2:45 Punchestown
The William Hill Challenge Series Hurdle at Punchestown brings together a small but high-quality field of five for this 2m7f95y contest on good ground. All bar one of the runners are rated in the 130s or above, with official ratings ranging from 126 to 145, and the KTB Fit Scores reflect a competitive but not overwhelmingly deep race, headed by the selection on 62. Recent form is mixed across the group, with several horses stepping up markedly in trip while others return to a venue where they have previously shown their best.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy is likely to pay. With three of the five runners usually held up and producing their effort late, the race could develop into a sprint for the line from the home turn. Senecia is the only one who races prominently and could therefore find himself in the lead or close to it by default. The key question is whether that prominent run-style will prove an advantage or a burden in a race where the pace is expected to be modest.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sandor Clegane KTB Selection62/100
Sandor Clegane is a high-class performer who has won three times at this track from six runs and arrives in solid form after a recent third. He has a win on good ground but has failed to score in two tries at this trip. The nine-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Paul Nolan strikes at 8% here from a big sample of 616 runs while jockey Ross Berry is still seeking a first course winner from 11 rides. His course record of three wins from six starts marks him out as the one to beat at Punchestown.
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2Samui54/100
Samui is a high-class performer with a solid placed effort here on his third run at the track. He has won three times on good ground from eight starts and his recent form includes a second-place finish. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Stepping up markedly in trip today asks a fresh question of him while the yard and jockey both hold established records at Punchestown, with Gordon Elliott operating at 13% and Jack Kennedy at 15%. His placed effort on this course adds to his claims in a race where being handy could be important.
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3Senecia50/100
Senecia is a high-class performer on his day with strong ratings and race history behind him. He has been placed at this track without winning and is only 1 from 7 on good ground, while the yard has failed to land a winner from 21 runs here. The nine-year-old usually races handily, on or close to the lead, which could see him in front in a race that lacks an obvious leader. He steps up in trip today having shown little at this distance before. Jockey Phillip Enright has a 5% strike rate at Punchestown from 547 rides.
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4Buddy One50/100
Buddy One is high-class on his day but has been largely out of form for some time and his recent efforts remain modest. He steps up in trip here having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at this distance, and his record on good ground is only fair. The yard's 1% strike-rate at Punchestown from 95 runs adds little encouragement.
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5Intense Approach50/100
Intense Approach is a high-class performer on his day with a solid record on good ground that includes five wins from 14 starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Punchestown.
KTB verdict
Sandor Clegane stands out as the KTB Selection. A high-class performer with three wins from six runs at Punchestown, he arrives in solid form after a recent third and boasts a win on good ground. His proven course record and ability to produce a late effort in a steadily-run race make him the one to beat. Samui represents the chief danger, with his placed effort at the track, good-ground wins and the powerful Elliott-Kennedy combination. Senecia could make the running and has high-class form on his day, though his yard's poor record here and lack of previous success at the trip count against him.
KTB Selection Sandor Clegane
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 13 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Sandor Clegane | 5/1 | BetTom |
| Samui | 2/1 | BetTom |
| Senecia | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Buddy One | 15/8 | Bet365 |
| Intense Approach | 11/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Punchestown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Punchestown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Punchestown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Punchestown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Punchestown?
Sandor Clegane, who has won three times from six runs at the track.
How many of the runners are stepping up markedly in trip?
Two: Samui and Intense Approach are both tackling this distance for the first time, while Senecia steps up having shown little at the trip before.
Who is likely to set the pace or race prominently?
Senecia is the only prominent runner in a field that otherwise consists of held-up types, in a race that lacks an obvious leader.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Punchestown among those represented?
Gordon Elliott with a 13% strike rate from 1807 runs.
What is the ground record of the selection?
Sandor Clegane has 1 win from 3 starts on good ground.
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