2:18 Listowel
The 2:18 at Listowel is a 3-Y-O Hurdle over 2m on good ground with an eleven-runner field that lacks established hurdlers of real substance. Several newcomers and lightly raced types line up, meaning pedigree, sales background and trainer form at the venue will carry significant weight. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, underlining a race of modest standard where experience and suitability to the steadily-run conditions could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in the field the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy early will pay dividends. Most principals and field runners are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question will be whether those capable of racing prominently can seize an uncontested advantage or whether the race will turn into a sprint for the line off a slow gallop. The lack of confirmed front-running talent makes positioning from the outset critical.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Danny Power KTB Selection52/100
Danny Power is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has a solid 19% strike rate from 69 runs at Listowel and the jockey knows the track well. Pedigree and sales background will carry most of the weight here given the low data confidence. Connections will be hoping the colt can translate his unseen potential into a positive debut effort in a race that lacks depth. Mark Walsh's 10% strike rate at the venue from 210 rides offers some reassurance despite the modest combined trainer-jockey figures. Being a first-timer in a steadily-run contest may not be ideal, yet the trainer's local record remains a notable plus.
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2Minella Buoy50/100
Minella Buoy has placed in all three runs on good ground and is proven at this trip without winning. He steps up from 1m4f today which asks a fresh question of him and his sole course run produced a poor 9th. The trainer holds a solid 15% strike rate from 33 runs at Listowel. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be reliant on the race unfolding to suit those coming from off the pace in what is set to be a tactical affair. The placed form on good ground is a positive, yet the lack of a win and the previous Listowel disappointment temper expectations. Daniel King's partnership with the yard shows a reasonable 18% strike rate from 22 runs.
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3Sonny Corleone50/100
Sonny Corleone has shown enough in five runs over shorter trips to suggest he is not without ability though he remains lightly raced overall. He steps up to 2m for the first time today which asks a fresh question of his stamina. Gordon Elliott has a 13% strike rate from 323 runs at Listowel while Sam Ewing's record at the track is not supplied. Usually held up, he will need the steadily-run race to develop in his favour. The yard's strong local presence is a clear asset in a race where experience could be at a premium. With only modest placed form to date the step up in trip remains the chief unknown.
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4Did Tell49/100
Did Tell makes his debut. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 35 runs at Listowel, which is a clear negative on home soil. With no racecourse form available and only low data confidence, the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background that are not detailed here. By Shirocco, the colt's sire has an 11% overall win rate from 9369 runners which at least offers a statistical baseline. Mark McDonagh's 15% strike rate at the venue from 46 rides provides one of the stronger rider-based angles in the race. Connections will be hoping for a respectable first effort but the trainer's local record is a notable concern.
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5Hello Garda48/100
Hello Garda has shown some ability with a win and a third from his last three starts and has already won over today's 2m trip. He drops back in distance after his latest run and acts on good ground having scored on it from just two attempts. The yard's modest 6% strike rate at Listowel from a large sample is a negative. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will require the race to pan out favourably in a steadily-run contest. The recent form figures of 31U indicate flashes of promise mixed with mishap. Paddy Hanlon's 5lb claim may help offset the yard's modest local record.
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6Dunmore44/100
Dunmore has just a single run on the board and steps up markedly in trip today from 1m4f to 2m, which asks a fresh question of him. The yard's modest 8% strike rate at Listowel from a large sample offers no particular encouragement here. With so little evidence to go on this assessment must be treated with real caution.
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7Wipeawayyourtears42/100
Wipeawayyourtears is a modest performer who has shown little in eight starts and now tries a new trip and first-time headgear. Has a win and a place from four runs on good ground but that was over much shorter. Trainer has a modest 4% strike rate from 24 runs at Listowel.
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8Chairmanforlife42/100
Chairmanforlife has shown very little so far and arrives off the back of a pulled-up effort. The drop back to 2m poses a fresh question while the yard records a solid 12% strike rate from 413 runs at Listowel. With only four career runs the horse remains not fully exposed though the overall picture is modest.
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9Julie's Moon39/100
Julie's Moon is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer the only pointers here and the yard's modest 8% strike-rate at Listowel from 52 runs suggests limited encouragement. Jockey John Shinnick has yet to record a winner at the track.
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10Premier Princess38/100
Premier Princess steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m4f. The move asks a fresh question of a horse with only five career starts and limited overall exposure. Trainer Denis Gerard Hogan has a 5% strike rate from 190 runs at Listowel.
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11Connor Of Mali37/100
Connor Of Mali has shown little so far with a recent form string of P9U4 and remains a modest maiden after five runs. He drops back to 2m having failed to make an impact at the trip in two previous starts. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate from 36 runs at Listowel adds to the negatives.
KTB verdict
Danny Power is the KTB Selection in a race where so many runners bring limited hurdling experience or modest form. The selection's debut effort will rest heavily on pedigree and the yard's healthy 19% strike rate at Listowel, with Mark Walsh an assured booking. Main dangers are headed by Minella Buoy, who brings consistent placed form on good ground, and Sonny Corleone who represents a powerful stable and has shown enough ability to suggest he can be competitive if the longer trip suits. Hello Garda supplies the most pertinent recent form and a previous 2m success, yet the yard's modest local record counts against him.
KTB Selection Danny Power
This is the narrative read of the 2:18 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the race expected to be tactical?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence and most runners are held-up types, pointing to a steadily-run affair where being handy should pay.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Listowel for the selection Danny Power?
John Queally has a 19% strike rate at Listowel from 69 runs with an A/E of 1.44.
Which horse has already won over today's 2m trip?
Hello Garda has already won over today's 2m trip and acts on good ground.
What is Gordon Elliott's strike rate at Listowel in this contest?
Gordon Elliott has a 13% strike rate at Listowel from 323 runs with an A/E of 0.9.
How many placed efforts has Minella Buoy recorded on good ground?
Minella Buoy has placed in all three runs on good ground.
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