4:18 Listowel
The 4:18 at Listowel is a rated novice steeplechase over 2m1f150y on good ground, featuring a compact but competitive field of five. KTB's Fit Scores separate the runners modestly at the top, with the selection on 66 and the next two clustered around the low-50s, pointing to a race where class, recent form and the ability to handle a strong pace will matter most. Three of the principals have front-running or prominent tendencies, while the remainder prefer to come from off the pace, and with no course winners in the line-up the track itself offers limited pointers.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given that two habitual front-runners line up and both tend to make the running or race prominently. That early speed could set the race up for those racing off the pace, with the pace shape suggesting the possibility of a late collapse that would play to hold-up types. The key question is whether the prominent pair can dictate matters and maintain their advantage, or whether the race will fall apart in the closing stages to suit Sky Lord, Luker's Tipple and Some Song.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ocastle Des Mottes KTB Selection66/100
Ocastle Des Mottes arrives as a high-class performer with strong recent form, recording two wins from his last three starts and boasting three victories at today's trip. The seven-year-old has placed on his only start on good ground, confirming he handles the surface, and he benefits from the booking of Paul Townend. Mullins holds a 19% strike rate at Listowel from 744 runs while Townend is 22% from 240 rides at the venue, both respectable figures from sizeable samples. His front-running style fits the shape of the race, though he has no previous experience of the track. Overall he looks the one to beat on KTB's assessment.
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2Apple's Of Bresil52/100
Apple's Of Bresil possesses useful ability and has shown it on good ground with two wins from three starts, most recently adding another success to his record. Dropping back in trip to an untried 2m1f150y introduces a fresh question, yet the yard's 20% strike rate at Listowel from a small sample of ten runs provides some encouragement. Sean Flanagan takes the ride, though his 6% strike rate at the track from 220 rides is modest. Like the selection he tends to race prominently or make the running, which could prove important in a race expected to be strongly run. No previous course form exists to guide us.
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3Sky Lord51/100
Sky Lord is another high-class performer who brings solid recent form, including a win last time out. Stepping up in trip today poses a new question while this represents his first run at Listowel. Henry de Bromhead has a 16% strike rate at the venue from 262 runs and the horse has won his only start on good ground, so the surface should not be an issue. Darragh O'Keeffe's 8% strike rate at Listowel from 163 rides is on the low side. As a hold-up performer he is well suited to the anticipated strong pace and the possibility of it collapsing late.
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4Luker's Tipple51/100
Luker's Tipple comes into the race in solid form with three wins from his last six starts and has won three times from nine runs on good ground. Dropping back to a trip he has won twice from three starts is a positive, though his sole run at Listowel resulted in a modest sixth. Gavin Cromwell's 11% strike rate at the track from 198 runs is modest, while Keith Donoghue is 11% from 63 rides here. A hold-up type with high-confidence in that run-style, he should be suited if the pace collapses.
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5Some Song47/100
Some Song has shown ability during a light career, winning two of his three starts before a pulled-up effort on his final outing last season. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question. Henry de Bromhead's 16% strike rate at Listowel from 262 runs is a positive, but Mike O'Connor has managed only a 3% strike rate from 29 rides at the venue. A hold-up performer on limited evidence, he remains unproven on good ground.
KTB verdict
Ocastle Des Mottes stands out on KTB's numbers and is taken as the selection. A high-class performer in good heart with two wins from his last three starts, a proven record at the trip and the benefit of Townend in the saddle, he has the class and the prominent run-style to take a hand in a race that could be strongly run. Sky Lord and Apple's Of Bresil look the main dangers, the former ideally positioned off a strong pace and the latter bringing recent winning form on good ground, while Luker's Tipple and Some Song add depth but face stiffer tasks on the given ratings.
KTB Selection Ocastle Des Mottes
This is the narrative read of the 4:18 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
Ocastle Des Mottes and Apple's Of Bresil both tend to make the running or race prominently.
Who is best placed if the strong pace collapses late?
Sky Lord, Luker's Tipple and Some Song are all hold-up types who would benefit from a late collapse.
Which runner has the best recent winning record on good ground?
Apple's Of Bresil has two wins from three starts on good ground.
Has any horse won at Listowel before?
No horse in the field has course form on record that includes a win.
What is the trip question for the second and third principals?
Apple's Of Bresil drops back to an untried 2m1f while Sky Lord steps up in trip.
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