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Trainer profile

Barry Connell

410 runners in the last 5 seasons · 56 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago 93% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)
from 1 Jan 2022
65–410
Wins / Runs
15.9%
Strike rate
n=410
155 (38%)
Placed
1.20
Fair A/E
n=410 · 0.97 incl. margin
+0.44
£1 level stake
n=410 at SP · +0.1%
£1.87m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
17.5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 80 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 16% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.20). With a claiming rider up the record reads 24% (62 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 410 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Apr–May 39.3% when favourite Michael O'Sullivan: 15.4% from 156 Claiming riders: 24.2% Group/Graded: 18.8% Sends off the favourite in 15% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Punchestown (22.6%, n=53), clear of the yard's 15.9% baseline. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 24.2% (n=62, Fair A/E 1.64), but debutants struggle at 9.4% (n=32, Fair A/E 0.85). Michael O'Sullivan rides 38% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (15.4%, A/E 1.03) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (24.3%, n=111). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 10.1% over 69 runners, 5.8pts below the baseline. 13 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham (Mar 2025, £226,944). The stable star of the record: Marine Nationale (IRE) — 8 wins from 15 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Apr–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
13.7%−2.2
n=146 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −27.32
New recruits · first run for the yard
25%+9.1
n=4 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −1.62
Debutants · first career start
9.4%−6.5
n=32 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −13.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
21.7%+5.8
n=23 · A/E 1.92 · £1 +25.75
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−15.9
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
39.3%
n=61 · A/E 1.19 · £1 +2.15
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
24.2%+8.3
n=62 · A/E 1.64 · £1 +11.19
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
18.8%+2.9
n=69 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +64.92

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 26.2% vs 15.9% · n=61
Off a 31-60-day break 24.3% vs 15.9% · n=111
With claiming riders up 24.2% vs 15.9% · n=62
At Punchestown 22.6% vs 15.9% · n=53
On Good to Soft going 10.1% vs 15.9% · n=69
With debutants 9.4% vs 15.9% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 231 32 13.9% −43.29
Chase 131 21 16% +34.75
Flat 29 6 20.7% −1.60
NH Flat 19 6 31.6% +10.58

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 185 31 16.8% −8.72
Good 84 17 20.2% +17.61
Good to Soft 69 7 10.1% −17.83
Heavy 64 10 15.6% +17.38
Standard (AW) 7 0 0% −7.00
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown 53 12 22.6% +57.32
Fairyhouse 49 6 12.2% −26.63
Naas 34 4 11.8% +4.00
Leopardstown 34 5 14.7% −7.00
Galway 29 4 13.8% −11.62
Navan 28 4 14.3% −3.17
Kilbeggan 21 2 9.5% −14.50
Ballinrobe 19 4 21.1% +8.87
Gowran Park 18 2 11.1% −14.23
Thurles 14 2 14.3% +2.25
Wexford 13 2 15.4% −0.25
Roscommon 11 4 36.4% +10.75
Limerick 11 3 27.3% +1.50
Listowel 11 3 27.3% +7.23
Cork 10 1 10% −6.75

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 70 13 18.6% +63.92
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 72 26 36.1% 1.15 −1.60
2nd–3rd fav 123 21 17.1% 1.06 −26.96
4th–6th fav 119 10 8.4% 1.11 −30.00
7th+ in betting 96 8 8.3% 2.75 +59.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
88.7% completed · 362 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 131 80.2% 6 6 14 0 0
Hurdle 231 93.5% 3 2 9 0 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Farrokh (FR) 25 3 12 8 Oct 26
Slane Hill (IRE) 21 3 7 13 Oct 26
Enniskerry (IRE) 20 5 10 25 Sep 26
Nine Graces (GB) 20 3 9 4 Feb 26
Hgranca De Thaix (FR) 17 3 9 6 Apr 26
Espanito Bello (FR)from Keith Henry Clarke 16 2 2 9 Mar 25
Hashtag Pretender (FR) 15 2 11 18 Oct 26
Tannery Park (GB) 15 1 3 10 Aug 26
Low Style (FR) 15 1 7 26 May 26
Marine Nationale (IRE) 15 8 14 28 Apr 26
My Immortal (IRE) 14 2 3 14 Mar 26
Apple's Of Bresil (FR) 12 3 7 14 Oct 26
All 56 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 56 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Keith Henry Clarke (5); 45 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard, most often for G Ahern (3); 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 6
Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
1124151921131392520913
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderMichael O'Sullivan
38% of all rides
15.4% SR · A/E 1.03
RiderRWSR£1
Michael O'Sullivan 156 24 15.4% −6.29
Sean Flanagan 123 22 17.9% +2.67
Mr Finian Maguire 59 10 16.9% +22.06
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→
80
Archived wins
13
Pattern / graded wins
£2.03m
Prize money
2022
Best season · 18 wins
Marine Nationale (IRE) — BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2025 · Grade 1
£226,944
Marine Nationale (IRE) — William Hill Champion Chase (Grade 1) Punchestown · Apr 2025 · Grade 1
£177,000
Good Land (FR) — Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors '50,000 Cheltenham Bonus For Stable Staff' Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) Leopardstown · Feb 2023 · Grade 1
£88,500
Notable horses
Marine Nationale (IRE) Enniskerry (IRE) King Alex (FR) Farrokh (FR) Espanito Bello (FR) Hgranca De Thaix (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Shantou (USA) 14.3% · 5–35
Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,819 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.
Blue Bresil (FR) 25% · 7–28
Progeny have won 12.1% of 3,489 runs since 2008 (454 horses).
Manatee (GB) 12% · 3–25
Progeny have won 10.2% of 274 runs since 2008 (66 horses).
Westerner (GB) 29.2% · 7–24
Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,823 runs since 2008 (941 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.
Jeremy (USA) 23.8% · 5–21
Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,724 runs since 2008 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.
Kapgarde (FR) 14.3% · 3–21
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,607 runs since 2008 (723 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 523 · newest first

The latest 50 of 523 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 24 July 2020 to 18 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Hashtag Pretender (FR)J: Sean Flanagan STL Logistics Handicap Steeplechase19.5f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 4th 7/2
17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Tiffany Case (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan #Thisisracing Maiden Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran PU 33/1
14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Apple's Of Bresil (FR)J: Sean Flanagan Matchbook Betting Exchange Steeplechase (Grade 3)Class 1 · 23f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 100/30
14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Silken Thomas (GB)J: Sean Flanagan Matchbook €50,000 Graduation Series Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 15 ran 12th 11/1
13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Slane Hill (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle23.5f · Good · 18 ran 14th 18/1
08 Oct 26 Tramore (IRE) Farrokh (FR)J: Sean Flanagan Pickardstown Handicap Steeplechase15.5f · Yielding · 6 ran 1st 3/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Slane Hill (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 14 ran 7th 16/1
28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Finest Band (FR)J: Mr Finian Maguire GavinLynchRacing.com Flat Race15.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 13th 9/4
25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Enniskerry (IRE)J: Mr Finian Maguire Listowel Races Supporters Club Failte Abhaile (Q.R.) Race In Memory Of Pat Scanlon14f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 8th 10/1
24 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Mart Lane (IRE)J: Mr Finian Maguire Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 15 ran 1st 5/2F
20 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Net Boy (FR)J: Sean Flanagan Kinisla Handicap Steeplechase17.5f · Good · 12 ran 1st 12/1
20 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Apple's Of Bresil (FR)J: Sean Flanagan Kinisla Kerrymaid Rated Novice Steeplechase17.5f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 11/4
11 Sep 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Farrokh (FR)J: Liam McKenna Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Steeplechase17f · Yielding · 16 ran 2nd 9/1
07 Sep 26 Galway (IRE) Mart Lane (IRE)J: Mr Finian Maguire Anglo Printers Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 20 ran 2nd 3/1
04 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Hashtag Pretender (FR)J: Sean Flanagan Kilsaran Handicap Steeplechase20.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 4th 15/2
03 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Tiffany Case (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan SIS Supporting Irish Racing Maiden Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 8th 66/1
28 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Farrokh (FR)J: Sean Flanagan Dan & Breda Byrne Memorial Handicap Steeplechase19.5f · Yielding · 9 ran 4th 6/1
26 Aug 26 Bellewstown (IRE) Phyllis Rodda (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good · 14 ran 9th 80/1
10 Aug 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Tannery Park (GB)J: Sean Flanagan Tim Kelly Group Handicap Hurdle22.5f · Good · 16 ran 14th 12/1
10 Aug 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Tiffany Case (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Bank Of Ireland Brendan Maloney Memorial Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 15 ran 5th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Barry Connell's strike rate?
Barry Connell has won 65 of 410 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 15.9% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Barry Connell do best at?
Punchestown by strike rate: 12 wins from 53 runners (22.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Barry Connell?
Michael O'Sullivan, with 156 runners since 2022 — 38% of the total. That pairing has won 24 (15.4%).
Is Barry Connell in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Barry Connell's Fair A/E?
1.20, from 410 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).