What is Hugo Palmer's strike rate?

Hugo Palmer has won 300 of 2,492 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Hugo Palmer do best at?

Chester by strike rate: 50 wins from 293 runners (17.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Hugo Palmer?

Oisin Murphy, with 205 runners since 2022 — 8% of the total. That pairing has won 55 (26.8%).

Is Hugo Palmer in form?

In the last 14 days: 22 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 4.5%. That is below the baseline of 12% since 2022.

What is Hugo Palmer's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 2,476 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Hugo Palmer

2,492 runners in the last 5 seasons · 313 individual horses

As at 26 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 4.6% of 592 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 26 Oct 2026.

Last runner 2 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)

from 1 Jan 2022

300–2,492

Wins / Runs

12%

Strike rate

n=2,492

778 (31%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=2,476 · 0.87 incl. margin

−506.50

£1 level stake

n=2,492 at SP · −20.3%

£6.78m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

10.2%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 500 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.01). New recruits from other yards win at 24% first time out (42 runs). The yard is quiet just now — 1 winner in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 2,492 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 26 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Feb Fresh horses: 12.3% 32.4% when favourite Oisin Murphy: 26.8% from 205 New recruits: 23.8% Sends off the favourite in 11% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Chester (17.1%, n=293), clear of the yard's 12% baseline. It is weakest at Chelmsford City (AW) (2.9% over 70 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 23.8% (n=42, Fair A/E 1.67), but a horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 7.6% (n=185, Fair A/E 0.81). Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 1 from 22 runners in the last 14 days (4.5%, 7.5pts below the 12% baseline). Oisin Murphy rides 8% of the entries and beats the yard's average (26.8% vs 12%, A/E 1.50) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 62 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket (Apr 2016, £283,550). The stable star of the record: Gifted Master (IRE) — 11 wins from 32 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

12.3%+0.3

n=309 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −28.22

New recruits · first run for the yard

23.8%+11.8

n=42 · A/E 1.67 · £1 +14.13

Debutants · first career start

12.1%+0.1

n=248 · A/E 1.13 · £1 +4.32

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.6%−4.4

n=185 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −45.68

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

9.4%−2.6

n=32 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −13.50

When favourite

32.4%

n=275 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −44.47

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.6%−3.4

n=348 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −121.78

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.6%−4.4

n=225 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −86.35

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Oisin Murphy 26.8% vs 12% · n=205

With new recruits 23.8% vs 12% · n=42

With Tom Marquand 1.7% vs 12% · n=60

At Chelmsford City (AW) 2.9% vs 12% · n=70

With David Egan 2.3% vs 12% · n=44

At Chester 17.1% vs 12% · n=293

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,486 299 12% −517.50

Hurdle 3 0 0% −3.00

NH Flat 3 1 33.3% +14.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 801 98 12.2% −161.19

Good 639 89 13.9% −38.56

Good to Firm 451 45 10% −180.75

Good to Soft 298 28 9.4% −91.85

Soft 219 30 13.7% −39.40

Heavy 82 9 11% +2.25

Firm 2 1 50% +3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chester 293 50 17.1% −6.14

Wolverhampton (AW) 229 34 14.8% −3.01

Newcastle (AW) 172 22 12.8% −27.74

Haydock 161 20 12.4% −8.63

Kempton (AW) 148 15 10.1% −54.87

Southwell (AW) 121 18 14.9% −29.57

Ascot 100 7 7% −37.42

Newmarket 89 12 13.5% +43.24

Doncaster 87 7 8% −16.00

York 84 6 7.1% +9.83

Goodwood 70 5 7.1% −29.63

Chelmsford City (AW) 70 2 2.9% −59.00

Newmarket 68 7 10.3% −26.55

Nottingham 67 5 7.5% −17.00

Newbury 60 5 8.3% −30.30

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 717 94 13.1% −137.51

Class 4 688 100 14.5% −74.03

Class 2 428 37 8.6% −118.78

Class 3 258 34 13.2% −66.83

Class 1 225 17 7.6% −86.35

Class 6 166 17 10.2% −20.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 308 99 32.1% 1.04 −42.38

2nd–3rd fav 633 111 17.5% 1.02 −78.62

4th–6th fav 823 69 8.4% 1.04 −155.50

7th+ in betting 728 21 2.9% 0.83 −230.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

How Impressive (IRE) 60 8 22 12 Aug 26

He's A Gentleman (IRE)from Tom Dascombe 53 6 23 2 Oct 26

Roman Dragon (GB)from Tom Dascombe 39 6 12 11 Sep 26

Nolton Cross (IRE) 38 6 13 2 Oct 26

Kindest Nation (IRE) 33 4 12 20 Oct 26

Box To Box (IRE)from Tom Dascombe 29 6 13 5 Oct 26

Balon D'or (GB)then Simon Dow 29 3 7 20 Sep 25

Zivaniya (GB) 28 3 6 18 Nov 25

Grey Cuban (GB) 27 7 13 10 Oct 26

Solent Gateway (IRE)from Tom Dascombe · then Donald McCain 25 2 8 10 Oct 24

Cheshire Dancer (IRE) 22 4 11 25 Jul 26

Victoria Falls (IRE) 22 3 12 19 Jun 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 313 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 11 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Tom Dascombe (8); 50 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard; 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

1 from 22 4.5% · −7.5pts vs baseline

Last 14 days4.5%

5-season base12%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

2717121412141211118710

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderOisin Murphy

8% of all rides
26.8% SR · A/E 1.50

RiderRWSR£1

Oisin Murphy 205 55 26.8% +39.38

Harry Davies 195 19 9.7% −49.67

Jason Hart 185 29 15.7% −35.96

David Probert 164 20 12.2% +55.39

Ross Coakley 153 25 16.3% +8.99

James Doyle 87 8 9.2% −60.93

Ben Curtis 80 11 13.8% −21.67

Cieren Fallon 73 6 8.2% −45.29

Tom Marquand 60 1 1.7% −55.67

Joe Leavy 60 7 11.7% +6.12

Andrew Mullen 55 6 10.9% +22.25

Paul Mulrennan 46 7 15.2% −0.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→

793

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£16.1m

Prize money

2018

Best season · 89 wins

Galileo Gold (GB) — Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Newmarket · Apr 2016 · Group 1

£283,550

Gifted Master (IRE) — 500,000 Tattersalls Millions 2yo Trophy Newmarket · Oct 2015 · Class 2

£270,550

Covert Love (IRE) — Darley Irish Oaks (Fillies' Group 1) Curragh · Jul 2015 · Group 1

£232,000

Notable horses

Gifted Master (IRE) How Impressive (IRE) Grey Cuban (GB) Home Of The Brave (IRE) He's A Gentleman (IRE) Nolton Cross (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dark Angel (IRE) 13.4% · 20–149

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,890 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Kodiac (GB) 12% · 15–125

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,554 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Starspangledbanner (AUS) 11.9% · 14–118

Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,162 runs since 2008 (661 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.5% from 1,191.

Mehmas (IRE) 14.3% · 16–112

Progeny have won 11.6% of 8,139 runs since 2008 (747 horses).

Havana Grey (GB) 13.6% · 15–110

Progeny have won 13.3% of 4,551 runs since 2008 (417 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.3% from 104. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10.2% from 411.

Heeraat (IRE) 14.8% · 9–61

Progeny have won 8% of 2,996 runs since 2008 (194 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,493 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,493 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 April 2011 to 24 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Ring Of Music (IRE)J: Callum Rodriguez AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Maiden Stakes (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 5/2

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Fans Favourite (GB)J: Cieren Fallon William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 18 ran 18th 14/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Phantom Watch (IRE)J: David Probert CopyBet Pay First Past The Post Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 12/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Mr Bling (IRE)J: David Probert CopyBet For Europa League Profit Boosts EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 8f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 18/1

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Stilton (GB)J: David Probert Try Unibet's Superboosts/british Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 7th 14/1

21 Oct 26 Newmarket Weekend Roar (IRE)J: James Doyle Copybet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Nursery Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Soft · 13 ran 13th 22/1

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Kindest Nation (IRE)J: Clifford Lee AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 6/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Donegal Rose (IRE)J: Mason Paetel bettingsites.co.uk Free Bets Offers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 66/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Wait Geordie (GB)J: Luke Catton bettingsites.co.uk Free Bets Offers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 18/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Enhancing (GB)J: Rowan Scott Download The At The Races App Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 22/1

19 Oct 26 Bath Nascent Star (GB)J: Charles Bishop Wiltshire And Bath Air Ambulance Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 6th 14/1

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Game Character (GB)J: David Probert British Stallion Studs Ebf Silver Tankard Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 8f · Heavy · 8 ran 3rd 9/4F

19 Oct 26 Pontefract High Hazard (GB)J: David Probert William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Soft · 11 ran 8th 18/1

17 Oct 26 Ascot Adaay Of Scarlett (IRE)J: James Doyle Qatar Racing British Champions Day Two-Year-Old Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)Class 2 · 6f · Good · 11 ran 7th 28/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Koodini (IRE)J: Joe Leavy Vantage Consulting Powered By Requidex Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Heavy · 9 ran 4th 22/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Trapped Goddess (GER)J: David Probert Watch Live On Racing TV EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Good · 7 ran 1st 6/4F

16 Oct 26 Redcar My Girl Dee Mo (IRE)J: David Probert Join Racing TV Now British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 4/6F

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Zirconic (GB)J: Rossa Ryan Juddmonte EBF Novice Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 9th 40/1

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Trinculo (GB)J: David Probert Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 8.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 10/1

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Lucky Camino (IRE)J: David Probert Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 10f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 8th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Hugo Palmer's strike rate?: Hugo Palmer has won 300 of 2,492 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Hugo Palmer do best at?: Chester by strike rate: 50 wins from 293 runners (17.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Hugo Palmer?: Oisin Murphy, with 205 runners since 2022 — 8% of the total. That pairing has won 55 (26.8%).
Is Hugo Palmer in form?: In the last 14 days: 22 runners, 1 winner, a strike rate of 4.5%. That is below the baseline of 12% since 2022.
What is Hugo Palmer's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 2,476 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.