2:48 Listowel
The 2:48 at Listowel is a competitive Kinisla Cheestrings Irish EBF Mares Hurdle over 2m4f on good ground, with a small but select field of five. KTB's Fit Scores separate the principals clearly, headed by Majestic Force on 66, followed by Easter Bonnet at 51 and Le Nez Creux on 48, with the remainder closely bunched in the mid-40s. The race features a mix of experience levels, trip variations and lightly-raced profiles, all set against the backdrop of an uncontested lead that could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader scenario with medium confidence, where one horse is expected to secure an uncontested lead that closers may struggle to reel in. Easter Bonnet, who tends to make the running or race on the pace, looks the most likely to take up that role from the outset. Majestic Force, a prominent runner who usually races handily, should track closely in second or third, while the held-up types Le Nez Creux and Sea Coral will be further back, and Tumbling In settles in midfield. The key question is whether the clear leader can maintain the advantage or if the prominent tracker can close effectively over the stiff 2m4f.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Majestic Force KTB Selection66/100
Majestic Force stands out as a high-class performer with a solid career record, including a win at today's trip from just two attempts. Dropping back from 3m having shown smart form over longer distances, the eight-year-old now faces a fresh question about the shorter trip. Henry de Bromhead's yard posts a 16% strike rate at Listowel from a big sample with an A/E of 1.04, while Darragh O'Keeffe knows the track well despite an 8% strike rate. The horse's recent form reads 52615/ and he is unproven on good ground with no course form on record. As the KTB Selection on a Fit Score of 66, his prominent run-style should see him ideally placed to challenge for the lead that is likely to go uncontested.
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2Easter Bonnet51/100
Easter Bonnet is a smart performer who has shown useful form on his better days, including a win on this ground from just three starts. Stepping up in trip for the first time, the five-year-old also sports first-time headgear which adds an unknown element. Willie Mullins holds a 19% strike rate at Listowel from a huge sample with an A/E of 0.84, though Brian Hayes is yet to register a winner from only 12 rides at the track. Recent form of P-0414 underlines his ability on good ground where he is 1-3. His front-running tendencies make him the obvious candidate to set the uncontested pace that the race shape suggests.
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3Le Nez Creux48/100
Le Nez Creux has shown fair form over shorter trips, finishing second in a handicap at Down Royal last season before a modest return over 2m2f. Stepping up in distance for the first time in a while, the five-year-old has only limited experience on good ground with one run yielding no win or place. Gavin Cromwell's 11% strike rate at Listowel from 198 runs comes with an A/E of 0.96, and Keith Donoghue holds an 11% strike rate at the track from 63 rides. Recent form reads 3152-5 and his held-up run-style with limited evidence means he will be produced late, potentially at a disadvantage given the lone-leader pace shape.
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4Tumbling In46/100
Tumbling In is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order having won his last two starts including at this trip, with recent form of 43-331. He has shown consistent placed form at Listowel without winning, including two runs here for 3rd and 4th, while the yard's modest 5% strike rate at the track from 520 runs is a negative. His mid-division run-style should see him settle comfortably, though his effectiveness on good ground remains untested despite one placed effort from one start.
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5Sea Coral45/100
Sea Coral has shown enough in 11 starts to suggest there is more to come as a lightly-raced four-year-old, with recent form of /-. Stepping up markedly in trip from 1m5f, which asks a fresh question of her stamina, she is 1-4 on good ground. Mrs J. Harrington holds a solid 12% strike rate at Listowel from 413 runs, and her held-up run-style with high confidence means she will be towards the rear in a race where an uncontested lead could be hard to peg back.
KTB verdict
Majestic Force emerges as the KTB Selection with a clear Fit Score edge on 66. His high-class ability, solid record at the trip and prominent run-style position him perfectly to track the likely uncontested leader and strike at the right moment. Easter Bonnet is the obvious danger as the probable front-runner with smart form on good ground, while Le Nez Creux and the in-form Tumbling In cannot be entirely dismissed despite their respective trip and track negatives.
KTB Selection Majestic Force
This is the narrative read of the 2:48 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to secure the uncontested lead?
Easter Bonnet, whose front-running tendencies align with the lone-leader pace shape.
How does the KTB Selection's trip change compare to the rest of the field?
Majestic Force drops back from 3m having won at today's trip from two attempts, while Easter Bonnet and Le Nez Creux step up in trip and Sea Coral steps up markedly from 1m5f.
What is the trainer strike rate at Listowel for the yard of the KTB Selection?
Henry de Bromhead has a 16% strike rate at Listowel with an A/E of 1.04 from 262 runs.
Which runner has first-time headgear?
Easter Bonnet.
How many of the field have previous course form at Listowel?
Only Tumbling In, who has recorded a 3rd and a 4th in two runs here.
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