4:33 Hexham
This Class 5 handicap chase at Hexham over 2m4f15y on good ground forms part of the Go North Monet's Garden Series and features a compact field of five. KTB's Fit Scores identify a clear top three, headed by Kinbara Firstdraft on 56, with Soldier In Mayo close behind on 53 and Jack Doyen on 49, while the other pair sit on 40. The race is notable for the KTB Selection dropping in class and trying first-time headgear, against rivals who bring mixed course records and recent form.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with medium confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. Soldier In Mayo is the clear front-runner who tends to make the running or race prominently, while the other four are all held-up types who produce their effort late. This sets up a key question of whether the leader can dictate unchallenged or if the late runners, including the selection, can bridge the gap on this stiff track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Kinbara Firstdraft KTB Selection56/100
Kinbara Firstdraft is a useful performer who has been consistent enough without winning for a while, with recent form reading 454695. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance in the past, though first-time headgear is now fitted after a string of ordinary efforts. The seven-year-old is dropping in class and is held up, usually producing his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. Trainer Leonard Kerr has a 6% strike rate at Hexham from 16 runs with an A/E of 1.07, while Derek Fox rides with a 12% strike rate at the track from 329 rides and an A/E of 0.8. The horse has a modest record on good ground with one win from 13 starts and has no previous course form on record.
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2Soldier In Mayo53/100
Soldier In Mayo is a useful performer who showed his best yet when second on return at this trip last time. He has already placed twice over today's distance and handles good ground with one win and three places from three starts. The six-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence in that run-style, which aligns perfectly with the expected lone-leader pace shape. Trainer Donald McCain has a 13% strike rate at Hexham from 336 runs with an A/E of 0.62, though Theo Gillard has a 5% strike rate at the track from 58 rides with an A/E of 0.56. He ran once here, finishing fourth with no win or place, and his recent form reads 43/1-2.
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3Jack Doyen49/100
Jack Doyen is a fair performer who has won twice at today's trip but is dropping back in distance after his last run over 2m6½f. He has placed on his only visit to Hexham, finishing second, and possesses a solid record on good ground with two wins and five places from nine starts. The ten-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. Trainer Ben Case has a 0% strike rate at Hexham from two runs with an A/E of 0, while Jack Quinlan has no record at the track. His recent form reads 1-21U5.
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4Blazing Court40/100
Blazing Court is a fair performer who has been out of form this year and was pulled up or well beaten on his last three completed starts. He has run just once at Hexham, finishing a modest fourth, while the trainer's 5% strike rate from 146 runs here adds little confidence. The eight-year-old drops back in trip to a distance he has won at before but his record on good ground is ordinary with only one success from 21 starts, and he is held up with high confidence in that run-style. Recent form reads -UP720.
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5Illogical Logic40/100
Illogical Logic is a fair performer who showed a bit more when winning a 2m5f handicap at Southwell last month before running no sort of race at Market Rasen. He drops back to a trip he has tried twice without success and makes his first start at Hexham. The trainer's 2% strike rate from 122 runs here is poor, and the jockey has a 0% strike rate at the track from six rides. The eight-year-old is held up with medium confidence in that run-style and has two wins from 13 starts on good ground. Recent form reads 6P-521.
KTB verdict
Kinbara Firstdraft stands out as the KTB Selection. He brings useful ability, is dropping in class, steps up to a trip he has won over before, and now tries first-time headgear after a series of ordinary efforts that still showed consistency. The held-up run-style should see him delivered late against an uncontested leader, and the combination of class relief and the new headgear gives him the strongest profile. Soldier In Mayo is the obvious danger as the front-runner who can dictate the race, while Jack Doyen cannot be dismissed on his Hexham placing and good-ground record.
KTB Selection Kinbara Firstdraft
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Kinbara Firstdraft | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Soldier In Mayo | evn | 7Bet |
| Jack Doyen | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Blazing Court | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Illogical Logic | 15/8 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 4:33 Hexham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hexham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hexham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and trying first-time headgear?
Kinbara Firstdraft
Who is the expected lone leader in this race?
Soldier In Mayo
Which runner has placed on its only previous visit to Hexham?
Jack Doyen
How many wins has Illogical Logic had from 13 starts on good ground?
Two
What is the trainer strike rate at Hexham for the handler of the KTB Selection?
6% from 16 runs
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