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Trainer profile

J P Flavin

354 runners in the last 5 seasons · 37 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 10 days ago 96% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)
from 1 Jan 2022
21–354
Wins / Runs
5.9%
Strike rate
n=354
67 (19%)
Placed
0.96
Fair A/E
n=354 · 0.76 incl. margin
−107.17
£1 level stake
n=354 at SP · −30.3%
£346k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
2.9%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 70 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96).

Deterministic profile computed from 354 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Danny Mullins: 5% from 60
The read

The record is strongest at Wexford (13.9%, n=36) and Tramore (10.3%, n=58) — all clear of the yard's 5.9% baseline. The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.77 and −84.00 to a £1 stake over 137 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Danny Mullins rides 17% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5%, A/E 0.80). The yard also reads well in Chase races (10.8%, n=102) and on Good going (9.7%, n=72). The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 1.9% over 53 runners, 4pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Bar One Racing 'Guaranteed Overnight Prices' Porterstown Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse (Dec 2023, £26,550). The stable star of the record: Clarens (IRE) — 7 wins from 28 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.4%−2.5
n=87 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −70.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.9
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.9
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
5%−0.9
n=20 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −15.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
15.4%+9.5
n=13 · A/E 2.62 · £1 +4.50
When favourite
13.3%
n=15 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −8.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.4%−1.5
n=137 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −84.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.7%+1.8
n=13 · A/E 1.35 · £1 +10.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Darragh O'Keeffe 17.1% vs 5.9% · n=41
At Wexford 13.9% vs 5.9% · n=36
In Chase races 10.8% vs 5.9% · n=102
At Tramore 10.3% vs 5.9% · n=58
On Good going 9.7% vs 5.9% · n=72
On Heavy going 1.9% vs 5.9% · n=53
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 233 10 4.3% −74.75
Chase 102 11 10.8% −13.42
Flat 13 0 0% −13.00
NH Flat 6 0 0% −6.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 157 8 5.1% −82.25
Good to Soft 72 5 6.9% −13.67
Good 72 7 9.7% +38.50
Heavy 53 1 1.9% −49.75

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Tramore 58 6 10.3% −28.92
Wexford 36 5 13.9% +11.00
Cork 24 1 4.2% −20.75
Fairyhouse 24 1 4.2% −1.00
Navan 23 1 4.3% −13.00
Gowran Park 20 2 10% −12.00
Punchestown 17 0 0% −17.00
Tipperary 16 0 0% −16.00
Limerick 16 0 0% −16.00
Clonmel 15 0 0% −15.00
Down Royal 14 2 14.3% +15.50
Roscommon 12 1 8.3% +55.00
Killarney 12 1 8.3% +7.00
Naas 11 0 0% −11.00
Kilbeggan 10 0 0% −10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 13 1 7.7% +10.00
Class 3 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 18 2 11.1% 0.59 −11.75
2nd–3rd fav 51 7 13.7% 0.99 −14.92
4th–6th fav 75 7 9.3% 1.32 −17.50
7th+ in betting 210 5 2.4% 0.81 −63.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
80.6% completed · 335 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 102 71.6% 5 1 23 0 0
Hurdle 233 84.5% 4 1 31 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Duty Bound (GB)from Andrew Balding 23 3 4 8 Aug 26
Aclass (IRE) 21 1 8 30 May 26
Midnight Our Fred (IRE) 21 2 9 25 May 26
Clarens (IRE) 21 4 7 4 Jul 25
Street Value (IRE)from P T Flavin 21 2 3 21 Apr 25
Bearwithmenow (IRE)from Garrett James Power 21 1 4 25 Jan 25
Smitty Bacall (IRE)from J R Barry 20 2 6 5 Aug 25
Party Pack (IRE) 18 0 1 3 Jul 26
Hit The Frame (GB) 16 1 2 11 Sep 26
Ladyeze Man (IRE) 16 0 2 15 Jan 26
Lakomet Of Saints (FR)from J A Stack 15 0 0 2 Jul 24
Reve Inoui (IRE) 12 0 0 11 Sep 26
All 37 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 37 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from P T Flavin (4); 24 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 34 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
70046713641093
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDanny Mullins
17% of all rides
5% SR · A/E 0.80
RiderRWSR£1
Danny Mullins 60 3 5% −30.75
Darragh O'Keeffe 41 7 17.1% +75.83
Jordan Canavan 33 1 3% −28.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→
28
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£403k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 9 wins
Street Value (IRE) — Bar One Racing 'Guaranteed Overnight Prices' Porterstown Handicap Chase (Listed) Fairyhouse · Dec 2023 · Listed
£26,550
Duty Bound (GB) — KPH Construction 110 Series Final Handicap Hurdle Killarney · Jul 2025
£14,750
Clarens (IRE) — Poolcourt Engineering Handicap Chase Wexford · Jul 2025
£12,980
Notable horses
Clarens (IRE) Street Value (IRE) Duty Bound (GB) Midnight Our Fred (IRE) Smitty Bacall (IRE) Ag Obair Go Crua (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Well Chosen (GB) 4.7% · 2–43
Progeny have won 12.5% of 1,916 runs since 2008 (155 horses).
Finsceal Fior (IRE) 8.7% · 2–23
Progeny have won 7.6% of 564 runs since 2008 (47 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 10.6% from 132. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 11.4% from 140.
Kingman (GB) 13% · 3–23
Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,474 runs since 2008 (775 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11.1% from 959. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9.1% from 121.
Dream Ahead (USA) 19% · 4–21
Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,679 runs since 2008 (528 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6% from 184.
Flemensfirth (USA) 4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,274 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).
Notnowcato (GB) 4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 9.8% of 2,368 runs since 2008 (226 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 14.5% from 386. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.6% from 349.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 391 · newest first

The latest 50 of 391 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 January 2021 to 12 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Watercraft (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap (Div I)7.5f · Soft · 14 ran 11th 50/1
08 Oct 26 Tramore (IRE) Ray Gun (USA)J: Phillip Enright Tramore Racecourse On Instagram Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Yielding · 7 ran 2nd 6/1
08 Oct 26 Tramore (IRE) Lanzhou (FR)J: Daniel King Ardmore Handicap Hurdle16f · Yielding · 9 ran 1st 9/4F
04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Urbs Intacta Manet (IRE)J: Jordan Canavan Killarney Races Handicap Steeplechase23.5f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 3rd 11/1
28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Colesberg (IRE)J: Jordan Canavan Gary's Gardening Services Handicap Hurdle15.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 4th 6/1
19 Sep 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Watercraft (IRE)J: Declan McDonogh BOYLE Sports Home Of Early Payout Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 16 ran 11th 33/1
11 Sep 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Hit The Frame (GB)J: Eoghan Finegan Lodge At Ashford Castle Handicap Steeplechase23f · Yielding · 16 ran UR 16/1
11 Sep 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Reve Inoui (IRE)J: Jordan Canavan Lodge At Ashford Castle Handicap Steeplechase23f · Yielding · 16 ran 5th 20/1
28 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Urbs Intacta Manet (IRE)J: Daniel King Racing Again October 25th & 26th Handicap Steeplechase25f · Yielding · 13 ran 8th 12/1
28 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Ray Gun (USA)J: Daniel King Treo Eile Handicap Hurdle (Div I)20.5f · Good · 14 ran 9th 10/1
16 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Colesberg (IRE)J: Jordan Canavan Frank Gillane Memorial Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 3rd 20/1
16 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Lanzhou (FR)J: Daniel King Frank Gillane Memorial Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 2nd 4/1
14 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Ray Gun (USA)J: Daniel King Comeragh Veterinary Kilmackthomas Handicap Hurdle21f · Good · 10 ran 6th 25/1
13 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Lanzhou (FR)J: Shane Fitzgerald Bluegrass Horse Feeds Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good · 16 ran 7th 14/1
10 Aug 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Urbs Intacta Manet (IRE)J: Daniel King Tim Kelly Group Handicap Hurdle22.5f · Good · 16 ran 8th 80/1
08 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Duty Bound (GB)J: Donagh Meyler Poolcourt Engineering Handicap Steeplechase25f · Good · 7 ran PU 11/1
16 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Ray Gun (USA)J: Jordan Canavan Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (Div II)20.5f · Good · 14 ran 9th 100/1
03 Jul 26 Wexford Party Pack (IRE)J: Alan O'Sullivan Save The Date 7th August Ladies Day Handicap Chase (0-100)19.5f · Good · 13 ran 12th 7/1
03 Jul 26 Wexford Ellis Brittle (IRE)J: Jordan Canavan Shamrock Enterprises Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 14 ran 10th 100/1
30 Jun 26 Wexford Duty Bound (GB)J: Jordan Canavan Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase23f · Good · 12 ran 5th 11/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is J P Flavin's strike rate?
J P Flavin has won 21 of 354 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5.9% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does J P Flavin do best at?
Wexford by strike rate: 5 wins from 36 runners (13.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for J P Flavin?
Danny Mullins, with 60 runners since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (5%).
Is J P Flavin in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is J P Flavin's Fair A/E?
0.96, from 354 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).