2:45 Tramore
The 2:45 at Tramore is an Ardmore Handicap Hurdle over 2m on yielding ground, featuring a compact field of nine where the KTB Fit scores point to a clear top horse in Tingarran Express on 69. The principals cluster between 50 and 54, suggesting a race where class and course familiarity could prove decisive rather than any standout recent form. With the pace shape indicating a lone leader likely to enjoy an uncontested advantage, the ability to close effectively from off the pace will be at a premium on this surface and trip.
How the race shapes up
The pace map is dominated by a lone front-runner with high confidence, pointing to an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to bridge in the latter stages. Polly Poppins is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and should be allowed to dictate terms from the outset. Most of the principals, including the selection Tingarran Express, Lanzhou and Goodmancon, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late, while Fenian Maxios settles in mid-division. The key question is whether any of the patient runners can reel in the leader on yielding ground when that rival has first run and an uncontested advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tingarran Express KTB Selection69/100
Tingarran Express arrives as a useful performer boasting a solid career record and previous success over this trip. He possesses course experience at Tramore, where he has won once from six starts, and his trainer holds a 12% strike rate from 33 runs at the track. On yielding ground he has been competitive without winning, placing three times from five starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited to a race likely to be run with an uncontested leader. His recent form of 4-6293 shows consistency at this level, and with an official rating of 100 the nine-year-old has the class to take advantage of the shape. The jockey's record at the track is modest, yet the overall profile aligns strongly with conditions.
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2Lanzhou54/100
Lanzhou is a useful performer who has shown his best form at this track, finishing second here on his penultimate start. He drops back to 2m today having been placed at the trip without winning, though the small overall sample makes it hard to be certain about his ideal distance. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate from 58 runs at Tramore is a negative, despite the jockey posting a solid 12% strike rate and 1.12 A/E from 66 rides at the venue. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to bridge the gap to a clear leader on ground on which he remains unproven. Recent form of 09-072 offers some encouragement from his latest effort, and at an official rating of 92 he remains competitive on his best days at Tramore.
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3Fenian Maxios53/100
Fenian Maxios is a useful performer who has shown some ability in five starts. He drops back to 2m today having been placed at the trip without winning last time, though the shorter distance now asks a fresh question. The trainer has no recorded runs at Tramore while the jockey also has no course record to call on, posting a 5% strike rate and 0.45 A/E from 105 rides at the track. Typically settling in midfield, he will be positioned closer to the pace than most of his main rivals in a race with a clear leader. With only one run on yielding ground yielding no win or place, there are several unknowns for the five-year-old rated 97. His recent form of 90208- suggests he retains ability but needs to prove himself under these conditions.
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4Goodmancon50/100
Goodmancon is a useful performer who has been a regular at Tramore without winning, recording four placed efforts from eight runs here. He drops back to 2m today after a recent try over further and has placed at this trip before though without success. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 22 runs at the track, and the horse is 0-3 on yielding ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be among those trying to close on a leader with an uncontested advantage. Recent form of 85F349 shows glimpses of form but also inconsistency, and with an official rating of 99 the six-year-old needs everything to fall right on this surface at Tramore.
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5Tasmanian Girl49/100
Tasmanian Girl is a fair performer who has been generally out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. She has placed once on yielding ground and drops back to a trip she has won at before, though her recent efforts suggest she is vulnerable despite the trainer's solid 12% strike-rate at Tramore from a big sample.
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6Million Dollar Man45/100
Million Dollar Man is a fair performer who has struggled since finishing sixth on debut, with three poor efforts since including a pulled-up run. He drops back to 2m today having failed to make an impact at the trip in two previous attempts, though the trainer has a 12% strike rate from 184 runs at Tramore.
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7Ahellofaman43/100
Ahellofaman is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, finishing third on his most recent start. He has no experience of yielding ground and makes his first appearance at Tramore, leaving both as unknowns, while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track from a large sample adds a note of caution.
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8Breeze Of Tobruk43/100
Breeze Of Tobruk is a fair maiden who has shown little in four runs to date, finishing well beaten on all three completed starts. He has been tried over today's trip twice without success and remains lightly raced on ground that is too soft a sample to judge, with the trainer having no recorded runners at Tramore.
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9Polly Poppins36/100
Polly Poppins is a fair mare who has shown consistent placed form at Tramore, including a second and a third here over this trip. She has never won on yielding ground from five attempts and remains winless from 18 career starts, while the trainer has a 0% strike rate from 14 runs at the track.
KTB verdict
Tingarran Express stands out as the KTB Selection with a clear Fit score advantage and a profile that fits the race well. A useful performer with a win at this trip and course success at Tramore, he has the ability to close effectively in a contest with a lone leader likely to enjoy an easy time upfront. His placed efforts on yielding ground further strengthen the case, and the trainer's record at the venue adds confidence. The main dangers are Lanzhou, who has shown his best at this track, and Goodmancon, who is a regular placer here despite the trainer's poor strike rate. Fenian Maxios cannot be entirely dismissed if the drop back to 2m suits, but the selection looks to hold the strongest hand.
KTB Selection Tingarran Express
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Tramore. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Tramore racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Tramore results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited to an uncontested lead in the pace shape?
Polly Poppins, as the only front-runner, is set to make the running while most principals are held up or race in mid-division.
How has Tingarran Express performed at Tramore and on yielding ground?
He has won once from six runs at Tramore and has placed three times from five starts on yielding ground without winning.
What are the trainer strike rates at Tramore for the connections of the top four horses?
Tingarran Express: 12%; Lanzhou: 9%; Fenian Maxios: 0%; Goodmancon: 0%.
Which principals are held up in running?
Tingarran Express, Lanzhou and Goodmancon are all usually held up, while Fenian Maxios typically settles in midfield.
Has Lanzhou won at this trip or on this ground?
He has been placed at 2m without winning and has no runs on yielding ground.
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