Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 14.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−14.3
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−14.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−14.3
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
45.5%
n=11 · A/E 1.86 · £1 +6.13
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
25%+10.7
n=16 · A/E 2.40 · £1 +2.63
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Sean Houlihan10% vs 14.3% · n=30
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle28310.7%−8.75
Chase19421.1%−0.12
NH Flat200%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft17211.8%−6.12
Good14321.4%+7.00
Soft10220%−3.75
Heavy700%−7.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Exeter19421.1%+8.25
Taunton16212.5%−8.62
Newton Abbot9111.1%−5.50
Chepstow300%−3.00
Wincanton100%−1.00
Hereford100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 528621.4%+5.63
Class 42114.8%−16.50
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite11545.5%1.86+6.13
2nd–3rd fav7114.3%0.91+1.00
4th–6th fav1500%0.00−15.00
7th+ in betting1616.3%2.49−3.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m20420%−5.87
2m1f – 2m4f1516.7%−7.00
1m5f – 2m14214.3%+2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20229222.2%−2.50
202313323.1%+7.38
20241417.1%−6.00
20254125%−0.75
2026900%−9.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps36719.4%+2.13
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners1616.3%−12.75
8-10 runners15213.3%−7.62
14-16 runners9333.3%+15.00
5-7 runners5120%−1.50
17+ runners200%−2.00
2-4 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 6 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 6 horses listed, 1 arrived from another yard in our archive; 5 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 5 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
1102711330····033
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2007→
11
Archived wins
£74,764
Prize money
2023
Best season · 3 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Imperial Joe (IRE) — Richard Williams Memorial Handicap Chase Taunton · Mar 2023 · Class 4
£6,496
Imperial Joe (IRE) — Annie Barrett Birthday Handicap Chase Taunton · Apr 2023 · Class 5
£5,439
Looking For Larry (IRE) — Peter Holland Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div 2) Exeter · Jan 2025 · Class 5
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,891 runs since 2008 (295 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 1.9% from 104. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.3% from 279.
Progeny have won 11.4% of 5,813 runs since 2008 (678 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Progeny have won 9.6% of 1,133 runs since 2008 (197 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.5% from 474.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 136 · newest first
The latest 50 of 136 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 1 April 2007 to 3 June 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Tim Dennis's strike rate?
Tim Dennis has won 7 of 49 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 14.3% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Tim Dennis's Fair A/E?
1.30, from 49 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Tim Dennis·SR 14.3%·A/E 1.30
KTB
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