5:15 Epsom
This Class 4 handicap over 7f at Epsom on good to soft ground brings together a compact field of six where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 58 and 37. Silver Trumpet heads the numbers as the selection on the back of two wins from four starts at the track and a recent success, while the race features several runners stepping up in class and others with questions to answer on the surface or trip. The overall KTB picture points to a race where course knowledge and proven ability at the distance could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. With five of the six runners tending to be held up, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace rather than a front-end battle. The key question will be whether those coming from the rear can pick up quickly enough in what may turn into a sprint for the line inside the final two furlongs.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Silver Trumpet KTB Selection58/100
Silver Trumpet is a fair performer who has won twice at Epsom from four runs and also knows this trip well with five wins from 21 attempts. He has shown consistent competitiveness on good to soft ground without winning on it and brings solid recent form including a win last time out. The yard holds an 18% strike rate at the track from 153 runs. Charles Bishop rides, a combination that carries a 20% strike rate at Epsom. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and will look to come from off the pace in what is expected to be a tactical contest. Stepping up in class, his course record and recent win make him the one to beat.
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2Million Gold54/100
Million Gold is a fair performer who showed useful speed when winning a 6f maiden on debut before finishing down the field in two stronger races. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question. Trainer Michael Appleby has a solid 16% strike rate from 43 runs at Epsom while Robert Havlin rides. Usually held up with limited evidence, he will be produced late. Unproven on good to soft ground and with no course form on record, he remains an interesting contender despite the step up in trip and class.
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3Play Me51/100
Play Me is a modest performer who has won twice at Epsom from seven runs and also scored at today's trip. Recent form has been patchy with a win and a fifth from his last six starts while he remains unproven on good to soft ground. The yard holds an 8% strike rate at the track from a large sample. Donagh Murphy takes the ride with a 25% strike rate at Epsom from a small number of rides. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be waited with and produced late in a steadily-run race. Stepping up in class from draw one, his course record gives him each-way claims.
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4Dapper Guest50/100
Dapper Guest is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip from 16 attempts and brings solid recent form into the race. He has handled good to soft ground in two runs without placing and makes his first start at Epsom today. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate from 22 runs here while Saffie Osborne takes the ride. Typically settling in midfield, his run-style should see him well placed in a race that lacks an obvious leader. With no course form on record he will need to show his best on this first visit to the Downs.
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5French Affair50/100
French Affair is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins in the last three starts. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having been placed at the trip without winning, while his two runs on good to soft have produced no win or place. The trainer holds a 20% strike rate at Epsom from five runs yet the jockey is still seeking a first win from 20 rides here. Usually held up with high confidence, he steps up in class.
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6Fresh Fade37/100
Fresh Fade is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He steps up to 7f for the first time having failed to trouble the judge in two previous tries at the distance and is unproven on good to soft ground. Trainer has a 5% strike rate from 128 runs at Epsom. Usually held up, he looks up against it on recent form.
KTB verdict
Silver Trumpet stands out as the KTB Selection. He brings a strong course record of two wins from four starts at Epsom, knows the trip well, and arrives in solid form having won last time out. His ability to handle good to soft ground competitively, combined with the yard's healthy 18% strike rate at the track, gives him a clear edge in a steadily-run race where being produced late should suit. The main dangers are Million Gold, who brings debut promise and trainer support at the venue despite the trip query, and Play Me, whose twice-proven course record cannot be ignored even as a modest performer stepping up in class.
KTB Selection Silver Trumpet
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 31 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Silver Trumpet | 7/2 | 7Bet |
| Million Gold | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Play Me | 3/1 | William Hill |
| Dapper Guest | 5/1 | 7Bet |
| French Affair | 5/4 | 7Bet |
| Fresh Fade | 25/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 5:15 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Epsom results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Epsom?
Silver Trumpet has won twice from four runs at Epsom.
How many of these runners are proven on good to soft ground?
Silver Trumpet, Dapper Guest and French Affair have all run on good to soft; the other three are unproven.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Epsom in this field?
Jennie Candlish has a 20% strike rate at Epsom from five runs.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Epsom among those riding today?
Donagh Murphy has a 25% strike rate at Epsom from eight rides.
How many runners are stepping up in class?
Silver Trumpet, Play Me and French Affair are all stepping up in class.
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