7:15 Brighton
This Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip of 5f 60y at Brighton on good ground features a compact field of six where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 57 and 43. The top two in the KTB order, Bona Fortuna and Mr Cool, stand out with scores of 57 and 55 respectively, while the remainder are rated in the high 40s and low 40s. With a strong pace anticipated, the race is set up to test stamina late on and could suit those capable of timing their run from off the speed.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is strong with medium confidence, driven by two or more habitual front-runners who are likely to set a searching gallop from the outset. Bona Fortuna and Pop Dancer both tend to make the running or race prominently, which points to an early battle that could see the pace collapse in the final furlong. This in turn should play into the hands of the hold-up performers, with Mr Cool, Ancient Times and Diomed Spirit all usually producing their effort late. The key question is whether any of the prominent pair can dictate matters and hold on, or if the race will fall to a closer.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Bona Fortuna KTB Selection57/100
Bona Fortuna is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form and won once from two runs at Brighton. He drops back to 5¼f today having been placed twice without winning at the trip, while his record on good ground reads two placed efforts from four starts. The yard holds an 11% strike rate here from 135 runs. He is the KTB selection and lines up with a KTB Fit of 57. From draw 6 he tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence. The trainer-jockey combination shows a 4/15 record with an A/E of 1.67 and +£4.00 LSP, and he steps down in class off the back of recent form figures of 2226-6.
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2Mr Cool55/100
Mr Cool is a modest performer with a busy record and a solid recent sequence of 523131 that includes three wins. He drops back to 5¼f today having failed to win in two previous tries at the trip, while this is his first run at Brighton. The trainer holds a 21% strike rate here from 29 runs. Rated with a KTB Fit of 55, he is held up and usually produces his effort late with high confidence. The yard and jockey combination shows 2/15 with an A/E of 0.61 and -£7.30 LSP. He has three wins from 12 starts on good ground and lines up from draw 4 at the age of four.
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3Ancient Times48/100
Ancient Times is a modest performer who has won four times at this trip but is 0-12 in 2024 and was well held when last seen over 6f. He drops back to his optimum distance from stall 1 and has a solid record on good ground. Trainer Harry Eustace has a 25% strike rate at Brighton from 40 runs while jockey George Wood is unproven here. With a KTB Fit of 48 he is held up and usually produces his effort late with medium confidence. He drops in class with recent form figures of 0-0129 and is an eight-year-old with three wins from 17 starts on good going.
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4Crypto Quest47/100
Crypto Quest is a modest performer with a solid record on good ground and a previous win at this trip. He drops back from 6f having shown bits of form last year yet has been off since December and makes his first visit to Brighton. The trainer's modest 9% strike-rate here from a big sample adds little encouragement. He carries a KTB Fit of 47. The yard and jockey show 89/924 with an A/E of 1.04 and +£24.11 LSP. From draw 5 at the age of seven, his recent form reads 4023/0 and he has one win from four starts on good ground.
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5Diomed Spirit45/100
Diomed Spirit is a limited performer who has won once in three runs at Brighton and drops back to his winning trip today. Recent form is respectable for the grade with two wins in his last six starts yet he has never placed from five runs on good ground. Trainer Chris Gordon holds a solid 11% strike rate here while Saffie Osborne is aboard. He has a KTB Fit of 45, is held up with high confidence, drops in class and lines up from draw 2 off recent form figures of 636212.
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6Pop Dancer43/100
Pop Dancer is a limited performer who has won three times from 13 starts at Brighton and also has a solid record at this trip with seven wins from 48 attempts. He has shown fair form on good ground with two wins and three places from seven starts. The trainer has a 13% strike rate from 1182 runs at the track while Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride. Stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 43, he tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence and his recent form reads 1200-6 from draw 3.
KTB verdict
Bona Fortuna is the KTB selection. A fair performer with placed consistency and a prior Brighton success, he drops in class to a trip where he has performed creditably and his prominent run-style gives him every chance to take the race by the scruff from draw 6 on good ground. The strong pace should ensure the race unfolds in his favour if he can maintain his effort. Mr Cool, with his hold-up style and recent winning sequence, is the most obvious danger, while Ancient Times and Crypto Quest cannot be entirely dismissed if the leaders go too hard early.
KTB Selection Bona Fortuna
This is the narrative read of the 7:15 Brighton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Brighton racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Brighton results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping back to its winning trip having scored at Brighton before?
Diomed Spirit has won once in three runs at Brighton and drops back to his winning trip today.
How many front-runners are expected to ensure a strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners — Bona Fortuna and Pop Dancer — point to a strong pace that could collapse late.
Which runner has the strongest trainer strike rate at Brighton in this field?
Harry Eustace has a 25% strike rate at Brighton from 40 runs for Ancient Times.
Who holds the best recent form sequence among the principals?
Mr Cool has a solid recent sequence of 523131 that includes three wins.
Which horse is making its first visit to Brighton off a break since December?
Crypto Quest has been off since December and makes his first visit to Brighton.
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