Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 160 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 16% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.08). With a claiming rider up the record reads 22% (430 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 3,042 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Jul–Aug32.9% when favouriteOlivier Peslier: 15.9% from 864Claiming riders: 22.3%Sends off the favourite in 16% of races
The read
The record is strongest at Compiegne (26.7%, n=30), clear of the yard's 15.6% baseline. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 22.3% (n=430, Fair A/E 1.47), but a horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 6.2% (n=97, Fair A/E 0.58). Olivier Peslier rides 28% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (15.9%, A/E 1.09) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (23.2%, n=155). 132 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp (FR) (Oct 2012, £1,904,667). The stable star of the record: Esles (FR) — 8 wins from 20 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Aug.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 15.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
14.2%−1.4
n=697 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −21.72
New recruits · first run for the yard
23.5%+7.9
n=17 · A/E 1.69 · £1 +8.90
Debutants · first career start
12.4%−3.2
n=590 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −82.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
6.2%−9.4
n=97 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −45.30
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
26.7%+11.1
n=15 · A/E 1.87 · £1 +6.00
When favourite
32.9%
n=486 · A/E 1.11 · £1 +27.57
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
22.3%+6.7
n=430 · A/E 1.47 · £1 +153.20
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
11.9%−3.7
n=787 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −65.12
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Rudy Pimbonnet28.4% vs 15.6% · n=95
With first-time headgear6.2% vs 15.6% · n=97
With claiming riders up22.3% vs 15.6% · n=430
Off a 8-14-day break23.2% vs 15.6% · n=155
At Compiegne26.7% vs 15.6% · n=30
With Flavien Prat9% vs 15.6% · n=78
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good76612916.8%+40.92
Soft73511615.8%−3.39
Good to Soft6128614.1%−67.50
Standard (AW)60210717.8%+35.30
Heavy3193511%−61.00
Good to Firm7342.9%−0.30
Firm100%—
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly (FR)77012816.6%+45.63
Longchamp (FR)5999515.9%+51.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)5698214.4%−121.57
Deauville (FR)5098416.5%+42.77
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)3153711.7%−93.50
Clairefontaine33721.2%−3.80
Compiegne30826.7%−9.60
Fontainebleau28517.9%−1.50
Vichy24520.8%+7.80
La Teste De Buch (FR)20315%−9.90
Toulouse (FR)20315%+13.80
Lyon Parilly1516.7%−9.40
Craon11436.4%+18.10
Nantes8225%−0.80
Bordeaux Le Bouscat800%−7.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 17879411.9%−65.12
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite51516632.2%1.10+20.47
2nd–3rd fav88015517.6%1.07−44.04
4th–6th fav899717.9%0.94−200.40
7th+ in betting520305.8%1.46+168.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f1,27319815.6%−85.27
1m2f – 1m4f1,07318016.8%+32.77
6f – 7f5728114.2%−48.57
Under 6f731115.1%+63.60
1m5f – 2m51611.8%−18.50
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20081102522.7%+45.05
20091162824.1%+13.00
20102192611.9%−68.80
20112172812.9%−25.80
20122575220.2%+169.60
20132574417.1%+18.55
20141702313.5%−48.95
20152143516.4%−16.14
20161741910.9%−51.98
20171652213.3%−47.80
20181703319.4%+53.60
20191853116.8%+36.40
20201792413.4%−36.40
20211652515.2%+37.70
20221511912.6%−35.90
20231512113.9%−55.60
20241422114.8%−42.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps6008313.8%+129.60
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners94715616.5%−56.82
5-7 runners64511417.7%−145.50
11-13 runners5625910.5%−68.05
14-16 runners5186212%+41.60
2-4 runners1956131.3%+83.50
17+ runners1732212.7%+87.80
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 622 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 11 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 1 arrived from another yard in our archive; 59 had their first archived run for this yard.
17 have since run for another yard; 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
171917171516171917131211
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Solemia (IRE) — Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3yo+ Colts Fillies & Mares) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2012 · Group 1
£1,904,667
Villa Marina (GB) — Prix de l'Opera Longines (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Grande Course) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2019 · Group 1
£257,387
Recoletos (FR) — Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (3yo+ no geldings) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Sep 2018 · Group 1
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,875 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.
Progeny have won 12% of 5,598 runs since 2009 (515 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 15.9% from 1,091. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.8% from 1,282. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 15.2% from 593. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.7% from 575.
Progeny have won 13% of 8,375 runs since 2014 (980 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.3% from 460.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 3,489 · newest first
The latest 50 of 3,489 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 March 2005 to 18 December 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is C Laffon-Parias's strike rate?
C Laffon-Parias has won 476 of 3,042 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.6% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does C Laffon-Parias do best at?
Compiegne by strike rate: 8 wins from 30 runners (26.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for C Laffon-Parias?
Olivier Peslier, with 864 runners since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 137 (15.9%).
What is C Laffon-Parias's Fair A/E?
1.08, from 2,753 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
C Laffon-Parias·SR 15.6%·A/E 1.08
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