1:55 Ayr
The Ladbrokes 'Get Racing Bet Builder Winnings Boosts' Doonside Cup Stakes is a Class 1 Listed event over 1m2f at Ayr on soft ground. A field of seven runners lines up, with the KTB numbers highlighting a tight contest at the top where four principals sit within a narrow band of Fit Scores from 67 down to 60. The pace shape points to a lone leader scenario with one horse likely to get an uncontested lead, which could prove difficult for those coming from further back to overcome in testing conditions.
How the race shapes up
With a high-confidence lone-leader pace shape in play, one front-runner is expected to bowl along with little pressure, setting a rhythm that could make this a test of stamina late on. Grey Cuban is the most natural front-runner in the line-up and looks set to take up that role, while Ecureuil Secret will track from a prominent position. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will hand an advantage that closers such as Sea Scout and High Stock can overcome on this soft surface, or whether those racing handily will hold the call.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ecureuil Secret KTB Selection67/100
Ecureuil Secret arrives with the highest KTB Fit Score of 67 and is the clear selection. A 5-year-old with form figures of 3/103-, he has shown useful Listed-level form and should be suited by the step back up in trip. Richard and Peter Fahey have a 14% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.42, while Oisin Orr takes the ride despite a 9% strike rate at the track. Usually prominent, he will be on or close to the pace which looks ideal given the shape, though he has only had one run on soft ground without placing. His draw in stall 6 is fair and he holds the best chance according to the numbers.
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2Sea Scout64/100
Sea Scout is rated just behind on a KTB Fit of 64. The 4-year-old has consistent recent form of 433-25 and has been competitive in similar company. Simon and Ed Crisford post a 17% strike rate at Ayr, and Tom Marquand is a positive booking with a 22% strike rate at the course. He races held up and produces his effort late, which could be a concern given the uncontested lead likely to be set, though he has placed once from two runs on soft ground. With no course form on record, his ability to close the gap on this going will be key.
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3Fast Tracker60/100
Fast Tracker carries a KTB Fit of 60 and has shown flashes of Listed ability. His form reads 051/73, including a win earlier in his career, though he has been below par on his last two starts. Ed Walker has a 14% strike rate at Ayr and James Doyle rides, boasting a 25% strike rate at the track. He has had two runs on soft without placing and will need to improve to figure. Racing from draw 7, he is likely to be prominent or mid-division in a race where the pace could be hard to reel in.
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4High Stock60/100
High Stock also scores 60 on KTB Fit and represents strong connections. The 4-year-old's form is 044-75, showing he can be competitive at this level but has not won for some time. Andrew Balding has a solid 17% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.14, and Oisin Murphy is aboard with an excellent 31% strike rate at the venue. Usually held up, he will be towards the rear which may not be ideal given the pace shape. He has no experience on soft ground, leaving his effectiveness on the going unproven.
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5Grey Cuban59/100
Grey Cuban has a KTB Fit of 59 and recent form of 3130-2, showing he can be competitive. He tends to make the running and looks set to get the uncontested lead according to the pace shape. Hugo Palmer's record at Ayr is modest but Saffie Osborne has a fair record at the track, and the horse has placed twice from four runs on soft.
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6Ice Max56/100
Ice Max is rated 56 on KTB Fit with form of 1-5364. A 5-year-old who has won twice from eight runs on soft ground, he is suited by the conditions. Usually held up, he will be towards the back in a race that could suit on-pacers. Karl Burke and Sam James have modest records at Ayr.
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7El Burhan53/100
El Burhan has the lowest KTB Fit at 53 and is stepping up in class. His form is 1-5438 and he tries first-time headgear. He has won here from one run at Ayr but has no experience on soft ground. George Boughey has a fair record at the track while Jack Callan has no previous Ayr rides.
KTB verdict
This Listed event looks set up for a prominent runner to take advantage of the lone-leader pace shape. Ecureuil Secret is the KTB Selection, rated highest on Fit and with a run style that should see him track the likely leader before delivering his challenge. He has the best blend of ability and suitability to the conditions among the principals. Sea Scout is the main danger if he can produce his late effort on the soft ground, while Fast Tracker and High Stock are capable but face questions over the pace and, in the latter's case, the surface. Grey Cuban could take some catching out in front if allowed an easy time.
KTB Selection Ecureuil Secret
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:04 UTC, 19 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Ecureuil Secret | 5/1 | 7Bet |
| Sea Scout | 13/2 | 7Bet |
| Fast Tracker | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| High Stock | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Grey Cuban | 10/1 | 7Bet |
| Ice Max | 3/1 | 7Bet |
| El Burhan | 16/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 1:55 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Who is most likely to set the pace?
Grey Cuban tends to make the running or race on the pace and the high-confidence lone-leader shape suggests he will get an uncontested lead.
Which horse has course form at Ayr?
Only El Burhan has a course record, having won here from one run.
Which runners are unproven on soft ground?
High Stock and El Burhan have no runs on soft ground.
Who has the best jockey record at Ayr?
Oisin Murphy has a 31% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.54 from 26 rides.
Which horse is stepping up in class?
El Burhan is stepping up in class.
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