What is Noel C. Kelly's strike rate?

Noel C. Kelly has won 63 of 789 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Noel C. Kelly do best at?

Sligo by strike rate: 6 wins from 38 runners (15.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Noel C. Kelly?

Mr O McGill, with 130 runners since 2022 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (20%).

Is Noel C. Kelly in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Noel C. Kelly's Fair A/E?

1.13, from 789 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Noel C. Kelly

789 runners in the last 5 seasons · 121 individual horses

As at 27 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 9.3% of 215 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 27 Oct 2026.

Last runner 4 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

63–789

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=789

161 (20%)

Placed

1.13

Fair A/E

n=789 · 0.91 incl. margin

−375.75

£1 level stake

n=789 at SP · −47.6%

£623k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 160 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.13). With a claiming rider up the record reads 12% (373 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 789 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 27 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Sep 30.5% when favourite Mr O McGill: 20% from 130 Claiming riders: 12.3% Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Sligo (15.8%, n=38), clear of the yard's 8% baseline. It is weakest at Navan (0% over 35 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 12.3% (n=373, Fair A/E 1.42), but debutants struggle at 2.4% (n=41, Fair A/E 0.82). Mr O McGill rides 16% of the entries and beats the yard's average (20% vs 8%, A/E 1.48) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Class 5 (24.4%, n=45). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the I.t.b.a Fillies Scheme E.B.F. Dawn Run Mares Novice Chase at Limerick (Mar 2013, £24,050). The stable star of the record: Mighty Whitey (IRE) — 9 wins from 75 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jun–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

7.1%−0.9

n=183 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −88.10

New recruits · first run for the yard

2.9%−5.1

n=68 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −60.05

Debutants · first career start

2.4%−5.6

n=41 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −31.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

3.4%−4.6

n=29 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −25.25

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

4.5%−3.5

n=44 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −32.00

When favourite

30.5%

n=59 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −2.82

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

12.3%+4.3

n=373 · A/E 1.42 · £1 −83.88

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.0

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Class 5 24.4% vs 8% · n=45

With Mr O McGill 20% vs 8% · n=130

On last-time-out winners 15.6% vs 8% · n=64

At Navan 0% vs 8% · n=35

At Fairyhouse 0% vs 8% · n=35

At Sligo 15.8% vs 8% · n=38

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 506 41 8.1% −265.80

Flat 173 9 5.2% −79.75

Chase 89 10 11.2% −19.95

NH Flat 21 3 14.3% −10.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 276 20 7.2% −134.20

Soft 213 20 9.4% −92.96

Good to Soft 144 15 10.4% −50.52

Standard (AW) 102 4 3.9% −61.50

Heavy 54 4 7.4% −36.57

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Downpatrick 116 6 5.2% −92.53

Dundalk (AW) 98 4 4.1% −57.50

Down Royal 87 4 4.6% −57.00

Cartmel 46 4 8.7% −29.43

Sligo 38 6 15.8% +7.00

Navan 35 0 0% −35.00

Fairyhouse 35 0 0% −35.00

Galway 33 0 0% −33.00

Punchestown 31 4 12.9% +10.50

Ayr 27 5 18.5% +19.42

Perth 22 4 18.2% −5.62

Ballinrobe 18 4 22.2% +13.75

Kilbeggan 17 4 23.5% +13.50

Bellewstown 16 0 0% −16.00

Thurles 15 1 6.7% −7.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 68 5 7.4% −49.08

Class 5 45 11 24.4% +1.93

Class 3 13 0 0% −13.00

Class 2 5 1 20% +0.00

Class 6 3 1 33.3% +23.00

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 72 20 27.8% 1.18 −5.82

2nd–3rd fav 109 22 20.2% 1.34 +6.57

4th–6th fav 169 13 7.7% 1.08 −61.50

7th+ in betting 439 8 1.8% 0.79 −315.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.7% completed · 595 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 89 82% 2 4 10 0 0

Hurdle 506 87.5% 2 3 55 2 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Gamigin (IRE)from James McAuley 30 4 9 16 May 26

Cave Court (IRE) 29 6 10 6 Apr 26

Herculaneum (IRE)from Joseph Patrick O'Brien 26 4 11 17 Jan 26

Gladiatorial (IRE)from Shane Nolan 25 1 5 26 Dec 24

Darkened (IRE)from Denis Gerard Hogan · then John C McConnell 24 2 7 14 Apr 25

Le Grand Vert (FR)from J P Dempsey 22 3 7 26 Sep 26

Garrick Painter (IRE)from Daniel James Murphy 21 2 4 7 Sep 26

Our Zebo (IRE) 21 3 7 31 Aug 26

Nakassama (IRE)from James McAuley 20 3 7 21 Aug 26

Chancer Dancer (IRE) 19 1 4 7 Aug 25

True Destiny (GB)from J J Lambe 16 0 5 15 Jan 26

Eagle Terrace (GB)from John Joseph Hanlon 16 2 3 26 Dec 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 121 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 43 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Denis Gerard Hogan (5) and James McAuley (4); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for C Byrnes (4); 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 3

Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

5108861291010727

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderMr O McGill

16% of all rides
20% SR · A/E 1.48

RiderRWSR£1

Mr O McGill 130 26 20% −23.30

Jody McGarvey 72 3 4.2% −50.00

Simon Torrens 65 1 1.5% −60.00

Conor Stone-Walsh 37 1 2.7% −27.00

Mr D McGill 31 5 16.1% +22.50

Killian Leonard 30 2 6.7% −9.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

143

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.30m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 17 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Charlie's Vic (IRE) — I.t.b.a Fillies Scheme E.B.F. Dawn Run Mares Novice Chase (grade 3) Limerick · Mar 2013 · Grade 3

£24,050

Nakassama (IRE) — Darley EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) Hamilton · Aug 2026 · Class 2

£20,616

Decor Irlandais (FR) — Live Streaming On The BoyleSports App Handicap Hurdle Killarney · Aug 2020

£12,390

Notable horses

Mighty Whitey (IRE) Mia's Anthem (IRE) Cave Court (IRE) Charlie's Vic (IRE) Angus Milan (IRE) Herculaneum (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Court Cave (IRE) 14% · 8–57

Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,938 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.

Dark Angel (IRE) 11.1% · 6–54

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,898 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Mastercraftsman (IRE) 7.7% · 3–39

Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,632 runs since 2008 (842 horses).

Getaway (GER) 5.3% · 2–38

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,930 runs since 2008 (1,028 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.3% from 133.

Fame And Glory (GB) 3.3% · 1–30

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,208 runs since 2008 (504 horses).

Australia (GB) 15.4% · 4–26

Progeny have won 11.1% of 5,656 runs since 2008 (564 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.5% from 108.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 27 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,809 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,809 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 29 June 2005 to 23 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Shoot To Kill (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Halloween Mid-Term Racing Next Week Apprentice Handicap7f · Standard · 14 ran 2nd 12/1

23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Tonightsagoodnight (IRE)J: Mr D McGill John Thomas McNamara Series (Q.R.) Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Yielding · 9 ran 1st 17/2

16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Tribal Moon (IRE)J: Sam Coen View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Handicap10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 7/2F

10 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Scary Askari (GB)J: Simon Torrens Protection & Prosperity Financial Services Supporting Louth GAA Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 15 ran 14th 40/1

10 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Undertheinfluence (IRE)J: Carl Millar Protection & Prosperity Financial Services Supporting Louth GAA Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 15 ran 11th 80/1

09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Shantou Show (IRE)J: Ms E Dunseath Northern Ireland On Course Bookmakers Association Handicap Steeplechase23.5f · Good · 14 ran 6th 11/1

09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Invincible Oscar (IRE)J: Mr O McGill CM Precision Components Handicap Hurdle17.5f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 10/11F

09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Mr Caulfield (IRE)J: Simon Torrens Denis Macauley Memorial Novice Handicap Hurdle17.5f · Good · 5 ran 5th 33/1

09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Lone Ash Lad (IRE)J: Simon Torrens Randox Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Good · 9 ran 8th 200/1

08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Prada's World (IRE)J: Shane B Kelly BOYLE Sports Handicap (Div II)8.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 4th 11/2

05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Midleton Rare (IRE)J: Ms E Dunseath Winter Festival November 28th & 29th Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 13 ran 11th 16/1

05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Unfortunatecharlie (IRE)J: Ms E Dunseath Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 9th 150/1

26 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Le Grand Vert (FR)J: Mr O McGill John & Terry Moriarty Memorial (Q.R.) Handicap Steeplechase24f · Good · 14 ran PU 16/1

25 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Tribal Moon (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Bookings Open For Christmas Parties At Dundalk Stadium Handicap10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 80/1

25 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Queen Leila (GB)J: Shane B Kelly Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 50/1

19 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Midleton Rare (IRE)J: Ms E Dunseath Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Ladies Handicap Hurdle21f · Good · 15 ran 10th 9/1

19 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Scary Askari (GB)J: Mr D McGill Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (Div I)19f · Good · 15 ran 14th 9/4F

19 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Undertheinfluence (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 16 ran 14th 200/1

19 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Fox Walk (IRE)J: Simon Torrens BAR 1 Betting 'Download Our App' Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 16 ran 12th 150/1

18 Sep 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Bresil Belle (IRE)J: Mr L P Shanahan Dunleath Flat Race18f · Good · 12 ran 11th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Noel C. Kelly's strike rate?: Noel C. Kelly has won 63 of 789 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Noel C. Kelly do best at?: Sligo by strike rate: 6 wins from 38 runners (15.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Noel C. Kelly?: Mr O McGill, with 130 runners since 2022 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (20%).
Is Noel C. Kelly in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Noel C. Kelly's Fair A/E?: 1.13, from 789 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.