What is Craig Nichol's strike rate?

Craig Nichol has won 153 of 1,466 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10.4% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Craig Nichol do best at?

Kelso by strike rate: 26 wins from 167 rides (15.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Craig Nichol ride most for?

Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero, with 232 rides since 2022 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 27 (11.6%).

Is Craig Nichol in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 6 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Craig Nichol's Fair A/E?

1.10, from 1,464 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Craig Nichol

1,466 rides in the last 5 seasons · 565 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 3 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)

from 1 Jan 2022

153–1,466

Wins / Runs

10.4%

Strike rate

n=1,466

381 (26%)

Placed

1.10

Fair A/E

n=1,464 · 0.95 incl. margin

−187.47

£1 level stake

n=1,466 at SP · −12.8%

£1.95m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.5%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 290 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.10). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (148 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,466 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 36.7% when favourite Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero: 11.6% from 232 LTO winners: 18.9% Rides the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Kelso (15.6%, n=167), clear of the rider's 10.4% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 18.9% (n=148, Fair A/E 1.26), but first rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 6.7% (n=480, Fair A/E 1.00). Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero supplies 16% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (11.6%, A/E 1.06) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso (Mar 2025, £61,728). The standout partner of the record: Robin's Command (IRE) — 8 wins from 16 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.4% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.7%−3.7

n=480 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −107.38

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

18.9%+8.5

n=148 · A/E 1.26 · £1 +11.93

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

8.4%−2.0

n=358 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −68.62

When favourite

36.7%

n=98 · A/E 1.17 · £1 +3.17

Big fields · 14+ runners

7.4%−3.0

n=149 · A/E 1.45 · £1 −18.77

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

5.3%−5.1

n=19 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −8.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 18.9% vs 10.4% · n=148

With Sam Allwood 0% vs 10.4% · n=32

With C&D winners 17.1% vs 10.4% · n=158

At Kelso 15.6% vs 10.4% · n=167

With Pauline Robson 17.5% vs 10.4% · n=40

With Donald Whillans 15.8% vs 10.4% · n=120

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 869 89 10.2% −93.84

Chase 482 58 12% −109.13

NH Flat 111 6 5.4% +19.50

Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good to Soft 477 47 9.9% −65.65

Good 454 51 11.2% +33.74

Soft 433 42 9.7% −144.64

Heavy 91 11 12.1% −25.42

Good to Firm 8 2 25% +17.50

Standard (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kelso 167 26 15.6% +26.32

Ayr 149 21 14.1% +36.66

Newcastle 138 8 5.8% −86.67

Musselburgh 115 17 14.8% +26.03

Hexham 107 16 15% +39.38

Carlisle 100 6 6% −66.50

Sedgefield 96 10 10.4% +34.75

Perth 70 5 7.1% +9.38

Wetherby 64 7 10.9% −29.65

Catterick 60 3 5% −53.08

Uttoxeter 58 5 8.6% +1.00

Doncaster 44 4 9.1% −26.63

Market Rasen 42 4 9.5% +6.00

Bangor-on-Dee 35 5 14.3% −19.33

Haydock 35 4 11.4% −11.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 688 79 11.5% −30.31

Class 5 450 39 8.7% −100.69

Class 3 197 23 11.7% −42.59

Class 2 102 11 10.8% +4.12

Class 1 29 1 3.4% −18.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 115 40 34.8% 1.16 +1.00

2nd–3rd fav 286 48 16.8% 1.00 −41.97

4th–6th fav 561 51 9.1% 1.22 +32.50

7th+ in betting 504 14 2.8% 0.94 −179.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.6% completed · 1,351 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 482 82.8% 10 5 68 0 0

Hurdle 869 85.6% 13 13 97 1 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Scots Poet (GB) 24 4 6 22 Dec 25

Cracking Destiny (IRE) 19 3 6 30 Oct 25

Shoeshine Boy (IRE) 18 6 12 22 Oct 26

Cracking Rhapsody (IRE) 18 5 8 13 Mar 26

Ip Up (FR) 16 2 8 20 Dec 25

Limerick Leader (FR) 16 1 6 16 May 24

Get With It (IRE) 16 2 4 18 Feb 24

Dream Jet (IRE) 15 3 6 14 Oct 26

Cowboy Cooper (IRE) 15 3 7 10 Feb 26

Captain Quint (IRE) 15 3 5 1 Feb 25

Lizzie Luna (GB) 14 1 2 16 Feb 26

Kingston Bridge (IRE) 13 4 6 29 Dec 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 565 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 6

Only 6 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

10121111171111055149

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardOliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero

16% of all rides
11.6% SR · A/E 1.06

TrainerRWSR£1

Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero 232 27 11.6% −14.83

Ewan Whillans 208 26 12.5% +145.87

Rose Dobbin 173 16 9.2% −62.03

Donald Whillans 120 19 15.8% +15.46

Brian Ellison 115 16 13.9% +23.75

Paul Robson 71 11 15.5% −2.00

Oliver Greenall 47 4 8.5% −28.88

Pauline Robson 40 7 17.5% −10.14

Jedd O'Keeffe 39 3 7.7% −23.50

Iain Jardine 36 2 5.6% −28.75

Sam Allwood 32 0 0% −32.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→

367

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.87m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 38 wins

Cracking Rhapsody (IRE) — bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) (GBB Race) Kelso · Mar 2025 · Class 2

£61,728

Cracking Rhapsody (IRE) — bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) (GBB Race) Kelso · Mar 2024 · Class 2

£61,728

Cracking Rhapsody (IRE) — Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Ayr · Apr 2025 · Grade 2

£56,270

Notable horses

Robin's Command (IRE) Shoeshine Boy (IRE) Jonniesofa (IRE) Honourable Gent (GB) Cracking Rhapsody (IRE) Caius Marcius (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Yeats (IRE) 12.1% · 7–58

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,836 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Getaway (GER) 7.3% · 4–55

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,979 runs since 2016 (1,029 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Flemensfirth (USA) 13% · 7–54

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,287 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Jet Away (GB) 16.7% · 9–54

Progeny have won 11.2% of 2,541 runs since 2018 (273 horses).

Doyen (IRE) 18.9% · 7–37

Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,374 runs since 2009 (605 horses).

Mahler (GB) 0% · 0–24

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,871 runs since 2014 (786 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,569 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,569 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 May 2011 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

01 Nov 26 Carlisle Grozni (FR)T: Sandy Thomson Pricedup Boosts And Bog Cumberland Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 26f · Good · 8 ran 8th 50/1

31 Oct 26 Ayr Melbourne Ghost (IRE)T: Donald Whillans Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 6th 20/1

31 Oct 26 Ayr Wolfburg (IRE)T: Sandy Thomson Bet With Rails Bookmakers On Course Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Monet's Garden Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 9th 9/1

31 Oct 26 Ayr King Kubala (IRE)T: Sandy Thomson Ben Arthur's Bothy Of Arrochar Ebf 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 9/2

27 Oct 26 Newcastle Koa Beau (IRE)T: Ewan Whillans Breeders' Cup On Sky Sports Racing Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 8th 33/1

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Shoeshine Boy (IRE)T: Donald Whillans Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 12th 33/1

20 Oct 26 Hexham Blakey Boy (IRE)T: Ewan Whillans Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Brindisi Breeze Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 23.5f · Good · 5 ran 4th 9/4

20 Oct 26 Hexham Billy Bathgate (GB)T: Ewan Whillans Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 8th 6/1

15 Oct 26 Perth Star Of Guiting (IRE)T: Ewan Whillans Every Irish Race Live On RacingTV Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 11/2

14 Oct 26 Wetherby Dream Jet (IRE)T: Brian Ellison Watch Race Replays On Racing TV Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 4th 12/1

10 Oct 26 Hexham Athair Mor (IRE)T: Ewan Whillans Blaydon Races Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North One Man Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 15.5f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 11/4J

26 Sep 26 Market Rasen You Did (IRE)T: Brian Ellison Agriculture Raceday Returns On 12th November Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23f · Good · 10 ran 4th 11/1

26 Sep 26 Market Rasen Dream Jet (IRE)T: Brian Ellison £10 County Racedays Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18.5f · Good · 11 ran 6th 13/2

24 Sep 26 Perth Zephlyn (IRE)T: Ewan Whillans A Place For You Here Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 6th 12/1

21 Mar 26 Kelso El Gangster (IRE)T: Donald Whillans Racing Post+ Jodami Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 5th 5/1

21 Mar 26 Kelso Melbourne Ghost (IRE)T: Donald Whillans KOSB Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 5th 150/1

21 Mar 26 Kelso Aboutdamntime (IRE)T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero Remembering Duncan Davidson Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 26f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 2nd 9/2

21 Mar 26 Kelso My Noble Lord (USA)T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero BetWright Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 22/1

21 Mar 26 Kelso Judicial Deference (IRE)T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero BetWright Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 14 ran BD 13/2

20 Mar 26 Musselburgh Follow Charlie (IRE)T: R Mike Smith Racing Post+ Ultimate Go North Brindisi Breeze Hurdle Series Final (Handicap Hurdle) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 9th 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 22 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 1 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Craig Nichol's strike rate?: Craig Nichol has won 153 of 1,466 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10.4% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Craig Nichol do best at?: Kelso by strike rate: 26 wins from 167 rides (15.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Craig Nichol ride most for?: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero, with 232 rides since 2022 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 27 (11.6%).
Is Craig Nichol in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 6 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Craig Nichol's Fair A/E?: 1.10, from 1,464 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.