2:13 Stratford
This Class 4 novices' handicap steeplechase at Stratford over 2m6f125y on good ground brings together a small but competitive field of four. The KTB Fit Scores identify Senator as the clear top pick on 65, with Ignore The Door close behind on 63 and Kilworth on 56, while Depalma trails on 43. All four are rated in the 102-111 OR bracket and arrive with recent placed form, yet the race lacks any obvious front-runner and looks set to be decided by tactical positioning and stamina.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and is expected to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy will pay dividends. Senator is the only one with prominent run-style and should therefore enjoy an advantageous position on or close to the pace. The other three all prefer to be held up, raising the key question of whether they can produce their efforts at the right time in a race that may not truly test stamina until late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Senator KTB Selection65/100
Senator is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order after a string of placed efforts, including a solid second last time out. This will be his first try beyond 2m4f and the step up in trip therefore asks a fresh question. Jamie Snowden has a 19% strike rate at Stratford from 154 runs with an A/E of 0.9, while Gavin Sheehan is 18% from 245 rides here with an A/E of 0.97. The pair combine with a 23% strike rate overall. Senator has been placed on both his starts on good ground without winning, and his prominent run-style should be ideal in a race that lacks an obvious leader.
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2Ignore The Door63/100
Ignore The Door is a smart performer who showed useful form when winning over this trip on good ground last year. Dropping back from 3m should suit, and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition after a break. Harry Derham has a 24% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E of 0.76 from 17 runs, while Paul O'Brien is operating at a strong 25% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.66 from 56 rides. The combination has a 23% strike rate overall. Ignore The Door has won one and been placed once from two starts on good ground and is expected to come from off the pace in a steadily-run race.
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3Kilworth56/100
Kilworth is a smart performer who showed strong form when winning a 2m7f handicap at this track last season before a solid third at Cheltenham. He drops back in trip today having failed to complete on his only previous try at this distance. Emma Lavelle has a 19% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E of 1.13 from 217 runs, though Jonathan Burke is less effective here at 10% from 115 rides. The pair combine with a 16% strike rate overall. Kilworth has won one and been placed once from two starts on good ground, yet his held-up run-style means he will need the race to fall right in a tactical contest.
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4Depalma43/100
Depalma is a useful performer who arrives in solid form with two wins from his last five starts. He drops back from 3m2f to a trip he has never tried, which asks a fresh question, while this is also his first run at Stratford. Dan Skelton has a 22% strike rate here from 371 runs with an A/E of 0.87, though Tristan Durrell is operating at a more modest 9% from 23 rides. Depalma drops in class and will be held up.
KTB verdict
Senator is the KTB Selection. He arrives in excellent order after consistent placed form, has the best Fit Score in the race, and his prominent run-style looks a major asset in a steadily-run affair that lacks a leader. The step up in trip is the only unknown, but his overall profile and the solid Stratford records of trainer and jockey make him the one to beat. Ignore The Door is the obvious danger, with his previous success over the trip on good ground and the first-time headgear offering hope, while Kilworth cannot be dismissed on the back of his course success last season despite the drop in trip.
KTB Selection Senator
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 17 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Senator | 7/4 | LiveScore Bet |
| Ignore The Door | 11/2 | 7Bet |
| Kilworth | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Depalma | 9/2 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 2:13 Stratford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Stratford racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Stratford results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Stratford racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Senator the KTB Selection?
Senator tops the KTB Fit ranking on 65, arrives in excellent order after a string of placed efforts including a solid second last time, and his prominent run-style is well suited to a race that lacks a leader.
How does the lack of pace affect the race?
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy should pay. Senator is the only prominent runner while the other three are held-up types.
What is the significance of the first-time headgear on Ignore The Door?
The first-time headgear is an interesting addition for Ignore The Door after a break, as noted in the KTB Intelligence for this smart performer who won over the trip on good ground last year.
Can Kilworth handle the drop back in trip?
Kilworth drops back in trip today having failed to complete on his only previous try at this distance, despite his strong form when winning over 2m7f at Stratford last season.
What are the trainer and jockey records at Stratford for the top three runners?
Jamie Snowden is 19% at Stratford with A/E 0.9; Harry Derham is 24% with A/E 0.76; Emma Lavelle is 19% with A/E 1.13. Gavin Sheehan is 18% with A/E 0.97, Paul O'Brien 25% with A/E 1.66, and Jonathan Burke 10% with A/E 0.55.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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