1:37 Leicester
This Class 4 British EBF Maiden Stakes over six furlongs at Leicester on heavy ground features a field of seven two-year-olds with limited racecourse evidence between them. Four of the runners are making their debut, while the remainder bring just one, two or three previous starts, leaving the KTB numbers painting a picture of considerable guesswork and low overall data confidence. The top four in the KTB Fit ranking are led by the newcomer Giant of Old on 60, followed by Rogue Constelation on 50, Glimmer on 48 and Al Mhalhel on 44.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as muddling and tactical with medium confidence and no obvious front-runner, which should favour those capable of being ridden close to the pace. Rogue Constelation and Corbie Rock both have prominent run-styles and look likely to take up forward positions, while Giant of Old, Glimmer and Al Mhalhel can be expected to race handily in a race that lacks a clear leader. The key question is whether any of the debutants can show enough early speed to take advantage of the shape or whether the placed horses will be able to dominate from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Giant of Old KTB Selection60/100
Giant of Old is a newcomer whose pedigree offers some encouragement. He is a half-brother to Listed winner Hikmaa and comes from a dam who has produced four winners from four runners to race. The Oliver Cole yard posts a 20% strike rate at Leicester from 10 runs, while Jack Callan has a 25% strike rate at the track from 20 rides. By Churchill, he has a 10% overall win rate on offspring with no course win on record for the horse himself. With no racecourse form and low data confidence the picture remains tentative, yet the selection is made on the strength of his family and the yard's local record.
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2Rogue Constelation50/100
Rogue Constelation showed fair promise when third on debut over 7f. Dropping back to 6f today asks a fresh question of a horse with only one run in the book. Trainer Edward Bethell has an 11% strike rate at Leicester from 28 runs in line with his record elsewhere while David Probert has no supplied record at the track. The horse is dropping in class and usually races handily on or close to the lead according to limited evidence. He has recorded one run on heavy ground without a win or place. The combination of that debut promise and a prominent run-style could see him play a significant role in this muddling tactical affair.
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3Glimmer48/100
Glimmer is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The Emma Lavelle yard has a 20% strike rate at Leicester from 61 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, and teams up with Sean Levey who holds a 16% strike rate at the track from 177 rides. By Twilight Son, the colt has a 10% overall win rate on offspring and no course win on record. Pedigree and sales background will need to be respected given the low data confidence. A prominent ride in a race lacking an obvious leader could suit, though everything remains unproven on heavy ground.
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4Al Mhalhel44/100
Al Mhalhel is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests on pedigree and connections. He is a half-brother to modest winner Admiral D and comes from a dam who has produced three winners from six runners. The Ollie Sangster yard holds a 13% strike rate at Leicester from 15 runs while Stevie Donohoe has no recorded rides at the track. By Starman, he has a 12% overall win rate on offspring and no course win on record. With the race expected to be tactical and lacking an obvious front-runner, his ability to race close to the pace on debut will be of interest.
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5If You Like41/100
If You Like showed little at debut and is now pitched into a race with very few clues to work from. The William Haggas yard records a 15% strike rate at Leicester from 357 runs which sits below their 20% at other tracks, while Harry Davies has a 5% strike rate at the course from 39 rides. Dropping in class and usually held up to produce its effort late, the colt is unproven on heavy ground.
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6Cracking Toast33/100
Cracking Toast has shown only limited ability in three starts to date and was beaten 8 lengths when fifth of seven on his only run here. The step up from 5f to 6f today asks a fresh question while he carries a modest official rating of 50. Trainer Gary Hanmer operates at an 8% strike rate at Leicester from 38 runs, in line with his record elsewhere, and the horse is unproven on heavy ground. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he has a family line as half-brother to Lope Y Linda who won 3 from 20.
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7Corbie Rock29/100
Corbie Rock has shown only modest form in two starts to date and is now dropping back from 7f to 6f having failed to trouble the judge at the shorter trip on his only previous attempt. The Jane Chapple-Hyam yard records a 4% strike rate at Leicester from 77 runs which is in line with their 11% at other courses while apprentice Sorin Moldoveanu has had only a handful of rides at the track. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, the colt must be treated with caution given low data confidence.
KTB verdict
Giant of Old is the KTB Selection in a race where hard facts are thin on the ground. The half-brother to a Listed winner comes from a dam with a perfect record of producing winners from her runners to date, and the yard's 20% strike rate at Leicester adds further interest to his debut. While the lack of racecourse form keeps the assessment tentative, the selection is made on pedigree and local trainer form in a muddling tactical contest that should suit those able to race close to the pace. Rogue Constelation brings the strongest piece of form with his third on debut and his prominent run-style could prove an asset, while Glimmer and Al Mhalhel are debutants whose pedigrees and yard records command respect in an open-looking event.
KTB Selection Giant of Old
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:22am, 26 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Giant of Old | 11/4 | Bet365, 12:20am |
| Rogue Constelation | 5/6 | Bet365, 12:20am |
| Glimmer | 11/1 | William Hill, 12:20am |
| Al Mhalhel | 9/1 | William Hill, 12:20am |
| If You Like | 10/1 | William Hill, 12:20am |
| Cracking Toast | 100/1 | Bet365, 12:20am |
| Corbie Rock | 33/1 | Virgin Bet, 12:20am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:37 Leicester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leicester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leicester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Leicester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest pedigree among the debutants?
Giant of Old is a half-brother to Listed winner Hikmaa with a dam who has had 4 other runners, 4 of them winners.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The muddling and tactical pace shape with no obvious front-runner should suit those ridden close to the pace.
Which runners are proven on heavy ground?
Only Rogue Constelation has a run on heavy ground, where he failed to win or place.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Leicester among the principals?
Emma Lavelle has a 20% strike rate at Leicester from 61 runs with Glimmer, matching Oliver Cole's 20% from 10 runs with Giant of Old.
What is the official rating of the most exposed horse?
Cracking Toast carries a modest official rating of 50.
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