2:25 Doncaster
The 2026 Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes is a Group 2 contest over five furlongs at Doncaster on good to soft ground, featuring a competitive field of twelve two-year-olds. KTB's Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Carry The Flag narrowly heading the numbers on 63, just ahead of Sale Shark on 62, while the remainder sit between 58 and 42. The race brings together smart and useful performers with varied experience at the minimum trip, and the O'Brien/Moore combination adds further interest on a card where the yard has a 14% strike rate at the track from 231 runners.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, as two or more habitual front-runners are present and the shape suggests the leaders could go hard early. Carry The Flag tends to make the running or race prominently, while Fast Track is also inclined to go forward and Flann Sunna usually races handily. This setup is likely to test those up with the pace and could collapse late, favouring hold-up horses such as Sale Shark, Crownbreaker, Final Objective and Pershaada, posing the key question of whether the prominent runners can withstand the late challengers.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Carry The Flag KTB Selection63/100
Carry The Flag is a smart colt whose recent record stands out with a win and three placings from his last six starts. He has already won twice over five furlongs and now drops back to the minimum trip from six, though he remains unproven on good to soft ground. The A P O'Brien and Ryan Moore teaming is always noteworthy, and the yard posts a 14% strike rate at Doncaster from a solid sample of 231 runners while Moore himself has a 19% strike rate at the track from 480 rides. Drawn in stall 12, he tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence in that assessment. His overall profile suggests he will be thereabouts once more in a race where his ability is right up to the mark.
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2Sale Shark62/100
Sale Shark is a smart performer who has shown his best form over this five-furlong trip, winning two of his three starts at the distance. He has already won on good to soft ground from a single attempt and looks well drawn in stall one at a venue where his trainer Hugo Palmer has a solid 14% strike rate from 187 runs. Recent form has been a bit up and down but the class read remains clear and the data confidence is high. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he is ideally placed to benefit if the strong pace collapses as expected. Oisin Murphy takes the ride on a horse whose trip suitability and draw both appeal strongly.
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3Crownbreaker58/100
Crownbreaker is a useful performer who has shown strong form at this track and has already won over today's five-furlong trip. He has won on good to soft ground from just two attempts and now drops back from six furlongs, a move that looks sensible given his record at the shorter distance. The Kevin Philippart De Foy yard holds a solid 16% strike rate at Doncaster from 38 runs, while David Egan has a 16% strike rate at the track from 194 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that run-style, he is well equipped to come from off the pace if the race develops as the shape suggests. His course-and-distance affinity adds to his claims.
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4Final Objective58/100
Final Objective is a smart two-year-old with solid recent form that includes a win and a second from his last two starts. He drops back to five furlongs for the first time today, which poses a fresh question of him having been campaigned at longer distances. Trainer Hamad Al Jehani has a strong 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 13 runs, and James Doyle is in the saddle. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he should be suited by the strong pace likely to unfold. His placed effort on good to soft from a single start shows he handles the ground, and he enters the reckoning as one of the more interesting contenders.
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5Pershaada56/100
Pershaada is a smart performer with a solid recent record that includes a win at today's trip. He has shown strong form at this track and the Richard Hannon yard's 13% strike rate at Doncaster from a large sample of 655 runs adds a layer of confidence. Going suitability remains unknown after just one run on good to soft where he failed to place. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he is another who could be helped by the anticipated strong pace. Sean Levey takes the ride on a horse whose ability at the minimum trip has already been proven.
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6Fast Track55/100
Fast Track is a useful performer who has shown good consistency with form figures of 320122 from six starts. He has already won at this trip, holds strong course connections through the Andrew Balding yard which has a 14% strike rate at Doncaster from 444 runs, yet remains unproven on good to soft ground. Tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence.
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7Flann Sunna55/100
Flann Sunna is a useful performer who has won two of his three starts and looks well drawn in stall two. He drops back to five furlongs, a distance he has not tried, which asks a new question of him. The Simon & Ed Crisford yard has a 19% strike rate at Doncaster from 67 runs while William Buick is booked, but he remains unproven on good to soft. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead with medium confidence.
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8Agamemnon52/100
Agamemnon is a useful performer who has shown consistency, winning once and placing three times from six starts. Dropping back to five furlongs looks a positive as he has already won at the trip from three attempts, though the Richard Hughes yard's modest 8% strike rate at Doncaster from 40 runs is a slight negative. Typically settles in midfield with medium confidence and has one run on good to soft without placing.
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9Tokaido50/100
Tokaido brings strong recent form with four wins from six starts and has already won both starts at this trip. Stepping up in class having dropped back from six furlongs, he is lightly raced overall. The Amy Murphy yard records a 10% strike rate at Doncaster from 63 runs and he has placed once from two runs on good to soft. Typically settles in midfield though with limited evidence.
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10El Floridita49/100
El Floridita is a useful performer who has already won over this trip and showed strong form when second at this track earlier in the season. Recent efforts have been patchy and he now tries first-time headgear after finishing down the field in two starts. The Nigel Tinkler yard's modest 6% strike rate at Doncaster adds caution, and he has one run on good to soft without placing plus a fifth here on his sole course visit.
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11Ronson46/100
Ronson is a useful performer who has already won over today's five-furlong trip. He showed strong form when landing a race here earlier this season but has been below that level in two runs since. The Nigel Tinkler yard's modest 6% strike rate at Doncaster from a large sample is a negative, and he has one run on good to soft without placing.
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12In The Black42/100
In The Black is a fair performer who showed useful speed when winning over today's five-furlong trip on debut before finishing midfield in a stronger race over six furlongs. He drops back to the distance that suited him best last time. The Geoff Oldroyd yard's modest 4% strike rate at Doncaster from 152 runs is a negative, and he has one run on good to soft without placing.
KTB verdict
Carry The Flag is named the KTB Selection and his smart level of ability, proven record at five furlongs and the powerful O'Brien/Moore axis give him every chance of adding to his tally. He has a strong recent record featuring a win and three placings from his last six starts, and while the good to soft ground is an unknown he has the class to cope. The main dangers are Sale Shark, whose trip affinity, draw in stall one and proven effectiveness on the surface make him a major threat from off the pace, and Crownbreaker, who brings strong course form, a win at the trip and a record on good to soft. Final Objective and Pershaada are also likely to be in the mix if the race pans out as the strong-pace shape indicates.
KTB Selection Carry The Flag
This is the narrative read of the 2:25 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are proven winners over the five-furlong trip?
Carry The Flag has won twice at five furlongs, Sale Shark has won two of three starts at the trip, Crownbreaker has won over five furlongs, Pershaada has a win at the trip, Fast Track has won at the trip, Agamemnon has won at the trip from three attempts, Tokaido has won both starts at the trip, El Floridita has won over the trip, Ronson has won over five furlongs and In The Black won over five furlongs on debut.
Which runners have previous experience of good to soft ground?
Sale Shark has a win from one run on good to soft, Crownbreaker has a win from two runs on good to soft, Final Objective has placed once from one run on good to soft, Pershaada has one run on good to soft without placing, Agamemnon has one run on good to soft without placing, Tokaido has placed once from two runs on good to soft, El Floridita has one run on good to soft without placing, Ronson has one run on good to soft without placing and In The Black has one run on good to soft without placing.
How does the race's pace shape influence the runners' prospects?
The strong pace likely with two or more habitual front-runners could collapse late, favouring hold-up horses such as Sale Shark, Crownbreaker, Final Objective, Pershaada, El Floridita and Ronson, while Carry The Flag and Fast Track tend to make the running or race prominently and Flann Sunna usually races handily.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at Doncaster according to the supplied data?
Hamad Al Jehani has a 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 13 runs, Simon & Ed Crisford have a 19% strike rate from 67 runs, Kevin Philippart De Foy has a 16% strike rate from 38 runs, Hugo Palmer has a 14% strike rate from 187 runs, A P O'Brien has a 14% strike rate from 231 runs and Andrew Balding has a 14% strike rate from 444 runs.
Which horses are dropping back in distance for this race?
Crownbreaker drops back from 6f, Final Objective drops back to 5f for the first time, Tokaido is dropping back from 6f, Flann Sunna drops back to an untried 5f and In The Black drops back to 5f from 6f.
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