1:26 Newcastle
This Class 5 novices' handicap steeplechase at Newcastle over 2m7f91y on good ground serves as a qualifier for the Go North Forgive 'N Forget Series. A field of six runners lines up with no standout standout in the official ratings, though the KTB Fit Scores identify a tight contest at the top between Royal Time and Luminaries. The race lacks an obvious front-runner and the KTB numbers point to a competitive affair where recent form and course knowledge could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with medium confidence, as there is no obvious front-runner among the six. Most principals, including Royal Time, Luminaries, Wearelongterm and Joie More, are prominent runners who race handily on or close to the lead, which should see them contest the early fractions. Thereyare and The Kings Soldier are held-up types who will look to produce their efforts from off the pace. The key question is whether the prominent group can dictate matters or if the race will fragment and play into the hands of those coming from behind in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Royal Time KTB Selection64/100
Royal Time is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after winning at this level last time. He steps up in trip today having been only once at this distance without success, while the switch to Newcastle marks his first run at the track. The 7-year-old is a prominent runner who usually races handily on or close to the lead and his recent form figures of -43531 underline his current wellbeing. Christian Williams holds a 29% strike rate at Newcastle from seven runs although the trainer and jockey combination shows 0/35 (0%). He has a record of 1 win from 10 starts on good ground with one placing and carries an official rating of 91.
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2Luminaries63/100
Luminaries is a fair performer who has won three of his five starts at Newcastle and arrives in solid form after two recent victories. The 9-year-old has a respectable record on good ground with four wins from 17 starts and the trainer holds a 12% strike rate here from 43 runs. He drops back in trip today having been unsuccessful in two previous runs at this distance yet his course record of 3 from 5 marks him out as a major player. A prominent runner who usually races handily on or close to the lead, he is ridden by Sean Quinlan who has a 12% strike rate at the track from 358 rides. The combination of trainer and jockey shows 7/43 (16%) and his official rating is 82.
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3Wearelongterm58/100
Wearelongterm is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a recent win at this trip. The 9-year-old has shown ability on good ground with a win and three places from ten starts yet his record at Newcastle is unproven as he makes his first appearance here. Dropping in class, he is another prominent runner who usually races handily on or close to the lead and his recent form figures of -P7U31 show he is competitive at this level. Dianne Sayer has a 5% strike rate at the track from 113 runs while Ryan Mania boasts a 14% strike rate at Newcastle from 284 rides. The trainer and jockey record stands at 29/230 (13%) and he carries an official rating of 81.
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4Thereyare51/100
Thereyare is a useful performer who showed real promise when winning at this trip on good ground last time out. Lightly raced with only four career starts, the 5-year-old is backed by solid ratings and history and holds an official rating of 90. He is a held-up type who usually produces his effort late and the yard have an 8% strike rate at Newcastle from 53 runs which sits in line with their record elsewhere. Charlie Maggs takes the ride and has an 11% strike rate at the track from 36 rides while the trainer and jockey combination shows 0/10 (0%). He boasts a record of 1 win from 1 start on good ground with one placing.
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5Joie More46/100
Joie More is a fair performer who has been struggling for some time and is now 0-15 since last year. Only one visit to Newcastle produced a modest sixth and the trainer's 3% strike rate here is in line with their record elsewhere. He drops back in trip today having failed to place in three previous tries at this distance and has shown nothing on good ground in two starts.
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6The Kings Soldier41/100
The Kings Soldier is a modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without threatening to win. He drops back in trip today having failed to place in three previous tries at this distance and holds a poor record on good ground from nine attempts. The yard has a 17% strike rate at Newcastle from a small sample.
KTB verdict
Royal Time looks the one to beat as the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer in decent nick after a recent win at this level, is effective when prominent, and represents a trainer with a strong 29% strike rate at Newcastle. The step up in trip is the main unknown but he arrives with momentum on his side. Luminaries is the obvious danger given his excellent record at the track and recent winning form, while Wearelongterm and Thereyare cannot be dismissed on recent victories and promising profiles respectively.
KTB Selection Royal Time
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:02am, 27 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Royal Time | 3/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Luminaries | 10/3 | William Hill, 12:02am |
| Wearelongterm | 9/4 | 7Bet, 12:02am |
| Thereyare | 3/1 | 7Bet, 12:02am |
| Joie More | 16/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| The Kings Soldier | 25/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:26 Newcastle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newcastle results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Newcastle racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Newcastle?
Luminaries has won three of his five starts at Newcastle.
How many of the principals race prominently?
Three of the four principals – Royal Time, Luminaries and Wearelongterm – are prominent runners who usually race handily on or close to the lead.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Wearelongterm is dropping in class.
Who is the most lightly raced horse in the field?
Thereyare is lightly raced with only four career starts.
What is the trainer strike rate at Newcastle for the handler of the selection?
Christian Williams has a 29% strike rate at Newcastle from seven runs.
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