12:56 Newcastle
This Class 4 maiden hurdle at Newcastle, a qualifier for the Go North Night Nurse Series and carrying GBB status, brings together six runners over an extended two miles on good ground. The KTB Fit scores identify a clear top four with My Mate Aj heading the list on 68, followed by Wilde's Legacy on 61, Mac's Max on 60 and Come On John on 45, while the remaining pair sit on 43. Recent bumper and flat form dominates the picture, with several horses stepping up or down in class and the majority making their first start over hurdles at this venue.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types and setting up a fair test. My Mate Aj tends to make the running or race prominently, while Wilde's Legacy and Champagne Powder are usually on or close to the lead. Mac's Max and Captain Ted prefer to be held up or settle in midfield, as does Come On John, so the key question is whether the early pace holds up or if the race falls apart for those coming from off it on this extended trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1My Mate Aj KTB Selection68/100
My Mate Aj has shown fair form in three bumper runs, finishing a close third on his most recent start. He steps up in trip today which is a fresh question, while the half-brother to Mikhailovich comes from a family that has produced winners. The yard records a 26% strike rate at Newcastle from 19 runs, though data confidence remains low given the small sample. Kielan Woods takes the ride with a 29% strike rate at the track from 21 rides. He has won his only start on good ground and tends to make the running or race on the pace. This represents a step up in class but he is taken to build on his placed bumper form.
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2Wilde's Legacy61/100
Wilde's Legacy arrives off a 1-1-0 recent record in three runs and is now pitched into a Class 4 at Newcastle. The yard records a 24 percent strike rate here from 17 runs. Trip experience is limited to one run without success and the going sample is too small to judge. Gavin Sheehan is in the saddle with a strong 37% strike rate at Newcastle from 30 rides. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he drops in class which could bring improvement. The overall profile suggests he should go well if the limited data on trip and ground proves no barrier.
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3Mac's Max60/100
Mac's Max has shown fair placed form in three of his four starts including a second over C&D on his most recent outing. He steps up in trip again today having been placed once at this distance without winning. The yard records a 16% strike rate at Newcastle from 140 runs which is in line with their record elsewhere while the jockey has an 18% strike rate at the track from 66 rides. Richie McLernon partners him as he drops in class. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he remains unproven on good ground. The C&D placing gives him solid claims in a race where his run-style could see him come into it late.
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4Come On John45/100
Come On John has a lengthy career behind him yet remains only modestly exposed at this trip having never tried beyond 1m4f before. He has failed to place in five runs on good ground and makes his first visit to Newcastle. The trainer’s 7% strike rate here is in line with their record elsewhere. Nathan Moscrop takes the mount with a 13% strike rate at the track from 162 rides. Typically settling in midfield, he steps up in class. The profile points to a modest level of ability and he may find a few too strong on his hurdling debut.
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5Champagne Powder43/100
Champagne Powder has shown little in two runs this year and arrives with a modest overall record from 14 starts. The trainer holds a 7% strike rate at Newcastle from 191 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, while the 7lb claimer has no established record at the track. First-time headgear is now applied as the horse steps up in trip on ground where it is 0-4. Usually racing handily, he looks up against it.
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6Captain Ted43/100
Captain Ted has shown only modest form in two runs so far and remains lightly raced with a small sample to judge him on. The trip looks a fair question after one unsuccessful attempt at it. Trainer Chris Grant has an 8% strike rate at Newcastle from 571 runs which sits in line with his overall record while jockey Danny McMenamin has a 17% strike rate at the track from 209 rides. Half-brother to Ask Ben out of a dam that has produced winners, he typically settles in midfield and is likely to find this too competitive.
KTB verdict
My Mate Aj is the KTB Selection. He has shown fair form in bumpers, notably a close third last time, and the step up in trip should suit given his pedigree as a half-brother to Mikhailovich from a winning family. Ben Pauling's 26% strike rate at Newcastle and Kielan Woods' 29% record at the track add further positives, along with his proven ability on good ground and front-running style that fits the expected pace. The main dangers are Wilde's Legacy, who drops in class with strong jockey figures, and Mac's Max, who has placed form over C&D and can be produced late. Come On John looks modest and the other pair have plenty to find.
KTB Selection My Mate Aj
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:02am, 27 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| My Mate Aj | 7/4 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Wilde's Legacy | 4/7 | BoyleSports, 12:02am |
| Mac's Max | 28/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Come On John | 100/1 | 7Bet, 12:02am |
| Champagne Powder | 18/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
| Captain Ted | 33/1 | Bet365, 12:02am |
This is the narrative read of the 12:56 Newcastle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newcastle results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Newcastle racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip having shown fair bumper form with a close third last time?
My Mate Aj, who is a half-brother to Mikhailovich from a family that has produced winners.
Who has course and distance placing but remains unproven on good ground?
Mac's Max, who has shown fair placed form including a second over C&D.
Which runner is having first-time headgear fitted and has shown little in two runs this year?
Champagne Powder, who steps up in trip on ground where he is 0-4.
What is the expected pace shape and how does it relate to the front-runner in the field?
Genuinely run with high confidence, a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types, and My Mate Aj tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse drops in class with a 1-1-0 recent record and a jockey boasting 37% strike rate at Newcastle?
Wilde's Legacy, whose trip and going samples are too small to judge fully.
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