3:00 Doncaster
The Betfred Howard Wright Doncaster Cup Stakes is a Group 2 contest over 2m1f197y on good to soft ground at Doncaster, featuring a compact but high-quality field of seven. The race lacks an obvious leader and is set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy could prove advantageous. KTB's Fit Scores identify Caballo De Mar as the top-rated on 61, with Beylerbeyi, Epic Poet and Berkshire Sundance completing the principals, all of whom are stepping up in class or trip.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead, the pace is likely to be steady and tactical rather than galloping. Most of the field are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question will be whether those racing more prominently can steal an advantage or if the closers will be able to weave their way through in the straight. The shape places extra emphasis on positioning and timing.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Caballo De Mar KTB Selection61/100
Caballo De Mar is a smart performer who has been consistent at a high level this year, recording two seconds from his last five starts. He steps up in trip for the first time today, which asks a fresh question, while this is also his first run at Doncaster. Trainer George Scott holds a solid 15% strike rate at the track from 106 runs and Oisin Murphy takes the ride on ground that has suited him before, with one win from three starts on good to soft. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall six. His recent form reads -22104 and he carries a KTB Fit Score of 61.
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2Beylerbeyi54/100
Beylerbeyi is a useful performer with a solid record at Doncaster, having won two of his four starts here. He acts on good to soft ground, with two wins and four places from eight runs, and he has won the only time he has tried today's trip. The step back up in distance from 1m6f asks a fresh question but looks within range given his career profile and high data confidence. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall eight. His recent form reads 360845 and he carries a KTB Fit Score of 54.
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3Epic Poet52/100
Epic Poet is a smart performer who has been mixing it at a decent level all year and arrives here off the back of a respectable sixth in a strong handicap at York. He steps up markedly in trip today, which asks a fresh question of him at age seven. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Doncaster from a large sample while Daniel Tudhope is 12% from 217 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall four. His recent form reads 534650 and he carries a KTB Fit Score of 52.
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4Berkshire Sundance50/100
Berkshire Sundance is a useful performer who arrives in solid nick after a string of respectable efforts in competitive handicaps. He drops back from 2m4½f to a trip he has never tried, which asks a fresh question, while he remains unproven on good to soft ground. Andrew Balding has a respectable 14% strike rate from 444 runs at Doncaster and P J McDonald is aboard for the first time. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall one. His recent form reads 011682 and he carries a KTB Fit Score of 50.
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5Ascending49/100
Ascending is a useful performer who has been out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground but steps up markedly in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question. His recent form reads 6-7064 and he carries a KTB Fit Score of 49.
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6Peace Belle46/100
Peace Belle is a useful performer who has been consistent in three runs this year, finishing no worse than fourth. She steps up markedly in trip today having last raced over 1m3f, which asks a fresh question of her. Her recent form reads 442 and she carries a KTB Fit Score of 46.
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7Winday45/100
Winday is a useful performer who landed a minor event last time after two placed efforts on the Flat. He steps up markedly in trip today having been beaten both previous starts at this distance, which asks a fresh question. His recent form reads 730-1 and he carries a KTB Fit Score of 45.
KTB verdict
Caballo De Mar stands out as the KTB Selection. He has been a model of consistency at a high level this season and the combination of George Scott's respectable record at Doncaster and Oisin Murphy in the saddle adds to his appeal on ground that has suited him in the past. The step up in trip and first visit to the track are the main unknowns, yet his overall profile gives him the edge. Beylerbeyi, with his proven course record and suitability for the trip, is the most obvious danger, while Epic Poet and Berkshire Sundance cannot be ruled out if the steadily-run race plays to their strengths.
KTB Selection Caballo De Mar
This is the narrative read of the 3:00 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip for the first time at age seven?
Epic Poet
How many wins has Beylerbeyi recorded at Doncaster?
Two of four starts
Which runner is unproven on good to soft ground?
Berkshire Sundance and Winday
Who rides the KTB Selection Caballo De Mar?
Oisin Murphy
What is the run-style of the majority of the field?
Held up — usually held up and produces its effort late
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