5:05 Cartmel
This Class 5 handicap steeplechase over 2m5f34y at Cartmel on good to soft ground brings together an 11-runner field where recent consistency and course knowledge are likely to count for plenty. The KTB Fit Scores point to a competitive but not especially deep race, with Kinbara Firstdraft heading the numbers on 61 and the next four principals clustered between 55 and 50. Several runners have shown fair form without winning of late, while others bring questions of trip, ground or headgear.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners in the line-up, most notably Aill Dubh and Halfway House Lad. That early speed could set the race up for hold-up types to come through late as the leaders potentially tire in the closing stages. The key question is whether the prominent and front-running brigade can dictate terms and stretch the field, or if the race will collapse late to suit those delivered with a late run from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Kinbara Firstdraft KTB Selection61/100Useful performer who has been largely consistent without winning of late, finishing in the first four on four of his last five starts.
- 2Aill Dubh55/100Aill Dubh is a fair handicapper who has won over this trip and on this ground.
- 3Halfway House Lad53/100Fair performer who has won once from three starts at Cartmel.
- 4Scoro53/100Modest performer who has shown little in three runs since switching to hurdling.
- 5Fast Deal50/100Modest performer who has been on the go a long time and rarely threatens to win.
- 6Bravethewaves50/100Bravethewaves is a fair performer who has won twice from eight runs on good to soft ground and arrives here in decent recent form.
- 7Blazing Court49/100Blazing Court is a fair performer who has run four times at Cartmel without winning, his best effort a second over this trip.
- 8Roi Du Roume49/100Fair performer who has shown his best at this track with a second here last season.
- 9Judicial Review48/100Judicial Review is a fair performer who knows his way around this track, with three wins from 13 runs here including a recent second.
- 10Illogical Logic45/100Fair performer who has shown some competitiveness on good to soft ground, placing twice from eight starts.
- 11Path Of Stars42/100Path Of Stars is a fair performer who has won once from six runs at Cartmel and has placed at today's trip.
The contenders
Kinbara Firstdraft KTB Fit 61/100
Kinbara Firstdraft is a useful performer who has been largely consistent without winning of late, finishing in the first four on four of his last five starts. He steps up in trip today having shown only modest form when tried at this distance before, while this is also his first run at Cartmel. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate here from 26 runs and the jockey is 9% from 110 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace likely to unfold. He is dropping in class and his placed effort on good to soft ground suggests the surface will pose no problem.
Aill Dubh KTB Fit 55/100
Aill Dubh is a fair handicapper who has won over this trip and on this ground. He has already won once at Cartmel from just two runs here and arrives in solid form after two placed efforts on his last three starts. The trainer's modest strike rate at the track is offset by the jockey's stronger 15% record from 20 rides. A habitual front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is sure to set a strong gallop that could test the stamina of his rivals late on. He has won once from four starts on good to soft and clearly knows his way around this venue.
Halfway House Lad KTB Fit 53/100
Halfway House Lad is a fair performer who has won once from three starts at Cartmel. Recent form has been poor with two pulled-ups after a win, though the drop back from 3m1f to this shorter trip poses a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track with 12% and 15% strike rates respectively, while he has shown ability on good to soft ground with two wins from 12 starts and four places. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he will be right up there early in what is expected to be a strongly run affair.
Scoro KTB Fit 53/100
Scoro is a modest performer who has shown little in three runs since switching to hurdling. Steps up markedly in trip today with first-time headgear applied, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Cartmel, the yard recording a 20% strike rate from 25 runs and the rider 15% from 115 rides. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, though that assessment is based on limited evidence. He is dropping in class but remains unproven on good to soft ground.
Fast Deal KTB Fit 50/100
Fast Deal is a modest performer who has been on the go a long time and rarely threatens to win. He has shown bits of form around here without ever looking like taking a race, and his recent efforts have been no better than ordinary. The trainer's long record at the track is solid enough while the jockey has a good strike rate, but the horse himself looks limited at this level. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace that is forecast. He has one win from 12 starts on good to soft but his four runs at Cartmel have produced no win or place.
The rest of the field
BravethewavesKTB Fit 50/100
Bravethewaves is a fair performer who has won twice from eight runs on good to soft ground and arrives here in decent recent form. The yard has a solid 22% strike rate at Cartmel from 23 runs while the jockey is still seeking his first winner from nine rides at the track. Stepping up in trip for the first time today asks a fresh question of a horse making its debut at this course and he is usually held up.
Blazing CourtKTB Fit 49/100
Blazing Court is a fair performer who has run four times at Cartmel without winning, his best effort a second over this trip. He has shown little on good to soft ground in three attempts and his recent form is patchy. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate here from 52 runs while the jockey is 1-30 at the track. Usually held up, he has placed once but never won at the venue.
Roi Du RoumeKTB Fit 49/100
Roi Du Roume is a fair performer who has shown his best at this track with a second here last season. He drops back in trip today having been placed once in two runs at this distance and now tries headgear for the first time. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Cartmel though he remains unproven on good to soft ground. Usually held up, he has placed once from two runs at the course.
Judicial ReviewKTB Fit 48/100
Judicial Review is a fair performer who knows his way around this track, with three wins from 13 runs here including a recent second. He has also won on good to soft ground and at today's trip, so the conditions look suitable enough. The trainer has a solid 12 percent strike rate at Cartmel from a large sample while the jockey is less established with an 8 percent record from 48 rides. Usually held up.
Illogical LogicKTB Fit 45/100
Illogical Logic is a fair performer who has shown some competitiveness on good to soft ground, placing twice from eight starts. Drops back from a lengthy 3m3½f run to a trip he has tried twice before without success, which asks a fresh question. Trainer has a modest 5% strike rate from 97 runs at Cartmel while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from seven rides here. Usually held up.
Path Of StarsKTB Fit 42/100
Path Of Stars is a fair performer who has won once from six runs at Cartmel and has placed at today's trip. He has shown mixed results on good to soft ground with no win or place from two starts. The trainer has only had two runners here so the sample is too small to judge while the jockey's 10% strike rate from ten rides is modest. Usually held up.
KTB verdict
Kinbara Firstdraft is the KTB Selection. A useful performer who has been largely consistent without winning of late, finishing in the first four on four of his last five starts, he drops in class and his hold-up style should be perfectly suited to the strong pace that is expected. The trainer's record at Cartmel adds further encouragement. His main dangers are likely to be Aill Dubh, who has already won at the track and over the trip, and Halfway House Lad, who knows the venue well and will be prominent early, though both have questions to answer on recent form.
KTB Selection Kinbara Firstdraft
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 29 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Kinbara Firstdraft | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Aill Dubh | 10/3 | 7Bet |
| Halfway House Lad | 7/1 | William Hill |
| Scoro | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Fast Deal | 100/1 | 7Bet |
| Bravethewaves | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Blazing Court | 6/1 | William Hill |
| Roi Du Roume | 4/1 | William Hill |
| Judicial Review | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Illogical Logic | 15/2 | William Hill |
| Path Of Stars | 6/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Cartmel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cartmel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cartmel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Aill Dubh and Halfway House Lad are the two habitual front-runners expected to make the running or race prominently.
Who is the only horse dropping in class among the principals?
Both Kinbara Firstdraft and Scoro are dropping in class.
Which runner is making its first appearance at Cartmel?
Kinbara Firstdraft and Bravethewaves have no course form on record.
How many of the principals are unproven on good to soft ground?
Scoro and Roi Du Roume have no runs on good to soft.
Which horse has the strongest jockey record at Cartmel among those with at least 20 rides?
Sean Bowen has a 21% strike rate at Cartmel from 194 rides.
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