What is Adrian Murray's strike rate?

Adrian Murray has won 89 of 979 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Adrian Murray do best at?

Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 31 wins from 234 runners (13.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Adrian Murray?

David Egan, with 147 runners since 2022 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (14.3%).

What is Adrian Murray's Fair A/E?

1.13, from 978 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Adrian Murray

979 runners in the last 5 seasons · 170 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 15 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

89–979

Wins / Runs

9.1%

Strike rate

n=979

255 (26%)

Placed

1.13

Fair A/E

n=978 · 0.93 incl. margin

+23.94

£1 level stake

n=979 at SP · +2.4%

£3.23m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 200 runners a season, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.13). New recruits from other yards win at 15% first time out (48 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 979 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Apr Fresh horses: 12.3% 46.3% when favourite David Egan: 14.3% from 147 New recruits: 14.6% Sends off the favourite in 6% of races

The read

New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 14.6% (n=48, Fair A/E 2.17), but a horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 1.9% (n=53, Fair A/E 0.51). Debutants are the standout value angle: 11.6% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.49 and +43.53 to a £1 stake over 112 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.70 and −223.25 to a £1 stake over 350 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. David Egan rides 15% of the entries and beats the yard's average (14.3% vs 9.1%, A/E 1.28) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a 0-7-day break — 2.1% over 48 runners, 7pts below the baseline. 14 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Bar One Racing Flying Five Stakes at Curragh (Sep 2025, £236,000). The stable star of the record: Arizona Blaze (GB) — 6 wins from 16 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

12.3%+3.2

n=187 · A/E 1.54 · £1 −7.24

New recruits · first run for the yard

14.6%+5.5

n=48 · A/E 2.17 · £1 +64.25

Debutants · first career start

11.6%+2.5

n=112 · A/E 1.49 · £1 +43.53

First-time headgear · true-first definition

1.9%−7.2

n=53 · A/E 0.51 · £1 +73.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

6.3%−2.8

n=32 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −20.00

When favourite

46.3%

n=54 · A/E 1.43 · £1 +7.44

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

4.3%−4.8

n=350 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −223.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.2%−1.9

n=194 · A/E 1.09 · £1 +66.45

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Colin Keane 18.2% vs 9.1% · n=33

With first-time headgear 1.9% vs 9.1% · n=53

With claiming riders up 4.3% vs 9.1% · n=350

With Jack Cleary 2% vs 9.1% · n=51

Off a 0-7-day break 2.1% vs 9.1% · n=48

With C&D winners 15.5% vs 9.1% · n=58

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 746 73 9.8% +134.82

Hurdle 188 14 7.4% −77.63

NH Flat 24 0 0% −24.00

Chase 21 2 9.5% −9.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 316 36 11.4% +157.80

Standard (AW) 242 32 13.2% −97.03

Soft 195 9 4.6% −100.00

Good to Soft 113 6 5.3% −43.58

Heavy 76 3 3.9% −18.75

Good to Firm 37 3 8.1% +125.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 234 31 13.2% −92.78

Curragh 139 15 10.8% −37.97

Naas 69 4 5.8% −23.88

Kilbeggan 53 3 5.7% −27.50

Cork 49 6 12.2% +9.25

Leopardstown 49 2 4.1% +8.50

Gowran Park 44 2 4.5% −39.35

Navan 38 1 2.6% −34.50

Down Royal 25 2 8% −19.00

Roscommon 24 3 12.5% +62.62

Sligo 23 2 8.7% −11.00

Ascot 23 1 4.3% +128.00

Punchestown 21 2 9.5% +2.00

Galway 20 2 10% +31.00

Fairyhouse 19 3 15.8% +130.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 194 14 7.2% +66.45

Class 2 10 1 10% −6.25

Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 70 31 44.3% 1.49 +15.56

2nd–3rd fav 157 30 19.1% 1.24 −0.12

4th–6th fav 324 18 5.6% 0.80 −95.50

7th+ in betting 428 10 2.3% 0.91 +104.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Vale Of Glory (IRE)from Mark Fahey 21 2 5 4 Aug 25

Sargent Lightfoot (IRE) 21 4 12 13 Jul 25

Special Angel (IRE) 19 1 4 29 Nov 24

Beauty Bella (IRE)then Jack W Davison 19 1 6 3 Sep 24

Scenic Look (IRE)from Mark L Fagan 19 2 6 3 May 23

Valiant Force (USA)then Robson De Aguiar 18 5 9 14 Oct 25

Sand Castle (IRE) 18 1 3 13 Jul 24

Arizona Blaze (GB) 16 6 10 14 Sep 25

Victor's Choice (IRE) 16 2 4 26 Apr 25

Beautiful Sunshine (GB)from George Boughey 16 1 3 2 Jul 23

Silent Dawn (IRE) 15 0 3 8 May 26

Gran Habano (IRE)then Amy Murphy 15 0 5 4 Oct 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 170 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 15 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Dominic Ffrench Davis (3) and George Boughey (2); 45 had their first archived run for this yard.

28 have since run for another yard, most often for Robson De Aguiar (11) and Denis Gerard Hogan (3); 32 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

918151056131010665

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDavid Egan

15% of all rides
14.3% SR · A/E 1.28

RiderRWSR£1

David Egan 147 21 14.3% −13.66

Eoin G Kelly 72 4 5.6% −34.50

Robert Whearty 67 3 4.5% −16.00

Seamie Heffernan 54 6 11.1% +180.25

Jack Cleary 51 1 2% −41.00

Sean Flanagan 48 2 4.2% −36.88

Gary Halpin 41 1 2.4% −36.50

W J Lee 34 5 14.7% −16.45

Colin Keane 33 6 18.2% −4.88

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

125

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.71m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 42 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Arizona Blaze (GB) — Bar One Racing Flying Five Stakes (Group 1) Curragh · Sep 2025 · Group 1

£236,000

Power Blue (IRE) — Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) Curragh · Aug 2025 · Group 1

£206,500

Bucanero Fuerte (GB) — Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) Curragh · Aug 2023 · Group 1

£177,000

Notable horses

Arizona Blaze (GB) Bucanero Fuerte (GB) Valiant Force (USA) Sargent Lightfoot (IRE) Gold Speed (IRE) Cass Bligh (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Ardad (IRE) 4.3% · 3–69

Progeny have won 8.7% of 3,502 runs since 2008 (350 horses).

Mehmas (IRE) 5.6% · 3–54

Progeny have won 11.6% of 8,107 runs since 2008 (747 horses).

Inns Of Court (IRE) 0% · 0–31

Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,217 runs since 2008 (230 horses).

Galileo Gold (GB) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 10.7% of 2,016 runs since 2008 (173 horses).

Jeremy (USA) 19% · 4–21

Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,724 runs since 2008 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.

The Last Lion (IRE) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 7.5% of 912 runs since 2008 (63 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4% from 100.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,622 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,622 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 25 March 2007 to 5 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Chanceitlucky (IRE)J: Kevin Healy Fairyhouse Racecourse Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 14 ran 1st 15/2

05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Geashill Poet (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 11th 300/1

28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Telegram Sam (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Athleague Maiden Hurdle15.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 1st 8/13F

25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Euro Maker (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 12th 5/1

24 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Calamint (IRE)J: Kevin Healy Buckley Agri New Holland Irish EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 17 ran 9th 150/1

07 Sep 26 Galway (IRE) Euro Maker (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Anglo Printers Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 20 ran 3rd 6/1

05 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Calamint (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Return Of The Jumps At Navan Racecourse September 19th Handicap (Div I)10f · Good · 21 ran 11th 10/1

03 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Telegram Sam (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Maiden Hurdle (Div II)16f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 3rd 4/1

03 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Geashill Poet (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Maiden Hurdle (Div I)16f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 10th 100/1

24 Aug 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Chanceitlucky (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Jerry McDonnell Memorial Handicap Hurdle22.5f · Good · 16 ran 12th 9/2

10 Aug 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Chanceitlucky (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Tim Kelly Group Handicap Hurdle22.5f · Good · 16 ran 5th 20/1

10 Aug 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Euro Maker (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Broderick's Electric Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 15 ran 1st 9/1

08 Aug 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Calamint (IRE)J: Joshua Halford Well Of Moate Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 5th 25/1

02 Aug 26 Galway (IRE) Barrys Spirit (IRE)J: Kevin Healy Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 17 ran 10th 40/1

27 May 26 Wexford Euro Maker (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Treo Eile Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)17f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 9th 11/2

25 May 26 Ballinrobe Telegram Sam (IRE)J: Mr J P O'Rourke McHale Orbital Flat Race16.5f · Good · 11 ran 4th 22/1

15 May 26 Kilbeggan Jurassic Bob (IRE)J: Kevin Healy Racing Again May 31st (Pro/Am) Flat Race18.5f · Good · 11 ran 8th 9/1

09 May 26 Killarney My Mary Ellen (IRE)J: Kevin Healy Donie Sheahan Memorial Irish EBF Mares Beginners Chase21f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran PU 300/1

08 May 26 Ballinrobe Calamint (IRE)J: Yudish Geerdharry McGrath Limestone Works Handicap (0-60)9.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 3rd 15/2

08 May 26 Downpatrick Silent Dawn (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Peter Fitzpatrick & Sons Estate Agents And Chartered Surveyors Handicap Chase (0-100)19.5f · Good · 10 ran 5th 18/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Adrian Murray's strike rate?: Adrian Murray has won 89 of 979 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adrian Murray do best at?: Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 31 wins from 234 runners (13.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Adrian Murray?: David Egan, with 147 runners since 2022 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (14.3%).
What is Adrian Murray's Fair A/E?: 1.13, from 978 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.