4:50 Perth
This Class 5 handicap hurdle at Perth over 2m7f207y on good ground brings together eight runners, several with proven ability at the track and trip. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Dalileo and Down Around separated by just a single point on 64 and 63 respectively, while Theirshegoes and Midnight Moonshine sit on 56. The race features a strong pace likely to test stamina late on, with course form, age and recent confidence all playing key parts in the assessment.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strong and confidence in that view is high. Down Around and Burgundy Man are both inclined to race prominently or make the running, which should ensure an honest gallop that could leave the leaders vulnerable in the closing stages. This strongly favours hold-up types who can produce their effort late, with several runners in the field sharing that run-style and poised to strike once the pace collapses.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Dalileo KTB Selection64/100
Dalileo is an 11-year-old with a fine record at Perth, having won here four times from 25 starts, and he has also won four times at today's trip. His recent form figures of -73117 confirm he remains capable of winning at this level despite his years and a total of 50 runs on the clock. He is a useful performer who acts on good ground, recording four wins from 30 starts on it with another 15 placed efforts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is ideally suited by the strong pace that is anticipated. Trainer Lisa Harrison has a 10% strike rate at Perth from 481 runs with an A/E of 0.97, while jockey Peter Kavanagh operates at 9% from 95 rides with an A/E of 0.92; both have solid if unspectacular records at the track.
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2Down Around63/100
Down Around is a smart performer who arrives in decent form following a recent win and with solid placed efforts at today's trip already on his record. The 9-year-old acts on good ground, where he has two wins and seven placed efforts from 15 starts, and stepping up only slightly in distance looks well within range. He tends to make the running or race on the pace, which will be significant given the strong pace shape expected. Trainer Gordon Elliott has a strong 28% strike rate at Perth from 817 runs with an A/E of 1.00, while jockey Sean Bowen is even better on 32% from 342 rides with an A/E of 1.1. He has no previous course form on record but the combination of recent confidence and powerful yard and rider statistics at the venue makes him a major player.
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3Theirshegoes56/100
Theirshegoes is a useful performer who has placed twice at Perth without winning, recording thirds on both visits, and she has also shown form at today's trip. The 9-year-old mare has a solid record on good ground with one win and five placed efforts from 12 starts. Her recent form figures of 45-782 suggest she remains competitive at this level. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be suited by the anticipated strong pace. Trainer Mrs A M Thomson has no previous runners at Perth, while jockey Joshua Thompson, claiming 5lb, has a respectable 12% strike rate at the track from 26 rides with an A/E of 0.93.
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4Midnight Moonshine56/100
Midnight Moonshine is a smart performer who has been out of form this season, showing a string of modest efforts with recent figures of -09056. The 7-year-old drops back in trip today having been placed over this distance before, although he has never won at it. He has been competitive on good ground without winning, recording one placed effort from seven starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will relish the strong pace that is likely. Trainer R Mike Smith has a modest 7% strike rate at Perth from 378 runs with an A/E of 0.69, while jockey Miss Becky Smith, claiming 7lb, is 1-10 at the track with an A/E of 0.59.
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5Burgundy Man53/100
Burgundy Man is a fair handicap chaser who knows his way around Perth, having won here from 16 runs. He has been out of form this season with recent figures of 6-P9PP yet retains some ability on good ground where he has been competitive without winning; the trip is no issue as he has scored over it before and jockey Toby Wynne's strong 21% strike rate at the track from 19 rides offers some hope.
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6Sauce Of Life53/100
Sauce Of Life is a useful performer who has shown little spark in two runs back from a long absence with figures of 1P/5-5. He has placed on good ground in the past but looks vulnerable on recent evidence, has failed to win or place in two previous tries at Perth, and the trip is a fresh question having never been successful over it; he drops in class today.
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7Le Grand Vert46/100
Le Grand Vert is a fair 10-year-old who has won twice at today's trip from 17 attempts and has placed four times from 14 starts on good ground. He arrives in modest recent form after a pulled-up effort last time with figures of 412P68 and makes his first appearance at Perth from a career total of 48 starts; trainer Noel C Kelly has an 11% strike rate here from 46 runs while jockey Sean Quinlan operates at 7% from 322 rides.
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8C'Mon So37/100
C'Mon So is a fair type who has shown some promise without landing a win in seven starts with recent figures of 696-64. He has run respectably in both visits to Perth but has failed to place and now steps up in trip having been beaten on his only attempt at this distance; the yard's modest 8% strike rate here and jockey Derek Fox's 9% record add little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Dalileo is the KTB Selection. He remains a useful performer with a fine record at Perth, where he has won four times, and at today's trip, where he has also been successful on four occasions. His recent form of -73117 shows he can still win races at this level, he is ideally suited by the strong pace that is likely to collapse late, and the trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track. The main dangers are Down Around, who arrives in decent form with strong yard and rider statistics at Perth, and Theirshegoes, who has placed here before and will also appreciate the way the race is run.
KTB Selection Dalileo
This is the narrative read of the 4:50 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Perth?
Dalileo has won here four times from 25 starts.
How does the strong pace shape affect the runners?
The strong pace, created by two or more habitual front-runners, could collapse late and is likely to favour hold-up horses.
Which trainers have the best strike rates at Perth in this field?
Gordon Elliott has a 28% strike rate at Perth from 817 runs, while Nicky Richards has a 15% strike rate from 652 runs.
Has any horse in the field won at today's trip?
Dalileo has won four times at today's trip, Le Grand Vert has won twice at today's trip, and Burgundy Man has scored over it before.
Which runners are suited by being held up in the race?
Dalileo, Theirshegoes, Midnight Moonshine, Sauce Of Life, Le Grand Vert and C'Mon So are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
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