR)T: A Bonin Prix d'Auberville - Etalon Le Havre (Maiden) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (Turf)7f · Good · 8 ran 7th 42/1
30 Jul 17 Deauville (FR) Full Dance (FR)T: A Bonin Prix du Verger (Handicap) (3yo) (Polytrack)9.5f · Standard · 16 ran 1st 53/10
16 Jul 17 Maisons-Laffitte (FR) Immortal Joe (FR)T: Mme Y Vollmer Prix de la Ville du Pecq (Handicap) (3yo) (Round) (Turf)10f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 99/10
07 Jul 17 Deauville (FR) Apollon (FR)T: A Bonin Prix de la Merite (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)12.5f · Good · 13 ran 4th 69/10

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Raphael Marchelli's strike rate?
Raphael Marchelli has won 85 of 1,000 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.5% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Raphael Marchelli do best at?
Chantilly (FR) by strike rate: 16 wins from 175 rides (9.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Raphael Marchelli ride most for?
A Bonin, with 125 rides since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (9.6%).
What is Raphael Marchelli's Fair A/E?
0.86, from 851 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).