Race Preview

5:40 Ballinrobe

Friday 11 September 2026 ·9 runners KTB Selection: Affinity Rock · 59/100

The 5:40 Ballinrobe is a mares beginners steeplechase over 2m7f6y on good to yielding ground, featuring a field of nine runners making the transition to fences. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Affinity Rock heading the numbers on 59, closely followed by Carried With Love on 56 and then Cherry Red and Straight Home both on 50. Overall the KTB assessments point to a race where recent placed form, course experience and trainer record at Ballinrobe will carry significant weight.

How the race shapes up

The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, and Affinity Rock's front-running style means he is likely to dictate terms from the outset with little pressure expected. Most of the field, including Carried With Love, Cherry Red, Straight Home and the remainder, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will prove hard for the closers to peg back over this distance on good to yielding ground.

The KTB Fit ranking

1Affinity Rock KTB Selection59/100

Form 10-223 · Cian Collins · Carl Millar(5)

Affinity Rock is a high-class performer who arrives in solid form after two placed efforts at this trip. The step back up in trip looks within his compass on the back of those recent placings. Course connections are a plus and the trainer has a respectable 9% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 32 runs. The jockey is still seeking a first course winner from 22 rides. His front-running style is ideally suited to the expected lone-leader pace shape, allowing him to set his own fractions. He has been placed once from three starts on good to yielding ground.
2Carried With Love56/100

Form 33327- · Jonathan Sweeney · Aidan Kelly

Carried With Love has been consistent at a modest level, placing in three of her last five starts including a third here over shorter. She steps up markedly in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of her stamina. The trainer holds a solid 21% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 14 runs while the jockey operates at a more modest 7% from 27 rides. She has been placed once from one run on good to yielding ground. Her held-up run style means she will be relying on the leader coming back to her in the closing stages.
3Cherry Red50/100

Form /U-P10 · D M Christie · Ben Harvey

Cherry Red has shown some promise with a win and a placed effort in recent runs but also has a pulled-up effort and an unseated to go with them. The step up in trip poses a fresh question while he has failed to win or place in two runs on good to yielding ground. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 46 runs while the jockey is 0% from 28 rides here. His held-up style will see him biding his time behind the expected lone leader. Recent form figures read /U-P10.
4Straight Home50/100

Form 1/41-3 · W P Mullins · Sean Cleary-Farrell(7)

Straight Home is a useful sort who has already won at this track and showed his well-being with a recent third after a break. He handles good to yielding ground, recording one win and two placed efforts from two starts on it. The step up in trip looks a fair question rather than a negative. Mullins has a strong 24% strike rate here from 405 runs, though the claiming jockey is still looking for his first winner from five rides at Ballinrobe. His held-up run style, with high confidence, fits the shape where the leader may prove hard to catch.
5Ad Caelum50/100

Form 6315PP · John Patrick Ryan · Alan O'Sullivan(5)

Ad Caelum is a useful performer who has won over course and distance and arrives in reasonable form having shown placed efforts at this trip. He drops back from 3m2f while first-time headgear is now applied, which could sharpen him up given his recent tendency to pull up. The trainer has a solid 11% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 347 runs but the claiming jockey has a modest strike-rate at the track. Recent form figures read 6315PP.
6Cooke's Lass45/100

Form /2F5P- · Gordon Elliott · Kevin Sexton

Cooke's Lass has shown some ability when runner-up on hurdling debut but has failed to build on it, pulling up on both subsequent starts including here over fences. She steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question. The yard has a solid 14% strike-rate at Ballinrobe from 468 runs while Sexton is operating at 8%. She is unproven on good to yielding ground. Recent form figures read /2F5P-.
7Joya Del Mar42/100

Form 016135 · Dermot A McLoughlin · Alix Balfe(7)

Joya Del Mar arrives in decent form with three wins from her last six starts and has shown she handles this sort of ground with a win and a placing from three runs on good to yielding. She steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 56 runs while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. Recent form figures read 016135.
8Survivors Sister42/100

Form 1P7-39 · Paul John Gilligan · Philip Donovan

Survivors Sister is a useful mare who has shown enough in recent runs to suggest she can be competitive at this level. She has twice been well held at this track and holds no strong record on good to yielding ground either. The trainer's modest strike rate here is another negative while the step up in trip asks a fresh question. Recent form figures read 1P7-39.
9Giorgia Rose40/100

Form 8-3330 · Emmet Mullins · Ricky Doyle

Giorgia Rose has shown some ability with three placed efforts from her last four starts but was well held on her only previous run here. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of her. Emmet Mullins has a 16% strike rate from 37 runs at Ballinrobe while Ricky Doyle is operating at just 4% from 79 rides at the track. She is unproven on good to yielding ground. Recent form figures read 8-3330.

KTB verdict

Affinity Rock looks the one to beat as the KTB selection. He is a high-class performer in solid recent form with two placed efforts at this trip, and his front-running style is perfectly suited to the expected uncontested lead. Course connections are a plus and the recent placings give confidence he can handle the step back up in trip. The trainer's respectable record at Ballinrobe adds further appeal. His main dangers are likely to be Carried With Love, who brings consistency and course placings but faces a big step up in trip, and Straight Home, who has already won at the track, handles the ground and represents a powerful yard.

KTB Selection Affinity Rock

This is the narrative read of the 5:40 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ballinrobe results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.

Questions about this race

Which horse is most suited to the expected lone-leader pace shape?

Affinity Rock, whose front-running style with medium confidence allows him to make the running or race on the pace in a race with one clear front-runner and little pressure.

What is the KTB Fit score for the selection Affinity Rock?

59/100.

How many times has Straight Home won at Ballinrobe?

Once from three runs.

Which runner is fitted with first-time headgear in this race?

Ad Caelum.

What is the trainer strike rate at Ballinrobe for the yard of Carried With Love?

21% from 14 runs with an A/E of 1.09.

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