Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 10%Mr John Dixon: 4.4% from 90
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10%+5.6
n=30 · A/E 1.41 · £1 −4.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
25%+20.6
n=4 · A/E 2.33 · £1 +0.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.4
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
9.1%+4.7
n=11 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −5.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.4%+0.0
n=90 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −59.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Class 49.8% vs 4.4% · n=41
On Good going6.8% vs 4.4% · n=44
In Hurdle races4.9% vs 4.4% · n=81 · A/E 0.62
Over 2m1f – 2m4f3.9% vs 4.4% · n=51 · A/E 0.57
With Mr John Dixon4.4% vs 4.4% · n=90 · A/E 0.58
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle8144.9%−50.00
Chase900%−9.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good4436.8%−19.00
Soft2000%−20.00
Good to Soft1900%−19.00
Heavy600%−6.00
Good to Firm11100%+5.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Carlisle3512.9%−30.50
Hexham17211.8%+3.50
Cartmel1100%−11.00
Perth800%−8.00
Wetherby700%−7.00
Kelso5120%+1.00
Catterick300%−3.00
Ayr200%−2.00
Sedgefield100%−1.00
Newcastle100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 44149.8%−10.00
Class 52800%−28.00
Class 31700%−17.00
Class 2400%−4.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav11218.2%0.88−1.00
4th–6th fav3612.8%0.31−30.00
7th+ in betting4212.4%0.76−27.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f5123.9%−31.50
1m5f – 2m2214.5%−16.50
2m5f – 3m10110%−4.00
Over 3m700%−7.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221417.1%−9.50
20232114.8%−15.50
20241616.3%−1.00
20252100%−21.00
20261815.6%−12.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7633.9%−49.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3900%−39.00
5-7 runners2627.7%−14.50
11-13 runners1915.3%−4.00
14-16 runners300%−3.00
2-4 runners3133.3%+1.50
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 7 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 7 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive; 1 had its first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 6 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00907100002000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Captain Zebo (IRE) — Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Carlisle · Dec 2020 · Class 2
£10,397
Captain Zebo (IRE) — Like Racing TV On Facebook Handicap Hurdle Carlisle · Feb 2020 · Class 3
£8,123
Pistol (IRE) — Watch Racing Uk On 3 Devices Handicap Hurdle Carlisle · Feb 2016 · Class 3
Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,190 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 888.
Brian Boru (GB)13.3% · 2–15
Progeny have won 11% of 4,122 runs since 2008 (285 horses).
Court Cave (IRE)0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,928 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 934.
Progeny have won 10.9% of 3,101 runs since 2008 (337 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 5.9% from 320. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.7% from 312.
Progeny have won 10.3% of 1,063 runs since 2008 (201 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 17.6% from 119.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 295 · newest first
The latest 50 of 295 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 January 2005 to 4 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is John Dixon's strike rate?
John Dixon has won 4 of 90 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.4% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Dixon do best at?
Carlisle by strike rate: 1 wins from 35 runners (2.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John Dixon?
Mr John Dixon, with 90 runners since 2022 — 100% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (4.4%).
What is John Dixon's Fair A/E?
0.58, from 90 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
John Dixon·SR 4.4%·A/E 0.58
KTB
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