2:16 Ripon
This Class 4 nursery handicap at Ripon over a mile on good ground brings together six two-year-olds with recent experience and varying degrees of form. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 58 and 43, indicating a competitive field where small margins could prove decisive. Forest Berry heads the KTB rankings as the selection after two wins in the last month, while the others include horses stepping up or down in class with questions to answer at this trip.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners in the field. Zarakova and Aphra Behn both tend to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure an honest gallop that could set the race up for late closers. With the pace shape suggesting the possibility of the leaders folding late, hold-up performers are likely to be favoured as the race could be won from off the pace in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Forest Berry KTB Selection58/100
Forest Berry arrives in excellent order as a fair performer who has been busy and won twice in the last month, one of those victories coming at this trip. Drawn on the rail in stall 1, he has a solid record on good ground having won from his only start on the surface. Sir Mark Prescott operates at a 27% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.97 from 86 runs, though the trainer and jockey combination shows an 18% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.89. Luke Morris partners the colt from his hold-up style, usually producing his effort late with high confidence. Stepping up in class, the recent form figures of 424114 underline his progressive profile and he looks set to play a leading role.
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2Zarakova55/100
Zarakova is a fair two-year-old who has already shown useful form at this trip, winning one of her two attempts over a mile. She brings solid recent form with the figures 6215 and has the benefit of a decent draw in stall 4. Andrew Balding holds a 14% strike rate at Ripon from 21 runs while Alistair Rawlinson takes the ride. Dropping in class, she tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence. Unproven on good ground with no runs on the surface, her ability at the trip nevertheless makes her a significant player if the conditions do not prove an issue.
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3Palace Legacy50/100
Palace Legacy has shown fair form across three runs, finishing a solid third last time after two earlier placed efforts with the figures 382. He steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a new question of him. James Tate has a strong 27% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 1.07 from 60 runs and the trainer-jockey combination records a 16% strike rate with an A/E of 1.01. Connor Beasley is in the saddle for this drop in class. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he has one run on good ground without placing and could be suited by the strong pace.
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4Statten Island47/100
Statten Island has shown consistent modest form in four starts at shorter trips, finishing no worse than sixth without looking a star in the making and recording the figures 4446. He now steps up to 1m for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. Kevin Ryan has an 11% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.91 from 642 runs and the trainer-jockey partnership shows a 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.89. Tom Eaves rides from his prominent style, usually racing handily with medium confidence. He has one run on good ground without placing and his overall profile suggests he will need to improve.
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5Cash Cove44/100
Cash Cove is a modest performer on the balance of his six runs with the figures 441304 and looks stretched by this step up to a mile for the first time. He has shown bits of form at shorter trips but his recent efforts have been patchy while dropping in class. Charlie Johnston's yard has an 11% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.64 from 104 runs.
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6Aphra Behn43/100
Aphra Behn has shown consistent modest form, placing in three of her four starts with the figures 3243 including a solid third on her most recent outing. She now steps up to 1m for the first time which asks a fresh question of her while dropping in class. Ralph Beckett's yard has a 23% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.89 from 73 runs and she is placed once from one run on good ground.
KTB verdict
Forest Berry stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer who has been busy and won twice in the last month including at this trip, he has the rail draw, a solid record on good ground and the benefit of a yard operating at a 27% strike rate at Ripon. His hold-up style should be ideally suited if the strong pace materialises as expected. The main dangers are Zarakova, who has already shown useful form at a mile and drops in class from a good draw, and Palace Legacy, who brings fair form and could be helped by the race shape as another hold-up type. Statten Island is next in the KTB order but has more to prove at the trip.
KTB Selection Forest Berry
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 26 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Forest Berry | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Zarakova | 9/4 | 7Bet |
| Palace Legacy | 2/1 | William Hill |
| Statten Island | 18/1 | 7Bet |
| Cash Cove | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Aphra Behn | 11/4 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 2:16 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ripon results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in class?
Forest Berry is stepping up in class.
How many front-runners are there and what does the pace shape suggest?
There are two or more habitual front-runners and the pace shape is strong with high confidence, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which runners are making their first start over a mile?
Palace Legacy, Statten Island, Cash Cove and Aphra Behn are all stepping up to 1m for the first time.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Ripon?
Sir Mark Prescott has a 27% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.97 from 86 runs and James Tate also has a 27% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 1.07 from 60 runs.
Which horse has a win on good ground?
Forest Berry has 1 win from 1 on good ground.
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