Conor Smithers
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 70 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 6% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.01).
It is weakest at Punchestown (2.1% over 47 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.2% (n=82, Fair A/E 0.29). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 3.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −103.33 to a £1 stake over 180 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Mrs John Harrington supplies 24% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (4.9%, A/E 0.57). The rider also reads well on Good going (9.5%, n=116) and off a 15-30-day break (9.1%, n=110). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 0% over 53 rides, 5.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.67 across 120 rides (3.3% strike, −76.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.6% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2020→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 348 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 348 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 July 2020 to 4 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
KTB’s figures
the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 23 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · to 23 Oct 2026.
Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.
Quick answers
- What is Conor Smithers's strike rate?
- Conor Smithers has won 19 of 339 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 5.6% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Conor Smithers do best at?
- Punchestown by strike rate: 1 wins from 47 rides (2.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Conor Smithers ride most for?
- Mrs John Harrington, with 82 rides since 2022 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (4.9%).
- Is Conor Smithers in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 10 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Conor Smithers's Fair A/E?
- 1.01, from 339 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.