1:51 Newton Abbot
This Class 3 handicap hurdle at Newton Abbot over 2m5f122y on soft ground brings together a compact field of seven, several of whom are stepping up in class. The KTB Fit Scores range from 67 down to 49, indicating a race where proven ability on the surface and around the track will be at a premium, with four principals clearly separated from the remainder on the numbers. Heart Over Head heads the KTB rankings as the selection, though the likes of Lallygag, Calvino and Real Quartz all hold strong claims on their best efforts.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, as multiple horses have a habit of racing prominently or making the running. Calvino and Vol Royale are the most forward-going sorts, with Heart Over Head, Lallygag, Real Quartz and Moorland Rambler all inclined to race handily just in behind. This early speed could set the race up for a late collapse, posing the key question of which hold-up performers or those with the best stamina can pick up the pieces when the leaders tire in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Heart Over Head KTB Selection67/100
Heart Over Head arrives as the KTB selection with a Fit Score of 67 and an official rating of 117. A 7-year-old with recent form figures of 31108-, he steps up in class here but boasts solid placed form on soft ground from his one run. Prominent in his racing style, usually contesting handily or close to the lead, he should be well positioned to track the strong pace. The Fergal O'Brien yard posts a 22% strike rate at Newton Abbot from 213 runs, while Jack Hogan has struck at a 27% rate from just 11 rides at the track. No course form on record, yet his overall profile suggests he can make a serious impact stepping back into handicap company.
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2Lallygag64/100
Lallygag is rated a very live danger with a KTB Fit Score of 64 and an official rating of 128. Now a 9-year-old, his form figures read 2R112/ and he has already shown he can win at this venue with one success from four starts. Usually prominent and racing handily, he will be right in the thick of the strong pace. Paul Nicholls has an excellent 28% strike rate at Newton Abbot from 984 runs, though Freddie Keighley is yet to score from 13 rides here. His record on soft ground stands at one run with neither win nor place, yet the course-and-distance profile and trainer form make him a major player once again.
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3Calvino62/100
Calvino holds a KTB Fit Score of 62 and an official rating of 115 as a 6-year-old stepping up in class. His recent form reads 2P13P- and he showed useful placed form when second on his sole visit to Newton Abbot. A confirmed front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is sure to set the strong tempo early. First-time headgear is now applied. Paul Nicholls continues in strong form at the track with a 28% strike rate from 984 runs, and Freddie Gingell has a 25% record from 72 rides here. Unproven on soft ground, that remains the main question mark against him.
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4Real Quartz60/100
Real Quartz is next on the KTB list with a Fit Score of 60 and an official rating of 127. This 6-year-old boasts an unbeaten record in three completed starts with form figures of 1/11- and is a full brother to Alan De Banks, who won twice from six runs while the dam has produced one other winner. Usually prominent and racing handily, he should sit comfortably in a race run at a strong gallop. Dan Skelton has a 24% strike rate at Newton Abbot from 221 runs and Harry Skelton is 21% from 263 rides here. He has won his only start on soft ground from one placed effort, giving him solid claims if he can translate his progressive profile to this higher level.
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5Vol Royale57/100
Vol Royale carries a KTB Fit Score of 57 and an official rating of 124. Stepping up in class as a 6-year-old with form figures of 51171-, he is a front-runner who will be prominent in the expected strong pace. He holds a 1-3 record on soft ground with one placed effort, though the Kayley Woollacott yard is only 12% at Newton Abbot from 52 runs.
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6Moorland Rambler51/100
Moorland Rambler is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 51 and an official rating of 108. An 8-year-old stepping up in class with form of 47341-, he usually races prominently. Placed once from three runs on soft ground, he was seventh on his only previous visit to Newton Abbot, where the Mrs Jane Williams yard has a modest 5% strike rate from 57 runs.
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7Permis de Tuer49/100
Permis de Tuer has a KTB Fit Score of 49 and an official rating of 118. This 6-year-old has form figures of 1/8- and the dam has produced one other runner who was not a winner. He typically settles in mid-division though with limited evidence. One run on soft ground brought neither win nor place, and the Robert Walford stable is 7% at Newton Abbot from 46 runs.
KTB verdict
Heart Over Head is the KTB Selection and shapes as the one to beat on a Fit Score of 67 and his prominent style that should suit the strong pace. His placed effort on soft ground and the positive trainer and jockey figures at the track strengthen his claims as he steps back into a handicap. Lallygag, with course-winning form and the powerful Nicholls yard behind him, is the most obvious danger, while Calvino's front-running role and first-time headgear add interest despite the ground question. Real Quartz cannot be dismissed either on his progressive record and proven soft-ground ability.
KTB Selection Heart Over Head
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:28am, 28 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Heart Over Head | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:20am |
| Lallygag | 5/1 | Bet365, 12:20am |
| Calvino | 15/2 | Bet365, 12:20am |
| Real Quartz | evn | William Hill, 12:20am |
| Vol Royale | 9/2 | William Hill, 12:20am |
| Moorland Rambler | 11/1 | Bet365, 12:20am |
| Permis de Tuer | 28/1 | Bet365, 12:20am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:51 Newton Abbot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newton Abbot racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newton Abbot results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Newton Abbot racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Calvino tends to make the running while Vol Royale is also a front-runner; Heart Over Head, Lallygag, Real Quartz and Moorland Rambler are all prominent racers who will track the leaders.
How many horses in the field are stepping up in class?
Four horses are stepping up in class: Heart Over Head, Calvino, Vol Royale and Moorland Rambler.
Which horse has the best course record in the race?
Lallygag has won here with one success from four starts; Calvino has been placed once from one run while Moorland Rambler has been unplaced on his only visit.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Newton Abbot in this contest?
Paul Nicholls has a 28% strike rate at Newton Abbot from 984 runs and is responsible for both Lallygag and Calvino.
Which runner is proven on soft ground?
Real Quartz has one win from one run on soft with one placed effort; Heart Over Head is placed once from one run on soft while Vol Royale is one from three with one placed.
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