What is David Probert's strike rate?

David Probert has won 513 of 4,177 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.3% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does David Probert do best at?

Ffos Las by strike rate: 22 wins from 123 rides (17.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does David Probert ride most for?

Andrew Balding, with 906 rides since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 128 (14.1%).

Is David Probert in form?

In the last 14 days: 31 rides, 2 winners, a strike rate of 6.5%. That is below the baseline of 12.3% since 2022.

What is David Probert's Fair A/E?

1.03, from 4,162 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

David Probert

4,177 rides in the last 5 seasons · 2,460 individual horses

As at 24 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 2 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

513–4,177

Wins / Runs

12.3%

Strike rate

n=4,177

1,274 (31%)

Placed

1.03

Fair A/E

n=4,162 · 0.89 incl. margin

−576.92

£1 level stake

n=4,177 at SP · −13.8%

£8.46m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.8%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 840 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.03). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (471 rides). The rider is quiet just now — 2 winners in the last fortnight, below their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 4,177 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 24 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Apr Fresh horses: 13.1% 34.9% when favourite Andrew Balding: 14.1% from 906 LTO winners: 16.6% Rides the favourite in 9% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Ffos Las (17.9%, n=123), clear of the rider's 12.3% baseline. It is weakest at Newmarket (4.9% over 123 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.6% (n=471, Fair A/E 0.97), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6% (n=367, Fair A/E 1.02). Right now the rider is in a quiet spell: 2 from 31 rides in the last 14 days (6.5%, 5.8pts below the 12.3% baseline). Andrew Balding supplies 22% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (14.1%, A/E 0.97) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (22.3%, n=130). 47 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Qatar Stewards' Cup at Goodwood (Jul 2016, £155,625). The standout partner of the record: Dora Penny (GB) — 7 wins from 14 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jan–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.3% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.4%−0.9

n=2,205 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −235.85

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

16.6%+4.3

n=471 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −134.93

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

13.1%+0.8

n=641 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −77.78

When favourite

34.9%

n=395 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −51.68

Big fields · 14+ runners

6%−6.3

n=367 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −56.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.5%−4.8

n=213 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −63.17

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 22.3% vs 12.3% · n=130

With Michael Herrington 23.7% vs 12.3% · n=59

At Newmarket 4.9% vs 12.3% · n=123

With Tom Ward 2.9% vs 12.3% · n=34

At Ffos Las 17.9% vs 12.3% · n=123

On last-time-out winners 16.6% vs 12.3% · n=471

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,970 264 13.4% −250.30

Good 786 72 9.2% −196.47

Good to Firm 668 82 12.3% −117.62

Good to Soft 326 46 14.1% +0.12

Soft 284 29 10.2% +2.07

Heavy 115 15 13% −20.92

Firm 28 5 17.9% +6.20

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 541 67 12.4% −117.97

Kempton (AW) 527 66 12.5% −25.91

Lingfield (AW) 418 64 15.3% −13.24

Southwell (AW) 216 32 14.8% −44.33

Chelmsford City (AW) 212 30 14.2% −12.48

Newbury 201 18 9% −69.37

Goodwood 175 18 10.3% −31.57

Bath 161 25 15.5% +15.85

Ascot 154 18 11.7% −0.12

Windsor 154 12 7.8% −65.92

Chester 127 19 15% +9.37

Newmarket 123 6 4.9% −90.30

Ffos Las 123 22 17.9% +15.06

Leicester 105 18 17.1% +16.13

Salisbury 102 11 10.8% −10.19

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,188 178 15% −58.25

Class 6 1,039 124 11.9% −141.78

Class 4 934 101 10.8% −260.76

Class 2 436 47 10.8% −14.38

Class 3 367 47 12.8% −38.58

Class 1 213 16 7.5% −63.17

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 481 154 32% 1.00 −77.39

2nd–3rd fav 1,042 190 18.2% 1.06 −66.53

4th–6th fav 1,508 127 8.4% 1.02 −255.00

7th+ in betting 1,146 42 3.7% 1.06 −178.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Diamond Dreamer (GB) 15 4 6 28 Sep 26

Raqraaq (USA) 15 2 5 18 Aug 26

Spanish Star (IRE) 15 2 5 24 Jun 25

Dourado (IRE) 15 2 4 17 Mar 25

Rathgar (GB) 13 2 6 29 Aug 26

King's Lynn (GB) 12 1 5 7 Aug 25

Flatley (GB) 12 2 4 29 Apr 25

Amathus (IRE) 11 1 4 28 Sep 26

King of The Dance (IRE) 11 2 6 27 Sep 26

Port Noir (GB) 11 1 5 13 Aug 25

Darvel (IRE) 10 1 2 15 Oct 26

Maharajas Express (GB) 10 4 5 29 Sep 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 2,460 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

2 from 31 6.5% · −5.8pts vs baseline

Last 14 days6.5%

5-season base12.3%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1615161412915121191010

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardAndrew Balding

22% of all rides
14.1% SR · A/E 0.97

TrainerRWSR£1

Andrew Balding 906 128 14.1% −180.66

Hugo Palmer 164 20 12.2% +55.39

Jack Channon 141 21 14.9% +6.91

Patrick Chamings 136 16 11.8% +2.45

Ian Williams 77 13 16.9% +14.13

David Evans 70 12 17.1% +31.08

Alan King 68 10 14.7% −4.75

Clive Cox 67 9 13.4% +21.83

Hughie Morrison 63 8 12.7% −28.75

Michael Herrington 59 14 23.7% +29.96

Tony Carroll 58 5 8.6% +13.00

Mark Loughnane 57 4 7% −28.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

1,764

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£21.1m

Prize money

2021

Best season · 170 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Dancing Star (GB) — Qatar Stewards' Cup (Heritage Handicap) Goodwood · Jul 2016 · Class 2

£155,625

Sandrine (GB) — World Pool Lennox Stakes (Group 2) Goodwood · Jul 2022 · Group 2

£102,078

Coppull (GB) — Markel Richmond Stakes (Group 2) Goodwood · Jul 2025 · Group 2

£99,243

Notable horses

Dora Penny (GB) Misaro (GER) Dourado (IRE) Pelham Crescent (IRE) Viola Park (GB) Eye Of The Water (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dark Angel (IRE) 12.6% · 17–135

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,887 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Kodiac (GB) 7.8% · 8–102

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,548 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Oasis Dream (GB) 17.1% · 13–76

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,007 runs since 2008 (1,510 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 482. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.

Showcasing (GB) 10.1% · 7–69

Progeny have won 10.1% of 11,601 runs since 2008 (997 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Havana Grey (GB) 20.6% · 13–63

Progeny have won 13.3% of 4,543 runs since 2008 (417 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.3% from 104. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10.3% from 409.

Kingman (GB) 16.4% · 10–61

Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,478 runs since 2008 (775 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 960. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9.1% from 121.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 24 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 15,301 · newest first

The latest 50 of 15,301 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 13 December 2006 to 22 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Spring Bloom (GB)T: John Butler CopyBet Follow Us On X Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Soft · 12 ran 11th 16/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Phantom Watch (IRE)T: Hugo Palmer CopyBet Pay First Past The Post Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 12/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Mr Bling (IRE)T: Hugo Palmer CopyBet For Europa League Profit Boosts EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 8f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 18/1

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Amelia's Joy (GB)T: Michael Herrington Try Unibet's Improved Acca Boosts Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 1st 100/30

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Indemnity (IRE)T: Emma Lavelle Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap Stakes (London Stayers' Series Qualifier) (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 13th 18/1

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Somers Isles (IRE)T: Andrew Balding Try Unibet's Improved Acca Boosts Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 7th 14/1

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Another Sky (GB)T: Owen Burrows Unibet/british Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 4th 16/1

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Stilton (GB)T: Hugo Palmer Try Unibet's Superboosts/british Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 7th 14/1

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Bayside Waltz (IRE)T: Andrew Balding Unibet Interactive "confined" Maiden Stakes (For Horses Which Have Run No More Than Once) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 5 ran 5th 20/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Green Area (GB)T: Charlie Johnston Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Heavy · 9 ran 9th 16/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Marble Sands (FR)T: David Killahena & Graeme McPherson Phil Bull Trophy Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 18f · Heavy · 9 ran 3rd 11/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Powdering (IRE)T: Michael Herrington British Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 3 · 6f · Heavy · 10 ran 5th 40/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Game Character (GB)T: Hugo Palmer British Stallion Studs Ebf Silver Tankard Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 8f · Heavy · 8 ran 3rd 9/4F

19 Oct 26 Pontefract High Hazard (GB)T: Hugo Palmer William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Soft · 11 ran 8th 18/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract High Tower (GB)T: George Boughey Happy 80th Birthday William 'bill' Carr Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Soft · 6 ran 4th 5/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Trapped Goddess (GER)T: Hugo Palmer Watch Live On Racing TV EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Good · 7 ran 1st 6/4F

16 Oct 26 Redcar My Girl Dee Mo (IRE)T: Hugo Palmer Join Racing TV Now British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 4/6F

16 Oct 26 Redcar Pushing The Limits (GB)T: Stephen Hanlon Join Racing TV Now British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 5th 3/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Darvel (IRE)T: Patrick Chamings bet365 Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good · 14 ran 6th 7/1

15 Oct 26 Brighton Bonnita (GB)T: Patrick Chamings Racing Value At bet365 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 9 ran 8th 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is David Probert's strike rate?: David Probert has won 513 of 4,177 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.3% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Probert do best at?: Ffos Las by strike rate: 22 wins from 123 rides (17.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does David Probert ride most for?: Andrew Balding, with 906 rides since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 128 (14.1%).
Is David Probert in form?: In the last 14 days: 31 rides, 2 winners, a strike rate of 6.5%. That is below the baseline of 12.3% since 2022.
What is David Probert's Fair A/E?: 1.03, from 4,162 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.