3:38 Pontefract
This Class 4 maiden at Pontefract over 1m6y on good ground brings together a small field of largely unexposed or modest types. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the top four all rated between 48 and 53, underlining a race where progressive maiden form and yard record at the track will matter most. With no obvious leader in a steadily-run, tactical affair, the ability to produce an effort at the right time from a handy position looks key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay. Several runners, including the selection, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, which could make the race a test of timing in the straight. The key question is whether those coming from off the pace can pick up quickly enough in what is expected to be a race without an obvious pace angle.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Devil's Brigade KTB Selection53/100
Devil's Brigade is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form. He has finished second on all three starts this year, including over today's trip, and dropping back from 1m2f looks a sensible move given he has already placed at 1m. Ed Dunlop brings a solid 20% strike rate at Pontefract from 187 runs while Rowan Scott has an 11% strike rate at the track from 87 rides. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late. He remains unproven on good ground with no runs on the surface and has no course form on record.
-
2Fan Me50/100
Fan Me represents William Haggas, who has a solid 21% strike rate at Pontefract from a big sample of 275 runs, and is ridden by Cieren Fallon who boasts a 33% strike rate at the track from 18 rides. The colt has only two career starts to his name and showed little in them, finishing seventh then pulled up. He steps up to 1m for the first time, which poses a fresh question on very limited evidence. He remains unproven on good ground with no runs on the surface and has no course form on record.
-
3Morty Robinson50/100
Morty Robinson has shown very little in two starts this year and remains lightly raced overall. Brian Ellison's yard has a solid 10% strike rate at Pontefract from a large sample of 343 runs and Cam Hardie has a 9% strike rate at the track from 208 rides. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late, though the evidence is limited. Both trip and ground are unproven questions given the small sample, with just one run on good yielding no win or place, and he has no course form on record.
-
4River Nile48/100
River Nile is a modest performer who has shown some ability in two placed efforts on turf this year. He drops in class and the trip looks about right while he remains open to a bit more improvement. Andrew Balding's record at the track is modest at 12% strike rate from 82 runs, though Jason Watson has a solid 17% strike rate at Pontefract from 36 rides. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late. He remains unproven on good ground with no runs on the surface and has no course form on record.
-
5Casement Park45/100
Casement Park has only one career run behind him and the data confidence is low so any assessment has to be cautious. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 19 runs at Pontefract while the trip is a fresh question after his debut over 1m3f, and he drops in class.
-
6L'isle De Bois45/100
L'isle De Bois is a newcomer with no racecourse form and low data confidence. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Pontefract from 68 runs and the pedigree by Aclaim carries a 10% overall win rate.
-
7Jetpack Jimmy41/100
Jetpack Jimmy has been well beaten in both starts to date and has only two career runs to go on. The yard's record at Pontefract is poor at 2% from 61 runs while trip and ground both remain open questions with such a small sample.
KTB verdict
Devil's Brigade is the KTB Selection. He has shown consistent placed form this year, including seconds over today's trip and at 1m, and the drop back in distance from 1m2f looks sensible for a horse who has already placed at the shorter trip. Ed Dunlop's solid 20% strike rate at Pontefract adds to the appeal in a race where being able to produce a late effort should suit his run-style. His main dangers are likely to come from Fan Me, who brings the powerful Haggas/Fallon combination to the race, and River Nile, who has shown placed form and remains open to improvement.
KTB Selection Devil's Brigade
This is the narrative read of the 3:38 Pontefract. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Pontefract racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Pontefract results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the steadily-run pace shape favour being handy?
The race lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
How many runs has Devil's Brigade had this year and what are his placings?
Devil's Brigade has finished second on all three starts this year.
What is William Haggas's strike rate at Pontefract?
William Haggas has a 21% strike rate at Pontefract from 275 runs.
Why is River Nile dropping in class significant?
River Nile is dropping in class having shown some ability in two placed efforts on turf this year.
What is the trainer strike rate at Pontefract for the yard of Casement Park?
The yard of Casement Park has a 0% strike rate at Pontefract from 19 runs.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies