3:00 Ffos Las
A Class 5 handicap hurdle over 1m7f182y at Ffos Las on good ground brings together a compact field of seven. The KTB Fit Scores identify a clear top four, headed by Boyles Hill on 65, with Kates Choice, Dalcassian Girl and Lully du Houx completing the principals. Several runners are dropping in class while others return from breaks or sport new headgear, and the overall picture points to a competitive but readable renewal.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as muddling and tactical with medium confidence and no obvious front-runner. Several principals and field runners prefer to race prominently or in midfield, which should see the race develop with a strong emphasis on those able to secure a handy position. Held-up types will need to time their efforts carefully in what is likely to become a test of positioning and timing rather than sustained speed. The key question is which horse can best exploit the tactical nature and deliver its effort at the right moment on this sharp track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Boyles Hill KTB Selection65/100
Boyles Hill arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 65 and is the clear selection. A useful performer, he has won once from four starts at this track and holds a solid official rating of 100. He drops back in trip today having been placed three times from four starts at this distance without winning, while he also has a win and three places from five runs on good ground. The trainer records a 9% strike rate here from 23 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, while the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the course from 535 rides, above his rate at other tracks. Usually racing prominently on or close to the lead, his run-style looks ideally suited to the muddling, tactical pace shape expected. Dropping in class adds to his appeal.
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2Kates Choice60/100
Kates Choice is rated at a KTB Fit Score of 60. She is a useful performer who won over this course and distance on good ground in the summer and has a solid recent record when completing. She drops back in trip from a longer run last time but has been beaten in all six starts at this exact distance. The trainer's 4% strike rate at Ffos Las is in line with their record elsewhere while the jockey's 8% at the track matches his overall figure. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will be looking to come from off the pace in a race that may not be run at a strong gallop. Her course-and-distance success remains a strong positive.
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3Dalcassian Girl55/100
Dalcassian Girl carries a KTB Fit Score of 55. A fair performer, she showed her best form when second on her final start last season. She drops back from 2m5f to a trip she has tried once without success, while the lightly-raced profile means her effectiveness on good ground remains unknown. The trainer holds a 17% strike rate at Ffos Las from six runs and the jockey is operating at a 12% strike rate here from 33 rides, in line with his record elsewhere. Usually racing prominently on or close to the lead, her run-style should see her well placed in a muddling tactical affair. Dropping in class is another factor in her favour.
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4Lully du Houx52/100
Lully du Houx is next on a KTB Fit Score of 52. A useful performer, he has failed to build on a promising debut and was well held on return last time. He has run three times at this trip without success and the yard has a 0% strike rate from 17 runs at Ffos Las. Half-brother to Epson Du Houx who has recorded 4 wins from 22 runs, with the dam having had two other runners of which one was a winner. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right in a tactical contest. Dropping in class may help him show more.
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5Berkshire Smudge51/100
Berkshire Smudge is rated at a KTB Fit Score of 51. A useful performer who won once from four starts at this track, he has been placed on good ground but is yet to win at this trip in three attempts. The trainer's 21% strike rate here from 505 runs is above their record elsewhere while the jockey has no recorded rides at the course. Usually racing prominently, he should be involved early.
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6Whatsgoingonmarvin48/100
Whatsgoingonmarvin has a KTB Fit Score of 48. A useful performer who has run to form on most starts this year and finished a clear second over course and distance on his only visit here, he drops back in trip from 2m5f with first-time headgear now fitted. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track that sit in line with their overall figures. Usually racing prominently, he should be to the fore.
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7Department of War40/100
Department of War is rated at a KTB Fit Score of 40. A useful performer on his day, his recent form of 30P0/P makes for grim reading and he has been off since March. He drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in four previous tries at this distance. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 6% strike rate here at Ffos Las which is in line with their figures elsewhere. He typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Boyles Hill stands out at the head of the KTB Fit Scores and is taken as the selection. His record at the track, proven ability on good ground and advantageous prominent run-style in a muddling tactical race all point in his favour, as does the drop in class. Kates Choice, with her course-and-distance success, is the most obvious danger, while Dalcassian Girl and Lully du Houx are capable of playing leading roles if the race develops to suit. The remainder of the field all have points in their favour but look held on the numbers.
KTB Selection Boyles Hill
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 29 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Boyles Hill | 13/8 | BetTom, 12:03am |
| Kates Choice | 14/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Dalcassian Girl | 3/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Lully du Houx | 6/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Berkshire Smudge | 9/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Whatsgoingonmarvin | 7/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Department of War | 50/1 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:00 Ffos Las. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ffos Las racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ffos Las results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ffos Las racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-and-distance winning form on good ground?
Kates Choice won over this course and distance on good ground in the summer.
How many horses are dropping in class?
Four horses are dropping in class: Boyles Hill, Dalcassian Girl, Lully du Houx and Whatsgoingonmarvin, plus Department of War.
Who is the only horse wearing first-time headgear?
Whatsgoingonmarvin is fitted with first-time headgear.
Which runner has the strongest trainer strike rate at Ffos Las?
Rebecca Curtis has a 21% strike rate at Ffos Las from 505 runs with Berkshire Smudge.
Which horse has been off the track the longest?
Department of War has been off since March.
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