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Jockey profile

Brian Hayes

1,357 rides in the last 5 seasons · 597 individual horses
As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride 3 days ago 100% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
120–1,357
Wins / Runs
8.8%
Strike rate
n=1,357
350 (26%)
Placed
1.01
Fair A/E
n=1,357 · 0.82 incl. margin
−518.20
£1 level stake
n=1,357 at SP · −38.2%
£2.89m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
12.3%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 270 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.01). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (159 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,357 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 7 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Aug Fresh horses: 9.4% 46.5% when favourite W P Mullins: 11.5% from 426 LTO winners: 17% Rides the favourite in 7% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Killarney (19.5%, n=41), clear of the rider's 8.8% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 17% (n=159, Fair A/E 1.22), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.8% (n=690, Fair A/E 0.78). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 5% strike, Fair A/E 0.70 and −277.05 to a £1 stake over 523 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. W P Mullins supplies 31% of the rides and edges the rider's average (11.5% vs 8.8%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly beyond 3m — 1.8% over 56 rides, 7pts below the baseline. 33 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase at Cheltenham (Mar 2023, £67,582). The standout partner of the record: Impervious (IRE) — 6 wins from 9 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jun–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.8% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
5%−3.8
n=523 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −277.05
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
17%+8.2
n=159 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −43.02
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
9.4%+0.6
n=341 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −149.37
When favourite
46.5%
n=101 · A/E 1.35 · £1 +12.14
Big fields · 14+ runners
4.8%−4.0
n=690 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −494.97
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.7%−1.1
n=259 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −99.30

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With David Harry Kelly 21.6% vs 8.8% · n=37
With C A Murphy 18.9% vs 8.8% · n=95
On last-time-out winners 17% vs 8.8% · n=159
At Killarney 19.5% vs 8.8% · n=41
With debutants 1.6% vs 8.8% · n=62
Beyond 3m 1.8% vs 8.8% · n=56
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 944 77 8.2% −337.51
Chase 399 41 10.3% −172.52
NH Flat 10 2 20% −4.17
Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 529 42 7.9% −171.13
Good 298 30 10.1% −141.41
Heavy 275 30 10.9% −30.08
Good to Soft 254 18 7.1% −174.58
Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown 126 12 9.5% −33.47
Fairyhouse 119 7 5.9% −78.50
Tramore 94 12 12.8% −45.79
Leopardstown 75 2 2.7% −36.00
Wexford 73 8 11% −29.50
Cork 70 6 8.6% −44.13
Naas 66 4 6.1% −31.75
Navan 65 8 12.3% −9.83
Limerick 60 5 8.3% −39.25
Galway 60 5 8.3% −37.34
Clonmel 57 4 7% −28.67
Kilbeggan 56 5 8.9% +4.25
Tipperary 49 6 12.2% −4.83
Killarney 41 8 19.5% −17.19
Gowran Park 41 4 9.8% +73.73

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 290 20 6.9% −130.30
Class 4 12 2 16.7% −7.79
Class 2 10 2 20% −3.97
Class 3 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 5 5 2 40% +0.53

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 113 52 46% 1.40 +20.02
2nd–3rd fav 245 38 15.5% 0.97 −67.22
4th–6th fav 411 18 4.4% 0.64 −250.00
7th+ in betting 588 12 2% 0.81 −221.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
85.8% completed · 1,343 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 399 79.4% 15 14 49 2 2
Hurdle 944 88.5% 27 8 62 4 8
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Linden Arden (IRE) 21 5 9 22 Mar 26
May Call You Back (GB) 17 5 8 4 Apr 26
Glen Kiln (IRE) 16 3 5 10 Oct 26
Lake Chad (IRE) 15 1 7 16 May 25
Macs Charm (IRE) 15 4 6 21 Apr 25
Carrolls Cottage (IRE) 15 0 4 17 Feb 24
Good As Hell (IRE) 13 3 4 15 Oct 23
Karl Des Tourelles (FR) 12 1 4 30 Apr 26
Garcon Doux (IRE) 12 0 3 3 Nov 24
Tingarran Express (IRE) 12 1 7 9 Aug 24
One Big Boum (IRE) 11 2 2 7 May 26
Winter Fog (IRE) 11 1 3 29 Dec 25
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 597 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 9
Only 9 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
98116813111231576
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardW P Mullins
31% of all rides
11.5% SR · A/E 1.01
TrainerRWSR£1
W P Mullins 426 49 11.5% −179.43
Philip Fenton 183 13 7.1% −7.24
John C McConnell 113 4 3.5% −104.64
C A Murphy 95 18 18.9% −13.73
Liam P Cusack 52 6 11.5% −30.67
David Harry Kelly 37 8 21.6% +63.95
Andrew McNamara 30 2 6.7% −21.30
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
306
Archived wins
33
Pattern / graded wins
£5.65m
Prize money
2021
Best season · 44 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Impervious (IRE) — Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase (Registered As The Liberthine Mares' Chase) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2023 · Grade 2
£67,582
Chapeau De Soleil (IRE) — SBK Gold Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Punchestown · May 2024 · Listed
£59,000
Western Diego (IRE) — Bet With Tote Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Fairyhouse · Jan 2026 · Grade 3
£59,000
Notable horses
Impervious (IRE) Linden Arden (IRE) May Call You Back (GB) Zanoosh (IRE) Conduct Yourself (IRE) Macs Charm (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Walk In The Park (IRE) 15% · 12–80
Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,044 runs since 2011 (707 horses).
Westerner (GB) 7.1% · 3–42
Progeny have won 12.2% of 11,859 runs since 2009 (945 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.
Jet Away (GB) 14.6% · 6–41
Progeny have won 11.2% of 2,548 runs since 2018 (275 horses).
Shirocco (GER) 9.8% · 4–41
Progeny have won 11.1% of 9,189 runs since 2010 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.
Shantou (USA) 20% · 8–40
Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,836 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.
Doyen (IRE) 5.3% · 2–38
Progeny have won 11.6% of 7,381 runs since 2009 (606 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,264 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,264 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 June 2005 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Thurman (IRE)T: C A Murphy Jim Ryan Racecourse Services Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20f · Yielding · 13 ran 5th 16/1
04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Le Roi Du Livet (FR)T: Philip Fenton Botanica International Rated Novice Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 8 ran 5th 5/1
03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Wolfhill (IRE)T: David Harry Kelly William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div II)20f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 7th 18/1
03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Genuine Article (GB)T: Gerard Keane Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 11th 100/1
01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Mailloche (FR)T: W. P. Mullins Paddy Power From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 4th 7/2
25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Rebel Reba (IRE)T: W. P. Mullins Glenlo Abbey Hotel & Estate Maiden Hurdle21.5f · Soft · 12 ran 7th 9/2
25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Shellrunforbriggs (IRE)T: Michael Winters Medical Technology Ireland Expo Galway Handicap Hurdle16f · Soft · 8 ran 2nd 4/1
25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Bigbraveboy (IRE)T: James William Hannon Brasserie On The Corner Handicap Steeplechase18f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 4th 33/1
25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Chart Topper (FR)T: W. P. Mullins Gerry Coyne Memorial Irish EBF Beginners Steeplechase22.5f · Soft To Heavy · 6 ran 1st 10/11F
23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Magic Hands Noel (IRE)T: Gerard Keane End Of An Era Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran PU 10/1
23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Ronnie's Rascal (IRE)T: W. P. Mullins Sligo Fillies Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Yielding · 13 ran 6th 2/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Katie Can't Count (IRE)T: W. P. Mullins Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 3rd 17/2
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Straight Home (IRE)T: W. P. Mullins Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Beginners Steeplechase19.5f · Good To Yielding · 4 ran 4th 18/1
14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Boo Radley (IRE)T: W. P. Mullins TRM Nutrition - No.1 In Europe, Trusted Worldwide Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 13 ran 8th 14/1
10 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Glen Kiln (IRE)T: David Harry Kelly Winter Festival Early Bird Tickets On Sale Now Beginners Steeplechase16.5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 4/9F
09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) River Tara (IRE)T: C A Murphy McGrady Financial Services Beginners Steeplechase19.5f · Good · 8 ran PU 18/1
08 Oct 26 Tramore (IRE) Lunar Majesty (IRE)T: C A Murphy Waterford Greenway Beginners Steeplechase20.5f · Yielding · 12 ran 7th 12/1
08 Oct 26 Tramore (IRE) Ronnie's Rascal (IRE)T: W. P. Mullins Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Yielding · 7 ran 3rd 13/8
06 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Road To Home (IRE)T: W. P. Mullins BOYLE Sports Shop At Galway Racecourse Beginners Steeplechase18f · Yielding To Soft · 8 ran 1st 9/2
05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Rebel Reba (IRE)T: W. P. Mullins Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 10 ran 6th 5/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0) · to 3 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Brian Hayes's strike rate?
Brian Hayes has won 120 of 1,357 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.8% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Brian Hayes do best at?
Killarney by strike rate: 8 wins from 41 rides (19.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Brian Hayes ride most for?
W P Mullins, with 426 rides since 2022 — 31% of the total. That pairing has won 49 (11.5%).
Is Brian Hayes in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 9 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Brian Hayes's Fair A/E?
1.01, from 1,357 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 7 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).