1,277 runners
in the last 5 seasons · 134 individual horses
As at 21 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Non-runners: 7.3% of 288 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 21 Oct 2026.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 260 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.85).
Deterministic profile computed from 1,277 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance29.6% when favouriteBen Smith: 9% from 144Claiming riders: 6.3%Sends off the favourite in 4% of races
The read
It is weakest at Kelso (0% over 32 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=52, Fair A/E 0.00). Ben Smith rides 11% of the entries and edges the yard's average (9% vs 6.2%, A/E 1.32) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The stable star of the record: Glasses Up (USA) — 13 wins from 112 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.2%−1.0
n=172 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −91.25
New recruits · first run for the yard
1.8%−4.4
n=56 · A/E 0.41 · £1 −53.75
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.2
n=52 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −52.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
2.9%−3.3
n=34 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −29.67
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
6.3%+0.1
n=48 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −34.25
When favourite
29.6%
n=54 · A/E 1.11 · £1 +1.08
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.3%+0.1
n=462 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −147.75
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners15% vs 6.2% · n=80
With David Allan16.7% vs 6.2% · n=30
With William Shanahan0% vs 6.2% · n=63
With debutants0% vs 6.2% · n=52
With Ryan Mania11.7% vs 6.2% · n=77
At Kelso0% vs 6.2% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat677426.2%−327.13
Hurdle462296.3%−190.76
Chase10687.5%−40.12
NH Flat3200%−32.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good486377.6%−240.96
Good to Soft300155%−176.25
Soft267155.6%−111.92
Good to Firm11087.3%−41.88
Heavy6634.5%−38.00
Standard (AW)4812.1%+19.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Ayr532397.3%−232.63
Perth215188.4%−90.96
Musselburgh160116.9%−88.17
Hamilton8722.3%−75.00
Carlisle4924.1%−24.00
Newcastle (AW)4512.2%+22.00
Newcastle3213.1%−22.00
Kelso3200%−32.00
Hexham2827.1%−14.75
Cartmel2314.3%−14.00
Wetherby1900%−19.00
Catterick1715.9%−12.50
Sedgefield1100%−11.00
Haydock500%−5.00
Southwell (AW)300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 5442286.3%−198.09
Class 6383307.8%−127.38
Class 4370174.6%−246.37
Class 35435.6%−41.17
Class 22600%−26.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite731723.3%0.93−13.42
2nd–3rd fav1712715.8%0.97−8.59
4th–6th fav399287%0.93−120.00
7th+ in betting63471.1%0.43−448.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m289186.2%−165.92
2m1f – 2m4f250135.2%−92.84
1m2f – 1m4f179147.8%−84.63
6f – 7f17763.4%−77.00
1m – 1m1f14864.1%−100.75
Under 6f124129.7%−47.00
2m5f – 3m10198.9%−21.87
Over 3m9111.1%+0.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022216156.9%−90.00
2023295124.1%−223.09
2024270155.6%−150.75
2025258249.3%+11.20
2026238135.5%−137.37
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1,031757.3%−383.76
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners562315.5%−289.05
11-13 runners349185.2%−211.17
5-7 runners2402410%−81.29
14-16 runners9144.4%−50.50
17+ runners2114.8%+30.00
2-4 runners1417.1%+12.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 134 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 33 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Lucy Normile (3) and John Quinn (2); 27 had their first archived run for this yard.
5 have since run for another yard; 55 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 12
Only 12 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
35115125775610
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→
174
Archived wins
£1.70m
Prize money
2025
Best season · 24 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Buy Some Time (IRE) — Albert Bartlett Triple Crown Series Final Handicap Hurdle Punchestown · Apr 2025
Progeny have won 10.6% of 529 runs since 2008 (35 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 14.3% from 105. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.6% from 106.
Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,471 runs since 2008 (775 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11.1% from 959. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9.1% from 121.
Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,807 runs since 2008 (339 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 448. Weakest on Heavy going: 3.7% from 134. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 445.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 2,659 · newest first
The latest 50 of 2,659 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 24 May 2006 to 16 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is R. Mike Smith's strike rate?
R. Mike Smith has won 79 of 1,277 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.2% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does R. Mike Smith do best at?
Perth by strike rate: 18 wins from 215 runners (8.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for R. Mike Smith?
Ben Smith, with 144 runners since 2022 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (9%).
Is R. Mike Smith in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 12 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is R. Mike Smith's Fair A/E?
0.85, from 1,273 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
R. Mike Smith·SR 6.2%·A/E 0.85
KTB
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