7:45 Wolverhampton (AW)
A modest Class 6 handicap over 2m120y on the standard surface at Wolverhampton, with a small field of six runners where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 60 and 48. The race features several horses stepping up markedly in trip, which adds an element of uncertainty to their prospects, while others bring prior course success or recent improvement. Overall the KTB numbers point to a contest where experience at the trip and track could prove decisive against those venturing into unknown territory.
How the race shapes up
With a lone-leader pace shape carrying medium confidence, the race is set to be run with one horse establishing an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the closers to reel in late on. Niffler, who tends to make the running or race prominently, looks the obvious candidate to take that role from draw four, while the four held-up types – Wedonttellthetruth, Billy Bathgate, Al's River and Shopaholic – will be aiming to produce their efforts from off the pace. The key question is whether that uncontested lead will hand Niffler an advantage that the late runners cannot overcome, or if the step up in distance will expose those going for the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Wedonttellthetruth KTB Selection60/100
Wedonttellthetruth is a modest performer who has already won once over this course and distance on the standard surface. He steps up markedly in trip today after his last run over 1m6f, so the longer distance represents an unknown. The 3-year-old is held up in his races, usually producing his effort late, and comes from draw two. Trainer Fergal O'Brien has an 11% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 53 runs with an A/E of 0.97, while the trainer and jockey combination shows 10/33 (30%) with an A/E of 1.60 and +£26.98 LSP; jockey Gina Mangan has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.05 from 310 rides. He has a going record of 1 win from 4 on standard with 1 placed, and a course record of 1 win from 4 starts.
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2Hellion57/100
Hellion is a modest performer who has shown consistency in recent starts with a pair of thirds before a poor effort last time out. He steps up markedly in trip today having been campaigned over much shorter distances, which asks a fresh question of the 4-year-old. Dropping in class from his previous runs, he has no experience on the standard surface and no course form on record. Trainer Donald McCain has a 10% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 105 runs with an A/E of 1.31, while jockey Silvestre De Sousa has a 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.88 from 907 rides. His recent form figures read 33-0.
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3Billy Bathgate53/100
Billy Bathgate is a limited handicapper who has been in and out of form this year. The 10-year-old has won over today's trip in the past and returns to Wolverhampton, a track where he has already scored once from eight runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he acts on the standard surface with 3 wins from 31 starts and 12 placed efforts. Trainer Ewan Whillans has a 15% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 66 runs with an A/E of 1.46, and the trainer-jockey partnership stands at 8/51 (16%) with an A/E of 1.87 and +£31.83 LSP; jockey Greg Fairley has a 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.93 from 354 rides. His recent form reads 346153.
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4Al's River49/100
Al's River is a limited performer on the balance of his seven runs, with recent form that has included a third at this track. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of the 3-year-old. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he has been placed once from two starts on the standard surface without winning. Trainer James Horton has a 19% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 57 runs with an A/E of 1.38, while jockey Darragh Keenan has a 5% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.63 from 486 rides. His recent form figures read 3-6483.
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5Niffler49/100
Niffler is a modest performer who has improved sharply since handicapping, winning three of his last four starts including over this trip last time. He has already shown he handles this ground and the yard's solid 21% strike-rate at Wolverhampton adds confidence, though his only poor effort here so far leaves a small question over the track itself. The 3-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, has a going record of 2 wins from 5 on standard with 2 placed, and a course record of one run that finished 10th with no win or place.
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6Shopaholic48/100
Shopaholic is a modest performer who has shown some ability on the AW with a placed effort here over a shorter trip on her only visit. Recent form has been patchy and the 4-year-old now steps up markedly in distance for the first time which asks a fresh question. Dropping in class, she has been placed once from four starts on the standard surface without winning and has a course record of one run that finished second with no win. Trainer Jack Jones has a 12% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 138 runs with an A/E of 0.78.
KTB verdict
The uncontested lead looks likely to make this a test for the held-up horses, yet the KTB Selection Wedonttellthetruth still emerges as the one to beat. He brings course-and-distance success on the standard surface and is from a yard that operates at a steady level here, even if the marked step up in trip adds an unknown. His late-run style should still allow him to capitalise if the leader falters, with the main dangers being Niffler if he gets an easy time upfront, the consistent Hellion if the longer trip suits, and the experienced Billy Bathgate who knows the track and trip.
KTB Selection Wedonttellthetruth
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 18 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Wedonttellthetruth | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Hellion | 50/1 | 7Bet |
| Billy Bathgate | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Al's River | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Niffler | 1/2 | William Hill |
| Shopaholic | 5/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 7:45 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over this course and distance on the standard surface?
Wedonttellthetruth
Which runner is the only one likely to set an uncontested lead?
Niffler, who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse has previous winning form over today's trip?
Billy Bathgate
How many of these runners are stepping up markedly in trip?
Four – Wedonttellthetruth, Hellion, Al's River and Shopaholic.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Wolverhampton among those represented?
Sir Mark Prescott Bt with 21%.
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