1:30 Doncaster
The William Hill Futurity Trophy Stakes is a Group 1 for two-year-olds over a mile on heavy ground at Doncaster. A field of seven features several smart juveniles stepping up in class or trip, with the KTB Fit Scores separating a clear top four from the rest. Al Hudaiba heads the numbers on a mark of 112 and with five wins from six starts, while Burning Up, Gran Dia and Noble Exhibit complete the principals in a race that asks fresh questions of most runners.
How the race shapes up
A genuinely-run, fair test is expected with Noble Exhibit likely to make the running or race prominently and several others, including Burning Up, Gran Dia, Giant Sequoia and Sergei Diaghilev, set to race handily or press the pace. Al Hudaiba and Breacher are the main mid-division types. The key question is whether the prominent runners can maintain their effort in the testing conditions or if a closer will be better placed to strike in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Al Hudaiba KTB Selection63/100
Al Hudaiba is a smart two-year-old boasting five wins from six starts and an official rating of 112. He steps up to a mile for the first time having last raced over seven furlongs, which poses a fresh question. Charlie Appleby has a 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 252 runs, in line with his overall record, while William Buick holds a 21% strike rate at the track from 526 rides. The colt typically settles in midfield. He has no experience of heavy ground and no previous course form on record.
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2Burning Up58/100
Burning Up is a smart performer with two wins from three starts, including success at this trip. He is lightly raced with only three runs in total and the heavy ground remains an unknown. Half-brother to Listed winner Novakai, with the dam having produced one winner from three other runners. K R Burke's 9% strike rate at Doncaster from 581 runs sits below his 12% elsewhere, while Clifford Lee has an 11% record at the track from 150 rides. He usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
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3Gran Dia55/100
Gran Dia won his only start to date over this trip on debut and now steps up in class. He is a half-brother to Group 2 winner Composing, with the dam having produced one other winner. Andrew Balding has a 14% strike rate at Doncaster from 464 runs, in line with his overall record, while Oisin Murphy holds a 16% strike rate at the track from 332 rides. The colt usually races handily on or close to the lead, though that assessment is based on limited evidence. He has no experience of heavy ground and no previous course form.
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4Noble Exhibit51/100
Noble Exhibit has won both his starts at this trip and arrives on the back of a hat-trick that includes a Listed success. Half-brother to Group 3 winner History, with the dam having produced three winners from four other runners. Aidan O'Brien has a 14% strike rate at Doncaster from 238 runs, which sits below his 19% at other tracks, while Ryan Moore has an 18% strike rate at the course from 484 rides. He tends to make the running or race on the pace. With only three career runs the form must be treated with caution on heavy ground where the sample is too small to judge.
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5Giant Sequoia46/100
Giant Sequoia has shown useful ability with two wins from four starts as a juvenile but finished last of six on his most recent outing. He steps up to a mile for the first time, which asks a fresh question. Half of the dam's other two runners have been unplaced. Aidan O'Brien has a 14% strike rate at Doncaster from 238 runs, below his 19% elsewhere, while Dylan Browne McMonagle has a 17% record at the track from a small sample of six rides. He usually races handily with high confidence.
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6Sergei Diaghilev45/100
Sergei Diaghilev has placed in three of five starts including a second at Doncaster and another at this trip where he is one from two. Full brother to Listed winner Endorsement, with the dam having produced one winner from her other runner. Aidan O'Brien has a 14% strike rate at Doncaster from 238 runs, below his 19% at other tracks, while W M Lordan has a 7% record at the course from 28 rides. He usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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7Breacher41/100
Breacher is a useful performer who has run to a similar level in three starts, finishing third in a Listed race here and in a Group 3 last time. He steps up to a mile for the first time, which asks a fresh question. The dam has produced no winners from her two other runners. William Muir & Chris Grassick have a 4% strike rate at Doncaster from 27 runs, in line with their record elsewhere. He has been placed once from one run at the track and typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Al Hudaiba is the KTB Selection. His strong recent record of five wins from six starts and an official rating of 112 mark him out as the one to beat in a race where several runners are stepping up in trip or class. The mile looks within range and the Appleby-Buick combination brings strong Doncaster figures. The main dangers are Burning Up, who has won at the trip and remains lightly raced, and the progressive Noble Exhibit, who is likely to set the pace from the front. Gran Dia's debut success also demands respect.
KTB Selection Al Hudaiba
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:04am, 24 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Al Hudaiba | 7/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Burning Up | 7/2 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Gran Dia | 12/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Noble Exhibit | 11/8 | 7Bet, 1:04am |
| Giant Sequoia | 14/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Sergei Diaghilev | 9/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Breacher | 10/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:30 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Doncaster racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first start over a mile?
Al Hudaiba last ran over 7f, while Giant Sequoia, Breacher and Gran Dia are all stepping up to 1m for the first time.
How many wins has Al Hudaiba recorded from his six starts?
Five wins from six starts.
Which horse is the only one in the field with previous course form at Doncaster?
Sergei Diaghilev has run once here, finishing second, while Breacher has finished third once at the track.
Who is the most lightly raced horse among the principals?
Burning Up with only three runs total and Gran Dia with just one run.
What is the KTB Fit Score for the selection Al Hudaiba?
63/100
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