What is Freddie Keighley's strike rate?

Freddie Keighley has won 33 of 257 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.8% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which yard does Freddie Keighley ride most for?

Martin Keighley, with 143 rides since 2022 — 56% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (12.6%).

Is Freddie Keighley in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 13 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Freddie Keighley's Fair A/E?

0.92, from 257 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Freddie Keighley

257 rides in the last 5 seasons · 125 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 98% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2024→)

from 1 Jan 2022

33–257

Wins / Runs

12.8%

Strike rate

n=257

79 (31%)

Placed

0.92

Fair A/E

n=257 · 0.79 incl. margin

−14.49

£1 level stake

n=257 at SP · −5.6%

£448k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.7%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 50 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 13% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.92). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (37 rides). Rides mostly for Martin Keighley — 56% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 257 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Nov Martin Keighley: 12.6% from 143 LTO winners: 18.9% Claiming: 12.9%

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 18.9% (n=37, Fair A/E 0.80). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 10.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.81 and −30.28 to a £1 stake over 125 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Martin Keighley supplies 56% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (12.6%, A/E 0.92). The rider also reads well in Class 4 (16.3%, n=86). The record reads poorly in Class 3 — 7.1% over 42 rides, 5.7pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fires Oct–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

10.4%−2.4

n=125 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −30.28

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

18.9%+6.1

n=37 · A/E 0.80 · £1 +2.17

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

10.7%−2.1

n=56 · A/E 1.09 · £1 +0.62

When favourite

26.9%

n=26 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −11.49

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

12.9%+0.1

n=233 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −24.49

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.7%−9.1

n=27 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Paul Nicholls 18.9% vs 12.8% · n=53

With horses switching code 6.3% vs 12.8% · n=32

On last-time-out winners 18.9% vs 12.8% · n=37

In Class 3 7.1% vs 12.8% · n=42

In Class 4 16.3% vs 12.8% · n=86

On first rides for the horse 10.4% vs 12.8% · n=125

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 164 22 13.4% −4.49

Chase 58 7 12.1% −12.00

NH Flat 29 4 13.8% +8.00

Flat 6 0 0% −6.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 131 18 13.7% −13.99

Good to Soft 69 8 11.6% +28.38

Soft 27 3 11.1% −15.38

Heavy 17 2 11.8% −9.12

Good to Firm 13 2 15.4% −4.38

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Worcester 22 2 9.1% +10.50

Cheltenham 17 1 5.9% +6.00

Uttoxeter 17 3 17.6% −3.12

Newton Abbot 14 0 0% −14.00

Chepstow 12 1 8.3% −10.38

Warwick 11 1 9.1% −4.00

Fontwell 11 4 36.4% +9.00

Taunton 11 3 27.3% +5.50

Southwell 11 1 9.1% +1.00

Lingfield 9 0 0% −9.00

Sedgefield 9 4 44.4% +12.10

Wincanton 9 3 33.3% +16.38

Hereford 8 0 0% −8.00

Sandown 7 0 0% −7.00

Market Rasen 7 0 0% −7.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 98 12 12.2% −14.87

Class 4 86 14 16.3% −8.62

Class 3 42 3 7.1% −19.88

Class 2 24 4 16.7% +35.88

Class 1 5 0 0% −5.00

Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 38 9 23.7% 0.76 −16.99

2nd–3rd fav 79 10 12.7% 0.69 −34.50

4th–6th fav 86 8 9.3% 1.05 −13.00

7th+ in betting 54 6 11.1% 3.21 +50.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83.8% completed · 222 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 58 79.3% 0 3 9 0 0

Hurdle 164 85.4% 6 2 16 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Pike Road (GB) 14 2 4 4 Oct 26

Continuance (GB) 12 1 6 16 Sep 26

Bobbi's Beauty (IRE) 7 2 2 9 Nov 26

Redbridge Rambler (IRE) 7 1 1 19 Aug 26

De Temps En Temps (IRE) 6 2 4 24 Oct 26

Turndlightsdownlow (IRE) 6 2 4 24 Oct 26

Duke Of Luckley (IRE) 6 3 3 1 Oct 26

Lord Virginia (FR) 5 0 1 9 Nov 26

Prairie Diamond (IRE) 5 1 3 9 Oct 26

Paddy De Pole (IRE) 4 2 3 11 Nov 26

Red Risk (FR) 4 1 1 7 Nov 26

Roadshow (IRE) 4 1 1 14 Sep 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 125 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 13

Only 13 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

6111302078111618178

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardMartin Keighley

56% of all rides
12.6% SR · A/E 0.92

TrainerRWSR£1

Martin Keighley 143 18 12.6% −5.47

Paul Nicholls 53 10 18.9% +2.36

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2024→

Archived wins

£448k

Prize money

2026

Best season · 17 wins

Queenie St Clair (IRE) — BetWright Herring Queen Series Final Mares' Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Kelso · Mar 2026 · Class 2

£51,440

Red Risk (FR) — Pertemps Network Group Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Musselburgh · Feb 2026 · Class 2

£15,609

Absolutely Doyen (IRE) — Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race) Wincanton · Dec 2025 · Class 2

£13,008

Notable horses

Duke Of Luckley (IRE) Pike Road (GB) Bobbi's Beauty (IRE) Turndlightsdownlow (IRE) De Temps En Temps (IRE) Brave Knight (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Mahler (GB) 26.1% · 6–23

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,898 runs since 2014 (790 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Court Cave (IRE) 26.7% · 4–15

Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,970 runs since 2008 (553 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.

Postponed (IRE) 6.7% · 1–15

Progeny have won 12.2% of 1,585 runs since 2021 (165 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9% from 455. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 15.7% from 140. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.4% from 202.

Yeats (IRE) 14.3% · 2–14

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,858 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Getaway (GER) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,040 runs since 2016 (1,034 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Passing Glance (GB) 14.3% · 1–7

Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,585 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 222. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 290. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 257 · newest first

The latest 50 of 257 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 4 April 2024 to 13 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

13 Nov 26 Cheltenham Outmaster (GB)T: Paul Nicholls AIS Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Stayers' Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 3 · 21f · Good · 18 ran 18th 5/1

11 Nov 26 Warwick Paddy De Pole (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls BNG Made Easy With Reverte Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 25f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 11/4

11 Nov 26 Warwick Jupiter Des Bordes (FR)T: Richard Hobson Newton LDP Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 4 ran 4th 5/2

11 Nov 26 Warwick Douglas Dc (IRE)T: Tony Carroll Dudley Peverill Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 19f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 28/1

10 Nov 26 Huntingdon Stopherandgo (IRE)T: David Flood PricedUp BOG From 10am Selling Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 4th 16/1

10 Nov 26 Huntingdon Escaria Ten (FR)T: Martin Keighley PricedUp Boosts And BOG Veterans' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 4 · 23.5f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 7/2

09 Nov 26 Stratford Lord Virginia (FR)T: Martin Keighley 31 Days Free Racing TV At racingtv.com/freetrial Novices' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran PU 5/2F

09 Nov 26 Stratford Bobbi's Beauty (IRE)T: Martin Keighley Get A Free Trial Of Racing TV Now Mares' Handicap Steeple Chase (Challenger Mares' Chase Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 21f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 1st 11/1

07 Nov 26 Aintree Red Risk (FR)T: Paul Nicholls Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 7th 22/1

06 Nov 26 Fontwell Dusky Spyglass (GB)T: Mike Murphy Weddings At Fontwell Park Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 17.5f · Good · 10 ran PU 150/1

05 Nov 26 Newbury Treasure Planet (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls OLBG Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 7th 5/2F

04 Nov 26 Chepstow Emailandy (IRE)T: Martin Keighley Lords Taverners Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23.5f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 14/1

01 Nov 26 Huntingdon Mc'flo (GB)T: Anthony Carson CopyBet Support Safer Gambling Claiming Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 14/1

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Springs A Girl (IRE)T: Martin Keighley Abode Estate Agents Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20f · Good · 15 ran 4th 18/1

29 Oct 26 Ffos Las Verney Fox (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Walters Group National Hunt Flat Race (Conditional & Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Heavy · 6 ran 1st 11/8F

29 Oct 26 Ffos Las Lucky Bailly (FR)T: Martin Keighley bettingsites.co.uk Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Heavy · 11 ran PU 14/1

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Lallygag (GER)T: Paul Nicholls Wollens Full Spectrum Law Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 6th 16/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Glance Of Glory (GB)T: Martin Keighley Spooktacular Family Day Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23f · Good · 9 ran F 100/30F

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Turndlightsdownlow (IRE)T: Martin Keighley William Hill Price Boosts 'chasing Excellence' Novices' Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 25f · Good To Soft · 6 ran UR 4/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Shannon Royale (IRE)T: Martin Keighley William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 25f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 11 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 5 runs (won 0) · to 11 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Freddie Keighley's strike rate?: Freddie Keighley has won 33 of 257 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.8% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Freddie Keighley ride most for?: Martin Keighley, with 143 rides since 2022 — 56% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (12.6%).
Is Freddie Keighley in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 13 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Freddie Keighley's Fair A/E?: 0.92, from 257 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.