4:20 Hexham
This Class 5 Go North One Man Series qualifier over 1m7f133y at Hexham on good ground brings together a compact field of seven where the KTB Fit Scores identify a clear top four. Achille des Rocs tops the ratings on 61 with a recent Sedgefield success behind him, while Mr Lincoln, Athair Mor and Langton Wold all sit on 55 or 52 and arrive in broadly similar form. The race looks competitive on paper yet the KTB numbers point to a horse dropping back in trip after a win as the one to focus on.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, as two habitual front-runners are present and expected to go hard early. Achille des Rocs and Treaty Boy are the types to make the running or race prominently, which sets up a test that could see the pace collapse late. That shape therefore poses the key question of whether the prominent pair can sustain their effort or if the race will fall into the laps of the hold-up performers drawn from the rear.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Achille des Rocs KTB Selection61/100
Achille des Rocs is a useful performer on his day and arrives in decent form after a win at Sedgefield last time. He drops back to a trip he has won over from two attempts while his record on good ground reads a solid two wins and two places from eight starts. The trainer holds a 14 percent strike rate at Hexham from 28 runs. Danny McMenamin takes the ride for a stable that has recorded an 8/34 (24%) strike-rate with an A/E of 1.08 and positive LSP of +£8.35. As a confirmed front-runner he is sure to set or help force the strong gallop that the pace map predicts, giving him every chance to dictate matters on a track where he has no previous form to overcome.
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2Mr Lincoln55/100
Mr Lincoln is a useful performer on his best days and arrives in reasonable nick having been placed three times from his last five starts. He has shown enough on good ground to be competitive at this level though he is yet to win on it, while the drop back in trip looks a fair shout given his placed effort at this distance. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard has a solid 12% strike-rate at Hexham. Sean Quinlan rides for a trainer-jockey combination that has managed only 2/30 (7%) with an A/E of 0.46 and negative LSP of -£11.43. His hold-up style should see him produced late off what is forecast to be a strong pace, a scenario that could suit if the leaders come back to him.
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3Athair Mor55/100
Athair Mor is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after four straight runner-up finishes. He has never run at Hexham before and is now dropping back in trip to one he has never tried, which asks a fresh question. The yard has an 11% strike rate here from 46 runs. Craig Nichol is on board for a partnership that has gone 26/208 (13%) with a healthy A/E of 1.34 and LSP of +£145.87. Usually held up, he will be another looking to come from off the strong pace, and while his placed effort on good ground offers encouragement the trip and venue both represent new territory.
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4Langton Wold52/100
Langton Wold is a useful performer who arrives in solid form with three consecutive placed efforts. He drops back in trip having been placed once at this distance without winning and has shown he handles good ground. Trainer has a respectable 16% strike rate at Hexham from a big sample. Oakley Brown claims 5 lb for a trainer-jockey axis that has recorded 1/20 (5%) with an A/E of 0.42 and LSP of -£15.00. His hold-up run-style means he too will be waiting for the pace to tell late on, and while he lacks a course record he brings consistent form into a race where the strong gallop could play to his strengths.
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5Jet Renegade46/100
Jet Renegade is useful on his day but has been below that level for a while and was pulled up on his latest start. He drops back in trip having looked stretched over longer distances recently while his record on good ground is modest with no wins or places from four runs. The yard has a 2% strike rate from 45 runs at Hexham.
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6Prospect House44/100
Prospect House is a fair performer with a solid recent record of 1-4331 and has won twice at today's trip from 11 attempts. He has shown good versatility on good ground with four wins from 22 starts. The yard holds a 10% strike rate at Hexham from 60 runs while the horse himself pulled up on his only previous visit to the track.
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7Treaty Boy43/100
Treaty Boy is a fair handicapper who has been consistent enough through the season without winning. He has shown some ability at Hexham though never managed to place here in three runs, and he is zero from six on good ground. He has won twice at today's trip from 11 attempts so the distance is no problem.
KTB verdict
Achille des Rocs stands out as the KTB Selection. He brings a recent Sedgefield win, a proven record at this trip and a solid two-from-eight on good ground, while the trainer's 14% strike-rate at Hexham adds further confidence. His front-running style should allow him to set the strong pace that is forecast, potentially giving him the edge if the race collapses late. The main dangers are Mr Lincoln, who looks well-placed to capitalise on the same pace shape in first-time headgear, and Athair Mor, whose string of runner-up finishes suggests he remains in excellent heart despite the new trip and venue.
KTB Selection Achille des Rocs
This is the narrative read of the 4:20 Hexham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hexham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hexham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Hexham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping back in trip after a recent win at Sedgefield?
Achille des Rocs, who has won over this distance from two previous attempts.
Why might the strong pace shape favour certain runners?
The presence of two habitual front-runners is expected to produce a strong gallop that could collapse late, favouring hold-up horses.
Which runner is fitted with first-time headgear?
Mr Lincoln, who has been placed three times from his last five starts.
How many runner-up finishes has Athair Mor recorded in his most recent starts?
Four straight runner-up finishes.
Which horse has won twice at today's trip from eleven attempts?
Both Prospect House and Treaty Boy.
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