1:49 Ffos Las
This Class 5 nursery handicap at Ffos Las over the minimum trip of 5f on soft ground features an 8-runner field of two-year-olds where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly clustered between 58 and 38. The principals are headed by the selection Niewiadoma, who is dropping in class having shown modest form this term, while several others also step down in grade after displaying consistency without winning. With the going unproven for most of the field, the race poses questions about both stamina for the trip and adaptation to the surface.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of multiple front-runners, notably Naval Cop and Perigord Noir who both tend to race on or near the lead. Niewiadoma is likely to track that pace from draw 6 while several hold-up performers including Blondie Larry, Rhodes Runner and Wolf's Gallop will be positioned further back. The key question is whether the pace will collapse in the closing stages on this soft ground, which would play into the hands of the patient runners coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Niewiadoma KTB Selection58/100
Niewiadoma is a modest performer who has won once over this trip from four attempts but has been well below that level in three starts since a promising debut win. She drops back to 5f today after a poor effort over 6f last time having shown recent form figures of 190004. Archie Watson has a solid 16% strike rate at Ffos Las from 87 runs and teams up with Gina Mangan who has a 10% strike rate at the track from 71 rides, while the pair hold a combined record of 2/9 (22%). The lightly-raced filly is unproven on soft ground and has no course form on record, though she is dropping in class from draw 6 where she is expected to race prominently.
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2Naval Cop56/100
Naval Cop is a modest performer who has shown his best form when winning over this trip last time with recent form figures of 46513. Drawn low in stall 2, he is likely to make the running or race on the pace and is dropping in class. Andrew Balding has a 22% strike rate at Ffos Las from 157 runs and pairs with Callum Hutchinson who has a 15% strike rate at the track from 66 rides, their combined record standing at 69/447 (15%) with an A/E of 1.04. He has been placed once from one run on soft ground though remains without a win on it, and the yard's solid record here adds interest despite the going suitability remaining unknown after just five career starts.
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3Blondie Larry56/100
Blondie Larry is a modest performer who has shown consistent form in three starts, finishing second twice at this trip with recent form figures of 522. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is dropping in class and the trip looks suitable on balance. Jamie Osborne has a 17% strike rate at Ffos Las from 75 runs and teams with William Carver who holds a 12% strike rate at the track from 17 rides, their combined record standing at 28/299 (9%) with an A/E of 1.04. The yard's solid record here is a plus but the soft ground remains an unknown as he has had no runs on it.
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4Perigord Noir54/100
Perigord Noir is a modest performer who has shown consistency without winning, placing at this trip on two of three attempts with recent form figures of 344023. He tends to make the running or race on the pace from draw 8 and remains competitive in this grade though lacks a real edge. George Baker has a 10% strike rate at Ffos Las from 31 runs while Benoit de la Sayette boasts a 25% strike rate at the track from just 8 rides, their combined record standing at 4/35 (11%) with an A/E of 1.05. The going remains an unknown on just six career starts.
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5Rhodes Runner53/100
Rhodes Runner is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year, including a win at this trip and a solid fourth here over 6f last time with recent form figures of 246421. Dropping back to 5f should suit on balance though he has never tackled soft ground, and he ran fourth on his only previous visit to Ffos Las. Ralph Beckett has a 25% strike rate at the track from 112 runs.
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6Knock Three Times53/100
Knock Three Times is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form mixed with the odd poor run with recent form figures of 224154. He has twice failed to land a blow at this trip and first-time headgear is now reached for after a patchy recent sequence. Jamie Osborne has a 17% strike rate at Ffos Las from 75 runs and teams with Saffie Osborne.
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7Wolf's Gallop52/100
Wolf's Gallop is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing in the first three twice from five starts including a placed effort at this trip with recent form figures of 73348. Stall one could be an advantage on soft ground at Ffos Las though the small sample on going leaves suitability unconfirmed. Tom Lacey has a 12% strike rate here from 60 runs.
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8Defiant Dream38/100
Defiant Dream is limited on ability and has failed to build on an early second at this track with recent form figures of 92650. Dropping back to 5f is a fresh question after his latest efforts over 6f, though he has placed once at the shorter distance and has course form having finished second here. Mark Usher has an 8% strike rate at Ffos Las from 71 runs.
KTB verdict
Niewiadoma is the KTB Selection. She is a lightly-raced filly who showed promise on debut before winning over this trip, and the drop back to 5f after a poor effort over 6f looks a sensible move while she steps down in class. The Archie Watson yard's solid 16% strike rate at Ffos Las from 87 runs adds to the appeal even if the soft ground is an unknown. Her main dangers are likely to be Naval Cop, who won over the trip last time and has the low draw to make the running, and Blondie Larry who has been consistently placed at this distance and will be suited if the strong pace collapses late.
KTB Selection Niewiadoma
This is the narrative read of the 1:49 Ffos Las. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ffos Las racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ffos Las results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and has won over this trip?
Niewiadoma has won once over this trip from four attempts and is dropping in class.
How many front-runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners are present, with Naval Cop and Perigord Noir both tending to make the running or race on the pace.
Which runners are unproven on soft ground?
Niewiadoma, Blondie Larry, Perigord Noir, Rhodes Runner, Knock Three Times and Wolf's Gallop have no runs on soft.
Who has course form at Ffos Las?
Rhodes Runner finished fourth on his only start here while Defiant Dream has finished second on his only visit to the track.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Knock Three Times is fitted with first-time headgear.
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