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Trainer profile

Raphael Marcel

43 runners in the last 5 seasons · 13 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jan 2024 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)
from 1 Jan 2022
3–43
Wins / Runs
7%
Strike rate
n=43
7 (16%)
Placed
1.42
Fair A/E
n=43 · 1.19 incl. margin
+79.80
£1 level stake
n=43 at SP · +185.6%
£46,962
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
11.1%+4.1
n=18 · A/E 2.09 · £1 −1.20
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.0
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.0
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.1%+0.1
n=14 · A/E 2.18 · £1 −7.70

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Standard (AW) going 3.2% vs 7% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 31 1 3.2% +75.00
Soft 5 0 0% −5.00
Good to Soft 4 1 25% +2.30
Heavy 3 1 33.3% +7.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR) 23 1 4.3% +83.00
Chantilly (FR) 9 0 0% −9.00
Saint-Cloud (FR) 5 1 20% +1.30
Longchamp (FR) 3 1 33.3% +7.50
Clairefontaine (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00
Craon (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav 3 0 0% 0.00 −3.00
4th–6th fav 9 1 11.1% 1.19 −2.70
7th+ in betting 31 2 6.5% 2.30 +85.50
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Got Flight (FR) 11 2 2 12 Jan 24
York Town (FR)then S Gouvaze 6 1 1 29 Oct 23
Bella Florida (FR) 6 0 2 10 Jul 23
Zella Des Hardys (FR) 4 0 0 7 Jan 23
Princess Laura (FR)then S Gouvaze 3 0 0 16 Nov 23
Rayjo (FR) 3 0 0 27 Aug 23
Havana Way (IRE)from Mme Stephanie Nigge 3 0 1 24 Feb 23
Toujours Plus (FR)from Y Mathijs 2 0 1 4 Feb 22
Aoraki (FR)from L Rovisse 1 0 0 19 Jan 24
Sealeria (FR)then James Grassick 1 0 0 29 Dec 23
Damasco (FR) 1 0 0 17 Oct 22
Amant (FR) 1 0 0 24 Jun 22
All 13 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 13 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 9 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard, most often for S Gouvaze (2); 10 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0050010000020000
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Fabrice Veron 14 1 7.1% −3.50
Mme Aude Duporte 5 0 0% −5.00
Leo Roussel 3 0 0% −3.00
Antoine Subias 3 1 33.3% +3.30
Mme Coralie Pacaut 3 0 0% −3.00
Thomas Trullier 2 0 0% −2.00
Christopher Grosbois 1 0 0% −1.00
Mme Lorette Gallo 1 0 0% −1.00
Maximilien Justum 1 0 0% −1.00
Damien Boche 1 1 100% +105.00
Jules Mobian 1 0 0% −1.00
Mr Guilain Bertrand 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→
9
Archived wins
£120k
Prize money
2018
Best season · 3 wins
York Town (FR) — Prix du Chateau de Longchamp (Handicap) (4yo) (Moyenne Course) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · May 2023
£13,274
Marina Eria (FR) — Prix de la Genevraye (Handicap) (3yo) (Turf) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · Apr 2018
£10,177
Got Flight (FR) — Prix du Cap Levi (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack) Deauville (FR) · Mar 2023
£8,850
Notable horses
Got Flight (FR) Bella Noche (FR) Creek Of Zambia (FR) York Town (FR) Marina Eria (FR) Goldy Maker (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Soldier Of Fortune (IRE) 18.2% · 2–11
Progeny have won 11.4% of 5,815 runs since 2008 (679 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Brametot (IRE) 14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 4.7% of 193 runs since 2008 (37 horses).
Style Vendome (FR) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,231 runs since 2008 (150 horses).
Olympic Glory (IRE) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,055 runs since 2008 (264 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.7% from 148.
Zelzal (FR) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 9.5% of 1,679 runs since 2008 (240 horses).
Dabirsim (FR) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,135 runs since 2008 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 254. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 142.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 104 · newest first

The latest 50 of 104 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 30 April 2015 to 19 January 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Jan 24 Deauville (FR) Aoraki (FR)J: Leo Roussel Prix de Saint-James (Maiden) (4yo) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)7.5f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 66/1
12 Jan 24 Deauville (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Eddy Hardouin Prix du Trident (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)9.5f · Standard · 16 ran 10th 41/5
29 Dec 23 Deauville (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Leo Roussel Prix de la Bourdonniere (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 20/1
29 Dec 23 Deauville (FR) Sealeria (FR)J: Leo Roussel Prix de Martainville (Conditions) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)9.5f · Standard · 15 ran 15th 45/1
05 Dec 23 Deauville (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix de la Maison de la Truie Qui File (Handicap) (3yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 15 ran 6th 20/1
16 Nov 23 Deauville (FR) Princess Laura (FR)J: Mme Coralie Pacaut Prix de l'Hotel du Doyen (Handicap) (3yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 15 ran 15th 46/1
16 Nov 23 Deauville (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Theo Bachelot Prix de l'Hotel du Doyen (Handicap) (3yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 15 ran 11th 27/1
29 Oct 23 Longchamp (FR) York Town (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix des Erables (Handicap) (3yo+) (Grande Course) (Turf)14f · Heavy · 12 ran 5th 25/1
29 Oct 23 Longchamp (FR) Princess Laura (FR)J: Mme Coralie Pacaut Prix de Ponthieu (Handicap) (3yo) (Grande Course) (Turf)11f · Heavy · 14 ran 13th 35/1
15 Sep 23 Saint-Cloud (FR) Princess Laura (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix du Lieu Feral (Handicap) (3yo) (Turf)10f · Soft · 18 ran 17th 37/1
15 Sep 23 Saint-Cloud (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Mr Guilain Bertrand Prix de Massy - iJockey GPA Handicap Challenge (Handicap) (4yo+) (Amateur Riders) (Turf)10.5f · Soft · 11 ran 5th 17/1
27 Aug 23 Deauville (FR) Rayjo (FR)J: Mme Coralie Pacaut Prix Casino Barriere Trouville (Handicap) (3yo) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)7f · Slow · 16 ran 16th 67/1
22 Aug 23 Deauville (FR) York Town (FR)J: Delphine Santiago Trophee du Personnel Categorie Personnel de Soins (Handicap) (3yo+) (Round Course) (Turf)16f · Soft · 13 ran 8th 20/1
10 Jul 23 Chantilly (FR) Bella Florida (FR)J: Thomas Trullier Prix de Versigny (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)13.5f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 12/1
10 Jul 23 Chantilly (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Maxime Guyon Prix de Versigny (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)13.5f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 19/5
11 May 23 Longchamp (FR) York Town (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix du Chateau de Longchamp (Handicap) (4yo) (Moyenne Course) (Turf)15f · Heavy · 10 ran 1st 19/2
17 Apr 23 Chantilly (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix du Chemin de la Cartouche (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)10.5f · Standard · 15 ran 7th 35/1
17 Apr 23 Chantilly (FR) Bella Florida (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix du Chemin des Poissonniers (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 13/1
10 Mar 23 Deauville (FR) Bella Florida (FR)J: Fabrice Veron Prix du Cap Levi (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 16 ran 13th 71/10
10 Mar 23 Deauville (FR) Got Flight (FR)J: Damien Boche Prix du Cap Levi (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 16 ran 1st 105/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Raphael Marcel's strike rate?
Raphael Marcel has won 3 of 43 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Raphael Marcel's Fair A/E?
1.42, from 43 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).